FCS quarterfinals: Top games, key player, updated title odds

There were two main questions heading into last week's FCS playoff action: Would the powerhouse programs begin looking the part now that they had to, and would the high-ranking upstarts meet the moment?

To the former question, the answer was a resounding yes. North Dakota State, the preeminent FCS program for the past decade, entered the playoffs having only occasionally flashed fifth gear in the regular season, but began this year's run with a dominant, 23-point win over Montana. Top-seeded South Dakota State, which had looked the part more than NDSU this season, continued to do so with a blowout of Delaware.

The answers to the latter question were mixed but eventually affirmative. No. 5 seed William & Mary reached the quarterfinals for the first time since 2009 with a blowout of Gardner-Webb, and No. 8 Holy Cross kept New Hampshire at arm's length in a 16-point win. But No. 6 Samford and No. 7 Incarnate Word both needed full time to get past Southeastern Louisiana and Furman, respectively, and unbeaten No. 2 seed Sacramento State, the projected favorite per SP+ (which doesn't take playoff history into account), fell behind Richmond by two touchdowns in rainy conditions before rallying to win by 7.

The top eight seeds indeed advanced, which could make for a dynamite set of evenly matched quarterfinals.

Here is what SP+ projects for the four matchups, three of which take place Friday evening.

• No. 3 North Dakota State 37.1, No. 6 Samford 31.5 (Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

• No. 4 Montana State 34.0, No. 5 William & Mary 30.2 (Friday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN2)

• No. 2 Sacramento State 39.0, No. 7 Incarnate Word 31.5 (Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN+)

• No. 1 South Dakota State 40.6, No. 8 Holy Cross 30.9 (Saturday, noon, ESPN)

Here's what to pay closest attention to this week.

Round 3's marquee game: Samford at North Dakota State

I mean, they're all marquee games by the time you reach the quarterfinals. William & Mary is stout, balanced and physical enough to trade blows with Tommy Mellott and Montana State. Incarnate Word's YOLO offense can score in batches on anyone. Holy Cross is well versed at winning in the cold and gray conditions that await at South Dakota State. These are all intriguing games.

Still, I can't stop thinking about Samford's trip up north. There is a decent chance it becomes the type of customary quarterfinal blowout North Dakota State has won a million times before: Of the Bison's last five quarterfinal victories, four have come by at least 24 points as they've shifted into "destroy" mode for the stretch run. But there's nothing customary about Samford's Chris Hatcher or his Bulldogs' path to this point.

Hatcher was the original son of the Air Raid. When Hal Mumme and Mike Leach, progenitors of the air-it-out style that so thoroughly changed college football over the last 30 years, arrived at Valdosta State in 1992, they found, in Hatcher, the best possible lump of clay for molding to their system. By the time he graduated, he had set more than 20 career passing records at VSU and won the Harlon Hill Trophy, aka the Division II Heisman.

By the time he was 27, Hatcher was Valdosta State's head coach. By the time he was 31, he had won a national title there. His coaching potential seemed off the charts, but when he moved to Georgia Southern in 2007, the progress stopped. His attempts to change the ways of the option-based program at Southern resulted in just an 18-15 record over three seasons, and he was fired after going 5-6 in 2009. He landed at Murray State and went 27-30 over three seasons there. And after a solid start at Samford, with playoff bids in 2016 and 2017, everything seemed to be playing out in a similar way there too. The Bulldogs went a combined 19-22 from 2018 to 2021 and were voted sixth out of nine teams in this year's Southern Conference preseason coaches poll.

But they went unbeaten in the SoCon. They're 11-1 overall. Quarterback Michael Hiers, a transfer from Northwest Mississippi Community College, has completed an incredible 77% of his passes with 35 touchdowns and only three picks. He's exactly the kind of quick passer we've come to expect from the Air Raid, but the Bulldogs proved last week that they could throw a pretty good curveball too. With Hiers injured, redshirt freshman Quincy Crittendon came in against Southeastern Louisiana and not only completed 26 of 40 passes for 314 yards but also rushed 19 times for 106 yards. He threw for four touchdowns to stake the Bulldogs to a pair of second-half leads, and when SLU responded, so did Crittendon. His 10-yard score in overtime gave the Bulldogs their first playoff victory since 1991. Hiers' status for Friday night is unclear, but Crittendon brings something interesting to the table in his own right.

The dreams of many up-and-comers have died in the Fargodome, and it's possible -- likely, even -- that Samford's will Friday night as well. But North Dakota State's defense has been vulnerable at times this season, and there's a chance Samford can match the Bison score for score.

Make no mistake: NDSU will score. A lot. Even without injured star back Hunter Luepke, the Bison still ground Montana into a paste last week. Kobe Johnson and TaMerik Williams rushed 23 times for 307 yards and three touchdowns; Johnson, Williams and quarterback Cam Miller all produced touchdown runs of at least 68 yards (Johnson had two), and NDSU turned a tight 21-13 halftime score into a 49-26 laugher. Samford's only loss this season was to Georgia, so the Bulldogs understand what it's like to go against a relentlessly physical attack, but that doesn't mean they're actually prepared for it.

Still, while NDSU ranks third in offensive SP+ this season, the Bison rank an uncharacteristic 44th on defense. Their pass rush, led by big Spencer Waege, is nasty and was the only reason they led Montana at halftime. They forced a field goal early in the second quarter thanks to a Jaxon Duttenhefer sack, and they scored on a fumble recovery after a Kody Huisman strip sack. Montana was able to drive 60-plus yards on four occasions against the Bison, and Samford's offense grades out better than the Grizzlies'. If Hiers or Crittendon can neutralize the NDSU pass rush with quick throws, Samford could make things interesting.

Then again, they've made things interesting just by getting to this point. Hatcher's renaissance has been a surprise. We'll see if the Bulldogs have another surprise in store Friday evening.

Round 3's marquee player: Lindsey Scott Jr., Incarnate Word

The most "no, no, no ... YES!" quarterback in the Football Championship Subdivision.