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Three weeks remain in college football's regular season, and things continue to feel as delightfully messy as ever. The SEC could end up with anywhere from three to five teams in the College Football Playoff (though the CFP committee's most recent rankings suggest three or four is more likely than five). The ACC race got a little messier with Miami's fatal flaw costing it a game in Atlanta. BYU's insistence on winning ridiculously dramatic games has kept a bit of a lid on potential chaos in the Big 12, but the Cougars still have quite a bit of work to do to win the conference, score a CFP bid or both. And Army might still hold the key to some genuinely chaotic scenarios, at least if the CFP committee learns to respect what the troops have done on the field at some point. The second CFP rankings gave us quite a few "Wait, what?" moments, so let's again walk through what stands out from the rankings and who is in the best shape for each conference race. There's more to track than ever, and we're having quite a bit of fun doing so. Jump to a section:
CFP picture
SEC | Big Ten
ACC | Big 12
Group of 5
 What stood out in this week's CFP rankings?Does the CFP committee think the Big Ten and ACC are better than the SEC? I enjoy independent thinking, but I've got to say, that feels like a reach. Still, the most recent CFP rankings certainly make the case that the SEC isn't getting treated like the best conference in the sport. They also suggest that your raw record matters over anything else -- unless you're Army -- and that I need to figure out a new formula. A few years ago I learned that by combining poll averages (AP and coaches' polls) with a computer average derived from both power ratings (SP+ and the FPI) and résumé ratings (résumé SP+ and strength of record), we could approximate the CFP committee's thinking pretty well. This almost BCS-style rating lined up with what the committee produces most of the time, enough so that when the committee strayed into something different, it stood out. And honestly, quite a bit is standing out at the moment. Here's what this BCS-style approach produced this week, along with where the committee disagreed. They disagreed a lot. BCS-style rankings: 1. Oregon (10-0)
2. Ohio State (8-1)
3. Texas (8-1)
4. Tennessee (8-1), 7th in CFP rankings
5. Penn State (8-1), 4th in CFP rankings
6. Indiana (10-0), 5th in CFP rankings
7. Notre Dame (8-1), 8th in CFP rankings
8. BYU (9-0), 6th in CFP rankings
9. Alabama (7-2), 10th in CFP rankings
10. Georgia (7-2), 12th in CFP rankings
11. Ole Miss (8-2)
12. Miami (9-1), 9th in CFP rankings
13. SMU (8-1), 14th in CFP rankings
14. Boise State (8-1), 13th in CFP rankings
15. Texas A&M (7-2)
16. Clemson (7-2), 20th in CFP rankings
17. Army (9-0), 24th in CFP rankings
18. Colorado (7-2), 17th in CFP rankings
19. Washington State (8-1), 18th in CFP rankings
20. Kansas State (7-2), 16th in CFP rankings
21. LSU (6-3), 22nd in CFP rankings
22. Missouri (7-2), 23rd in CFP rankings
23. South Carolina (6-3), 21st in CFP rankings
24. Louisville (6-3), 19th in CFP rankings
25. Iowa State (7-2), unranked in CFP rankings Tennessee is ranked four spots lower than projected, Georgia is two spots lower, Clemson is four spots lower and Army is seven spots lower. We'll avoid an Army discussion at the moment because in two weeks the Black Knights play Notre Dame, and either they win that game and soar up the rankings or lose and fall out. But Tennessee's status is interesting. The committee had the Volunteers ranked ahead of two unbeaten teams (Indiana and BYU) last week but bumped both the Hoosiers and Cougars up after they beat 5-5 Michigan and 4-5 Utah, respectively, by small margins. Showing unbeaten teams respect for not losing is great, but why did they do that now and not a week ago? Who does the committee like more than the formula by a notable amount? BYU (two spots), Miami (three spots), Kansas State (four spots), Louisville (five spots) and South Carolina (two spots). In all, three Big 12 teams are ranked a combined seven spots higher than the formula projected, four ACC teams are a combined three spots higher, and four Big Ten teams are a combined two spots higher. Meanwhile, four Group of 5 teams are a combined four spots lower (all because of Army), and nine SEC teams are a combined six spots lower. One thing the committee is doing that I like: rewarding unbeaten teams. Granted, Florida State fans probably aren't particularly impressed with that, but the three remaining power conference unbeatens -- Oregon, Indiana and BYU -- rank a combined three spots higher than expected, while seven two-loss teams are a combined four spots lower. I'm honestly good with that, though it makes the committee's treatment of Army more confusing. In all, you know it's a pretty interesting set of rankings when the most aggrieved parties are the SEC and the Pentagon. Regardless, it looks like I need to come up with a new formula to use because this committee is straying quite a bit from my current one. On to the conference projections. Things are only getting messier in the SEC.
