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The first round of the 2022 FCS playoffs brought plenty of fireworks -- games with scores like 52-42, 52-41, 45-42 and 38-31 -- and a couple of down-to-the-wire finishes. Now the heavyweights join the party. Saturday's round of 16 will introduce the top eight seeds to the fray and give us both some awesome helmet games (North Dakota State-Montana! South Dakota State-Delaware! Montana State-Weber State!) and prime opportunities for some up-and-comers. First, here are the second-round pairings and their corresponding SP+ projections. (Full FCS, Division II and Division III SP+ ratings are housed here. All times are Eastern, and all games will be on ESPN+. • No. 8 Holy Cross 35.5, New Hampshire 26.2 (noon)
• No. 7 Incarnate Word 36.2, Furman 32.3 (2 p.m.)
• No. 5 William & Mary 35.8, Gardner-Webb 25.3 (2 p.m.)
• No. 4 Montana State 33.2, Weber State 30.1 (3 p.m.)
• No. 6 Samford 38.2, Southeastern Louisiana 29.7 (3 p.m.)
• No. 1 South Dakota State 36.7, Delaware 30.6 (3 p.m.)
• No. 3 North Dakota State 34.1, Montana 31.3 (3:30 p.m.)
• No. 2 Sacramento State 36.9, Richmond 27.2 (5 p.m.) All of the seeded home teams are projected favorites, which feels pretty chalky, but four of the eight games are projected within six points. Chaos is not far from the surface.
Round 2's marquee gamesThe two teams that reached last year's FCS finals were certainly done no favors by the bracket-makers. Both North Dakota State and Montana State have their work cut out for them as they attempt to pull off another strong playoff run. Is NDSU going to shift into fifth gear now?
Montana at No. 3 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+) At the start of this year's playoffs, one of the main stories was newness. Only nine of last year's 24 playoff teams made the field this year, annual contenders like James Madison (left for FBS) and Jacksonville State (getting ready to) weren't eligible, and up-and-comers like Sacramento State, William & Mary and Samford landed top-6 seeds. Among all the new, however, are some old reliables. That includes the most reliable, North Dakota State. Winners of nine of the last 11 titles, the Bison have been definitively ... fine this year. They are 9-2 with losses only to an FBS team (Arizona) and No. 1 seed South Dakota State, and they rank fifth in SP+. As you'll find below, they have some of the best title odds in the field. Few teams would have complaints if they had played like NDSU has this season. Their title odds are about one-third as strong as they were at this point in last year's playoffs, however. NDSU's fullback-heavy offense is as ruthlessly efficient as ever -- running backs Hunter Luepke, TaMerik Williams and Kobe Johnson have combined for 1,688 rushing yards (6.8 per carry) and 19 touchdowns, and quarterback Cam Miller has completed 69% of his passes with only two picks -- but the defense has suffered more moments of vulnerability than normal. They gave up more than 6 yards per play in both losses, they were outgained by Southern Illinois, and they allowed 6.2 yards per play in a near-upset by lowly Indiana State. More than anyone else in FCS, however, NDSU understands the importance of peaking late. In 2015's title run, for instance, they lost to South Dakota and fought through three other one-score Missouri Valley games but won four playoff games by an average of 24 points. In 2014, they got thumped by Northern Iowa three weeks before the playoffs, then ran the table. Maybe their season-ending 42-21 thumping of North Dakota (a playoff team) was a sign that they're shifting into fifth gear. They better be, because Montana is talented, battle-tested and sixth in SP+. If the NDSU of the regular season shows up, this is going to be a nip-and-tuck game.
