FCS semifinals: Previewing North Dakota State-Incarnate Word, Montana State-South Dakota State

There are two ways to look at that pair of teams. On one hand, the Dukes and Bearkats were top-four seeds and clear "If someone besides NDSU wins this thing, they're near the top of the list" contenders. But on the other hand, both were relative upstarts. Before JMU's run in 2016, the Dukes had gone just 1-3 in the FCS playoffs over the previous seven years. And before their title run in the COVID-19-delayed spring 2021 season, K.C. Keeler's Sam Houston State squad had missed the playoffs in 2018 and 2019; its last playoff game had been a 42-point loss to NDSU.

Granted, both JMU and SHSU had stronger histories than Incarnate Word has; JMU had won the 2004 title, and SHSU was runner-up to NDSU in both the 2011 and 2012 national finals. UIW's football program, meanwhile, didn't exist until 2009; the Cardinals moved up to FCS in 2013 and had played in only one playoff game before 2021. They are the No. 7 overall seed -- NDSU is 27-0 against teams seeded outside the top four since 2011 -- and SP+ gave them just a 5% chance of running the table when the playoffs started. But in the rare instance in which NDSU has lost a playoff game, it has been to a usurper-style team, not necessarily an in-form power like South Dakota State or one of the Montanas.

Lindsey Scott Jr. might be the ultimate usurper this season. The seventh-year senior teamed up with offense-happy head coach G.J. Kinne to produce patently absurd numbers. Scott has thrown for 4,404 yards and 59 touchdowns while rushing for 632 yards and nine more scores. Receivers Darion Chafin and Taylor Grimes have combined for 2,355 receiving yards and 32 touchdowns, and UIW hasn't been held under 31 points all season. The Cardinals have scored at least 66 in three of their past four games.

They probably aren't going to score 66 on NDSU. Call it a hunch. But this is definitely a unique test for the Bison.

Of course, for all of the Cardinals' offensive prowess, they also have to stop NDSU. Sac State rushed for 333 yards on Incarnate Word last week, and no one is more willing to shove teams around for 60 minutes than NDSU. The Bison have been hit hard by injury, both at running back and on the offensive line, but that only matters so much with the assembly line they've got in place. Backs Hunter Luepke and TaMerik Williams are out? They've still got Kobe Johnson. A couple of linemen are out too? They've still got All-American tackle Cody Mauch and guard Nash Jensen, who will be playing in his 69th career game.

UIW's defensive potential seems high with Kelechi Anyalebechi at linebacker and FBS transfers Chris Whittaker (7.5 sacks) and Olivier Charles-Pierre (6.5 tackles for loss at 375 pounds), but if the Cardinals aren't making a disruptive play, they're giving one up. NDSU is the favorite for a reason, but pinning Scott & Co. down and keeping them down will be quite the chore.

Montana State-South Dakota State is as FCS as it gets

Just keep fielding awesome teams, and eventually the breaks will come your way. It worked for Nebraska's Tom Osborne, it worked for Texas' Mack Brown, and it might still eventually work for John Stiegelmeier. In his 24 years at South Dakota State, he has slowly converted the Jackrabbits from a decent Division II program to a decent FCS program to a powerhouse.

First, they became an annual postseason presence, reaching the FCS playoffs five times from 2009 to 2015 but never advancing past the second round. In 2016, they reached the quarterfinals; in 2017, the semis. This is their fifth semifinal appearance in the past six years, but they're still awaiting the ultimate breakthrough. They're just 1-4 in the semis, and their lone win, in the spring of 2021, was followed by a heartbreaking loss to Sam Houston.

Last year's semifinal loss, 31-17 at Montana State, was SDSU's last against an FCS team. The Jacks began 2022 with a narrow defeat at Iowa but have since won 12 straight. They beat NDSU in the Fargodome, and they've won their past seven home games by an average of 29 points. They took some early haymakers from a game Holy Cross team in last week's quarterfinals but scored the last 21 points to cruise to a 42-21 win. This is a mature offense with key veterans everywhere you look, from quarterback Mark Gronowski to running back Isaiah Davis to receivers Jaxon and Jadon Janke, and the Jacks are more than content to both wait you out and wear you down.

Like SDSU, Montana State has lost only to an FBS opponent (Oregon State) since last year's playoffs and is peaking at the right time. After some early close calls in the rugged Big Sky, the Bobcats have won their past four games by an average score of 54-20. They destroyed No. 5 seed William & Mary 55-7 last week, allowing just 197 total yards and giving the Tribe a single snap in MSU territory until deep into garbage time. The 1984 national champions had fallen off course a bit through the years but perked up under Jeff Choate, making the semis in 2019, and have picked up more steam in two seasons under Brent Vigen.

The weather for this SDSU revenge attempt is expected to be everything one envisions when thinking of South Dakota in mid-December: mostly gray with a high of 9 degrees. Neither of these two northern programs should mind too much, but the hard hits will sting a bit more than usual. And there will be lots of hard hits. Both defenses feature some nasty front-seven talent -- linebackers Callahan O'Reilly and Ty Okada for MSU, linemen Reece Winkelman and Caleb Sanders for SDSU -- and both teams will run the ball as much as they're allowed.

The Jacks ride Davis, who carried 20 times for 154 yards and a score last week and has 1,190 yards for the season. The Bobcats, however, may have a couple of trump cards. FCS All-American Isaiah Ifanse missed the entire regular season with a knee injury but has rushed 21 times for 254 yards in the past two weeks, relegating 700-yard rusher Elijah Elliott to second string. Perhaps even more intriguing, however, is the running ability of Montana State's quarterbacks. SDSU struggled to contain Holy Cross QB Matthew Sluka last week (26 carries, 213 yards), and the MSU combo of starter Tommy Mellott and backup Sean Chambers has combined to rush for 1,893 yards and 30 touchdowns. This is a run-first, run-second, burn-you-deep-third offense, and SDSU must be as disciplined as it is physical to contain it.

Updated FCS title odds

Each week, I take a look at every remaining team's national title odds, per SP+ projections. Here are this week's projections.

4. Incarnate Word 12.4%. The Cardinals' reward for taking down an elite team in Sacramento State is having to take down two more to win the title. They are to the FCS playoffs what Morocco has been to the World Cup -- a thrilling story and a team unlikely to go all the way. (If they prove me wrong, it'll be an absolute delight.)

3. Montana State 24.4%. Vigen's Bobcats looked the best of any team last week, and obviously SP+ projections don't take "They suddenly added an All-American running back to what was already the most prolific run game in FCS" into account. A case could be made that their odds should be higher, but two heavyweights still likely stand in the way.

2. North Dakota State 30.2%. The Bison offense started slowly against Samford last week, but the defense came up big in an easy win. Against UIW, "coming up big" might mean simply holding the Cardinals to 30 or so points. The banged-up offense will need to be in tip-top form, but when you've won nine of the past 11 national titles, it's pretty easy to just assume you'll figure out a way once again. The burden of proof is on everyone else.

1. South Dakota State 33.1%. Quite a few SDSU veterans were contributors to the team that came achingly close to a title in the 2021 spring season. They have brushed aside every FCS opponent this season and honestly should have beaten Iowa as well. Plus, they get Montana State on their turf this time. The 65-year-old Stiegelmeier has accomplished an absurd amount in Brookings, and this is one hell of an opportunity for him to cross off the only unchecked box remaining on his career to-do list. Can the Jacks get it done this time?