 SEC forecast
 SP+ title odds: Texas (38.6%), Alabama (26.6%), Tennessee (15.1%), Texas A&M (7.4%), Georgia (7.3%), LSU (4.2%) We billed Week 11 as a Separation Saturday of sorts in the SEC, and it did its job. After Alabama's blowout of LSU and Ole Miss' surprisingly easy win over Georgia, the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs basically switched places in the SEC hierarchy. Bama's title odds improved by 14.1 percentage points, while Georgia's plummeted by 18.0. Week 11 also brought us closer to an epic logjam. Right now, three SEC teams have one loss in conference play (5-1 Tennessee, 5-1 Texas A&M and 4-1 Texas), while five have two losses (5-2 Georgia, 4-2 Alabama, 4-2 Ole Miss, 3-2 LSU, 3-2 Missouri). If Georgia beats Tennessee as projected this coming week, that would dump the Vols into the two-loss pile as well, and since the season ends with Texas at Texas A&M, that's another potential two-loss team. And outside of Texas-A&M and UGA-Tennessee, none of these teams play each other from here on out. We're pretty much guaranteed chaos of some sort here: Either chalk holds and we end up with a massive tie near the top of the standings, or upsets knock some of these teams down, entertaining us while clarifying the picture. If Tennessee upsets Georgia on Saturday, for instance, the Vols would be one win away from a 7-1 finish and a guaranteed spot in Atlanta, but they would still need to take down Diego Pavia and upset-minded Vanderbilt to get there. This is a long way of saying that you might want to get acquainted with the SEC's tiebreaker rules. (I would say the SEC might want to get moving on that whole "moving to nine-game conference schedules" thing to help sort teams out better, but considering the CFP committee's early rankings and punishment of losses, I'm guessing that's not going to be a priority.) That said, Alabama is in good shape to win just about any tiebreaker it faces thanks to a tough schedule and a pair of key results: its win over LSU and Ole Miss' corresponding loss to LSU. With one of the key tiebreakers being "record against common opponents," that will give the Tide the edge over the Rebels, who are the other team most likely to finish 6-2, per SP+. But if the Tide lose to Oklahoma or Auburn down the stretch -- unlikely, but hey, you never know -- all bets are off. Ole Miss is in a sort of limbo. The Rebels have almost no shot at a spot in the title game because of the aforementioned guaranteed tiebreaker loss with Alabama and the fact that their conference schedule is weaker than average. But they also have an 85% chance of winning out and finishing 10-2, per SP+, which would give them excellent CFP odds. I think. With the bunching of teams from ninth to 15th in the CFP rankings -- a group of seven that includes three two-loss SEC teams and four potential conference champions in Miami, Boise State and SMU -- the chips could fall in any number of ways. Regardless, while Ole Miss can't really play its way into the field with future big wins, the Rebels are less likely than others to play their way out of it.
 Big Ten forecast
SP+ title odds: Oregon (47.5%), Ohio State (39.9%), Indiana (8.6%), Penn State (4.0%) For as blurry as the SEC remains, the Big Ten is as clear as ever: Oregon is your favorite, the winner of Week 13's Indiana at Ohio State game (right now, SP+ indicates there's a 78% chance it will be the Buckeyes) is your No. 2 favorite, and Penn State is around to swoop in just in case something wild happens. We knew the Big Ten would be top-heavy this year: It always is. But even with Indiana's exhilarating rise, the current state of the conference is pretty mind-boggling. The four teams above are a combined 36-2 -- 2-2 against each other and 34-0 against everyone else. After those four, however, are 13 teams with four to six wins. Illinois is 6-3, and the rest are either 6-4, 5-4, 5-5 or 4-5. (Purdue brings up the rear at a dire 1-8.) The Big Ten might have broken geography once and for all after its latest expansion moves, but it has somehow become more Big Ten than ever.