The Big Sky season continues in Bozeman
Weber State at No. 4 Montana State (3 p.m., ESPN+) After a long run of Missouri Valley dominance, the Big Sky took over the FCS universe in 2022. It boasts the highest SP+ average in the subdivision, with four teams in the current top six and six in the top 18. The problem with having that many good teams in your conference is, someone has to lose games. And when they do that, they don't get seeded. Weber State is currently 10-2; the Wildcats blew out FBS' Utah State in September and lost only to 2-seed Sacramento State and 4-seed Montana State by a combined eight points, but they ended up unseeded and, after a 38-31 win over North Dakota last Saturday, they draw Montana State once again in the round of 16. This is a bad break for WSU, of course, but it might be an even worse one for Montana State. Last year's national runners-up have lost only to Oregon State this season, and the Bobcats' reward for going unbeaten in FCS' best conference is a rematch with a team they barely beat earlier this year! Their losses are our gain. These teams' first meeting was one of the most bonkers games you'll ever see. It had four safeties, two kick return scores, 273 rushing yards from MSU quarterback Tommy Mellott and runs of 21-0 (WSU), 34-0 (MSU) and 14-0 (WSU). Montana State led by 19 late in the third quarter but wasn't safe until a fourth-down pass from their 27 fell incomplete in the final 30 seconds. If the rematch is even half as good, it might be the best college football game at any level on Saturday.
Round 2's marquee playerNew Hampshire is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017, and junior running back Dylan Laube has already made sure the Wildcats' stay is a memorable one. In last week's wild 52-42 win over Fordham, he scored on an 87-yard catch-and-run four minutes into the game, added three rushing touchdowns and finished his day with 157 rushing yards, 127 receiving yards, 119 kick return yards and 21 punt return yards. I'm disappointed head coach Rick Santos didn't put him in on defense to see if he could pick off a pass and return it for big yardage, too. UNH came on strong late in 2022, winning five of its last six (with only a tight loss to Richmond) and surviving an overtime battle with Maine to eke out a playoff bid. And now that they've survived a track meet against offense-heavy Fordham, Laube and company head to Worcester to face a Holy Cross team that hasn't lost since last year's round of 16. While UNH was led by a run-and-catch threat last week, Holy Cross is led by a run-and-pass threat. Quarterback Matthew Sluka has thrown for 2,301 yards and 25 touchdowns and leads the team with 918 rushing yards, too. Jalen Coker averages 20 yards per catch out wide, too, and this game might have as much track-meet potential as UNH-Fordham did. Whether it's Laube, Sluka, Coker or someone else, odds are good that this game is going to produce some silly stat lines.
Updated title oddsLast week, I took a look at each team's national title odds, per SP+ projections. Let's do the same here. The long shots 16. New Hampshire: 0.7%. At 31st in SP+, the Wildcats are the lowest-ranked team remaining in the field. If Laube can remain in Heisman mode, UNH certainly has the defense to win another game or two, but winning four more is likely too much to ask. 15. Gardner-Webb: 0.9%. The Runnin' Bulldogs are now 1-0 all-time in the playoffs! They took down Eastern Kentucky 52-41 to earn a shot at William & Mary, and if they run the ball as well against the Tribe -- Narii Gaither had 245 yards and two scores against EKU -- they'll have a shot at another upset. 14. Southeastern Louisiana: 1.1%. Saturday's 45-42 win over Idaho was glorious; the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points (including two return scores), and SELA survived when Idaho missed a field goal at the buzzer. May Saturday's visit to Samford be equally entertaining. 13. Furman: 2.5%. The Paladins controlled Elon 31-6 last week and jumped to 20th in SP+. Saturday's offense-heavy opponent, UIW, ranks only slightly higher, so it wouldn't take many breaks for Clay Hendrix's squad to advance a bit further in the competition. 12. Richmond: 2.9%. Russ Huesman's Spiders are nicely balanced and manhandled Davidson a week ago, but now the degree of difficulty picks up: Next up is a trip across the country to face SP+ favorite Sacramento State. A puncher's chance 11. Incarnate Word: 4.5%. Since losing to Southeastern Louisiana in September, G.J. Kinne's Cardinals have taken no prisoners, winning their last seven games by an average score of 57-12. Great competition? Not really. But 57-12! QB Lindsey Scott Jr., playing for his fifth college team, has 3,791 passing yards and 50 TDs; every UIW game is a track meet, and they're very good at winning track meets.  