 ACC forecast
SP+ title odds: Miami (48.1%), SMU (39.7%), Clemson (9.3%) We knew Miami's sketchy defense could cost the Hurricanes at some point; the only question was when. They had allowed at least 31 points in four of their past five wins, remaining unbeaten only because of quarterback Cam Ward, wide receiver Xavier Restrepo and their ongoing heroics. But while Miami allowed only 28 points to Georgia Tech on Saturday, don't mistake which unit was more to blame for the Canes' five-point upset loss. Ward and the offense did fail on three fourth-down attempts but averaged 6.9 yards per play and finished eight of nine full possessions in Yellow Jackets territory. The defense, however, allowed touchdown drives of 85, 75, 75 and 61 yards -- one first-half TD drive lasted 17 plays and nearly 11 minutes -- to a team that was alternating between the visibly injured Haynes King and freshman Aaron Philo at quarterback. The result of this upset? We have an ACC race again! Sort of! Miami's title odds fell by 14.0 percentage points to back under 50%. But the Canes are still the team most likely to reach the ACC championship game, and they'd be at least slight projected favorites over either SMU or Clemson in Charlotte, North Carolina. Regardless, the gap closed a lot: Miami had a lead of about 30 percentage points over SMU in the title odds a week ago, and now it's an advantage of about 8.4 percentage points. Why is Clemson so far back when the Tigers have the same number of conference losses as Miami (and when SMU still has quite a bit of work to do in conference play)? Because the "record against common opponents" tiebreaker strikes again. Miami and SMU beat Louisville, Clemson did not, and now the Tigers have to hope that either Miami loses again or SMU loses twice so they can get into the ACC title game. SMU still has three more games to win, and Miami still has to win at Syracuse, but it's clear who the odds favor right now.
 Big 12 forecast
SP+ title odds: BYU (49.9%), Colorado (20.6%), Kansas State (16.5%), Iowa State (7.1%), West Virginia (2.6%), Arizona State (2.1%) Here are the current records in Big 12 play. 6-0: BYU
5-1: Colorado
4-2: Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State and West Virginia
4-3: TCU and Texas Tech
3-3: Baylor, Cincinnati and Houston
2-4: Kansas
2-5: UCF
1-5: Arizona and Utah
0-7: Oklahoma State And here are the records if every one-score finish had gone in the other direction this season: 5-1: Colorado and Kansas
4-2: Baylor, Cincinnati, Iowa State and Utah
4-3: TCU and UCF
3-3: Arizona, BYU and Kansas State
2-4: Arizona State
2-5: Oklahoma State
1-5: Houston and West Virginia
1-6: Texas Tech Obviously, close results aren't derived entirely by randomness and luck, but Saturday night's game in Salt Lake City gave us a nice reminder of just how much the Big 12 title will be determined by the slightest of edges and the smallest of breaks. Over their past three games, Kalani Sitake's BYU Cougars have beaten Oklahoma State and Utah -- teams that are a combined 1-12 in conference play -- via a 35-yard touchdown pass with 10 seconds remaining (Cowboys) and a 44-yard field goal with three seconds left (Utes). The latter followed a controversial defensive holding call that kept BYU's last-gasp drive alive. (I think the holding call was correct, by the way, though we never saw much of a close-up angle of the play.) All of this is to say that, while unbeaten BYU is on an incredible and blessed run and still has a mulligan to play with -- which makes the Cougars extremely likely to reach the Big 12 championship game -- everything we think we know about the Big 12 could still end up turning on a dime. You know, like seemingly every BYU game does at some point. It's perhaps noteworthy, by the way, that while teams such as BYU, Arizona State, West Virginia, Kansas, Baylor and Utah have had their entire fates determined by close calls and bounces this season, Colorado is in the top two of both lists above. Deion Sanders' Buffaloes split a pair of dramatic one-score finishes but have won their other four conference games by 27, 27, 11 and 14 points. The Buffaloes' defense is a little too reliant on red zone stops and turnovers for SP+ to entirely trust them, but they've handled their overall business better than anyone else in the Big 12 of late. Kansas State, the team I still think is the best in the conference, didn't do that against Houston two weeks ago and now needs the Buffaloes to slip up to get back into the race. Colorado's odds rose considerably after Saturday, in part because Iowa State's fell. The Cyclones lost 45-36 at Kansas, likely bringing their role in this race to an end (and reminding us that Kansas, a victim of so many close losses, is still awfully good).
Group of 5 forecastI apologize in advance to Boise State fans. I have inadvertently jinxed the hell out of your team. I had a sudden vision earlier this week: What if BSU wins out and, with a loss only to top-ranked Oregon by three points, rises into the top 12? And what if Army beats Notre Dame in Week 13, charging up the rankings -- and threatening to reach the top 12, as well? What if both teams got into the CFP? It was a beautiful thought. And nature tends to snuff out such beauty as quickly as possible. So, I now fully expect the Broncos to lose at San Jose State this weekend. My bad, Broncos. Jinxes aside, the battle for the Group of 5's one guaranteed playoff slot remains straightforward at the moment: (1) Boise State comfortably leads the way, (2) things get awfully messy and interesting if Army upsets Notre Dame and (3) if both BSU and Army fall, Tulane -- which could take down the Black Knights themselves in the AAC championship game -- is most likely to take advantage. But being that every race is its own precious snowflake, let's go conference by conference. AAC: Army (62.6%), Tulane (28.7%), Navy (8.0%) If Tulane takes care of Navy this coming week, as projected, it will be time to prepare for Army-Tulane. The winner of that one would be poised to seize the G5's guaranteed playoff spot. But Army has bigger sights to focus on at the moment. Can quarterback Bryson Daily get fully healthy during the Black Knights' upcoming bye week? And can Army deploy its most explosive offense possible against Notre Dame in Week 13? Conference USA: Western Kentucky (54.2%), Jacksonville State (28.6%), Liberty (11.7%), Sam Houston (5.5%) Jacksonville State moved into the No. 2 spot on the CUSA favorites list last week -- then almost immediately lost at Louisiana Tech, needing a Hail Mary and an overtime score to win. But like BYU, the Gamecocks survived and kept their solid odds going. These odds could still shift quite a bit in the coming weeks, however, because WKU, the current favorite, will play Liberty in Week 13 and Jax State in Week 14. MAC: Bowling Green (27.0%), Toledo (22.9%), Miami (Ohio) (19.3%), Western Michigan (16.9%), Ohio (6.5%), Northern Illinois (3.7%), Buffalo (3.2%) God bless you, MAC. In every other conference, the title favorite has at least a 38% title shot. In the MAC, no one is above 30% yet, and four teams still have from a 1-in-3 to 1-in-6 chance of taking the crown. Of course, it should be noted that these numbers were pulled before Bowling Green's Tuesday night win over WMU. So the Falcons have probably crept over 30% by now. It was fun while it lasted. Mountain West: Boise State (80.1%), UNLV (12.7%), Colorado State (6.7%) Boise State is by far the best team in the Mountain West -- the Broncos are 24th in SP+, and No. 54 UNLV is the only other MW team that ranks higher than 75th -- and at 5-0 has the best conference record. That makes you a pretty overwhelming favorite. There's still some blurriness regarding who BSU might host for the MW championship. UNLV is quite obviously the second-best team, but Colorado State has benefited from a painfully easy schedule (and a couple of tight wins) in compiling a 4-0 conference record to date. The Rams are only 92nd in SP+, but if they beat Wyoming and Utah State at home and take down a flagging Fresno State on the road, they'll be 7-0 and headed to Boise. Sun Belt: Louisiana (61.8%), James Madison (14.5%), Georgia Southern (14.2%), Marshall (5.8%) If things get particularly weird moving forward -- Boise State loses, Army gets crushed by Notre Dame and loses to Tulane, and Tulane falls to Navy, for starters -- Louisiana, at 8-1, could still sneak into the CFP conversation. The Ragin' Cajuns have lost only to Tulane and have a two-game lead in the Sun Belt West race. They have one foot in the title game and are therefore huge conference title favorites overall. But JMU ranks ahead of them in SP+, and if the Dukes can eke out an East title despite trailing Georgia Southern and Marshall by a game, the conference championship game would be a toss-up.
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