10. Delaware: 4.5%. Everything went according to plan for the Blue Hens against Saint Francis last week -- quarterback Nolan Henderson threw for 266 yards and four touchdowns, do-everything linebacker Johnny Buchanan had his requisite 15 tackles, and Delaware cruised, 56-17 -- but now it's time to go to Brookings to face the top-seed, SDSU. 9. Holy Cross: 5.7%. The Crusaders have been far too much for the Patriot League in recent years and raised their game when required, beating FBS' Buffalo with late Hail Mary heroics and beating two of the Ivy League's best teams (Yale and Harvard) by a combined 33 points. Can they take down Laube and UNH and potentially earn a shot at the top-seed in the quarterfinals? 8. Montana: 6.0%. The Grizz looked like they might be out of gas last week, responding to their blowout loss to rival Montana State by falling behind SE Missouri State 24-3 early in the third quarter. But they charged back to win by 10 thanks to two return scores and two Lucas Johnson touchdown passes, and now they get a shot at another heavyweight. Three of their four losses have come to teams currently ranked first, third and fourth in SP+; now they head to Fargo to play the team ranked fifth. 7. Samford: 6.5%. Samford hasn't won a playoff game since 1991 and will have to strap its track shoes on to host SELA. This is a really solid Bulldogs team, though, one that has only lost to Georgia (and by only 33 at that) and beat two ranked teams (Chattanooga and Mercer) to finish the regular season. Chris Hatcher's quick passing game has gone to a new level of efficiency with QB Michael Hiers running the show. 6. Weber State: 6.7%. Jay Hill's Wildcats lost only twice this season, to top-four seeds Sacramento State and Montana State by a combined eight points. Despite falling asleep late and nearly letting North Dakota catch up, their 38-31 win granted them a return trip to Bozeman and a shot at avenging one of those losses. And who knows, they might get a second shot at Sac State, too, if they keep winning. The vice-favorites 5. William & Mary: 8.1%. Mike London's Tribe have running backs and linebackers in droves and haven't lost since suffering a home upset against Elon in September. They won a share of their first Colonial title since 2015, and if chalk holds, they could head to Bozeman next weekend for a ridiculously physical battle with Montana State. But first they have to tackle Narii Gaither and Gardner-Webb. 4. North Dakota State: 8.4%. For all we know, Hunter Luepke and the arsenal of Bison fullbacks will run wild over four games, big Spencer Waege and the NDSU pass rush will wreak havoc, and NDSU's physicality will earn them FCS title No. 10. But the last two times they've looked this vulnerable heading into the playoffs were during the spring 2021 season (quarterfinal loss) and 2016 (semifinal loss). They've got more than normal to prove at the moment. 3. Montana State: 10.0%. Quarterback Tommy Mellott got to rest his achy bones during MSU's bye week -- he averaged 18 carries per game over MSU's final four games and racked up 32 of them for 273 yards the last time the Bobcats played Weber State. If MSU indeed makes another run at the title, he will likely take a lot of hits in the process. (He'll dish out a few, too.) 2. South Dakota State: 12.4%. The defense labored through a couple of wobbly recent outings, but the Jackrabbits still have the most to offer when it comes to both recent history (three semifinal-or-better performances in four years) and current form. They're loaded with playoff veterans, and with 15 interceptions and 29 sacks, they've got maybe the most active pass defense in FCS. This is as good a title chance as any. The favorite (as much as there is one this year) 
1. Sacramento State: 19.2%. At this point last year, NDSU was the clear front-runner with a 28% shot at the title. (The Bison more than lived up to their front-runner status.) The fact that Sac State currently leads the way at 19% tells you quite a bit about how wide open this field is. Still, it also says something that the Hornets are the favorites. They have a spectacular lack of playoff history to make up for, but they have been the best team in FCS to date. They've perfected a two-QB approach -- the pass-first Jake Dunniway pairing with the run-first Asher O'Hara -- and they've got star power on both sides of the ball. If they bring their regular-season form to the postseason, their title chances are strong. But we never know if you will until you do.
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