College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 12

The most compelling aspect of the College Football Playoff race at the moment may not be who will get into the 12-team field but who will be left out.

A logjam of two-loss SEC teams, including Tennessee, which joined the club after falling at Georgia on Saturday night, is presenting plenty of intrigue. How many of those two-loss SEC teams will make the cut? And how does a two-loss team in what is clearly the deepest conference in the country match up with a one-loss team from the top-heavy Big Ten, where signature wins are harder to come by?

Of course, there will be a home for all those teams during bowl season, but not necessarily one they had their sights set on in September.

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day (Dec. 8).

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 BYU at No. 5 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Indiana

Bonagura: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Alabama

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: The most interesting reveal in the CFP committee's next rankings Tuesday night will be what it does with Tennessee. Losing to Georgia might have effectively eliminated the Volunteers from the playoff, but so long as they are one of the five SEC teams with two losses, nothing is certain. For now, it looks like they will drop behind Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia, but with a win against Alabama, there is a case to minimize the drop. Another thing to keep an eye on: Where does Boise State land in relation to the ACC and Big 12 teams, especially after BYU lost? The Broncos were ranked ahead of SMU and Colorado last week, which points to the possibility they could even land the No. 3 seed when all the dust settles.

Schlabach: I thought BYU was playing with fire and its record was somewhat inflated because of its schedule, and the Cougars fell 17-13 to Kansas at home Saturday night. Say goodbye to the Cougars, for now at least, and say hello to surging Colorado, which I'm now projecting to win the Big 12. Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders deserves a lot of credit for building his team into a legitimate CFP contender. The Buffaloes were a hot mess on both lines of scrimmage in Sanders' first season, but with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way star Travis Hunter, they can compete with most teams now. I dropped Tennessee from the 12-team bracket after its 31-17 loss at Georgia. I'm just not sure the Volunteers are going to have enough meat on their résumé outside of their win over Alabama to get an at-large berth. I replaced them with Notre Dame, which continues to cruise against lesser opponents. Given Notre Dame's history and tradition, I'm expecting the CFP selection committee to look past its ugly loss to Northern Illinois if it finishes 11-1.

CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Colorado

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl 
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: When Georgia fell behind 10-0 to Tennessee on Saturday, the Bulldogs' season was in jeopardy. But after their 31-17 win, they're in position to not only qualify for the playoff, but receive a navigable path to the semifinals. I'd take Georgia against both Penn State and Miami (or whoever ends up as the No. 3 seed). Oregon vs. Alabama in the Rose Bowl would reset Dan Lanning vs. Kalen DeBoer, after DeBoer coached Washington to three straight wins against Lanning's Ducks over the previous two seasons.

Schlabach: Georgia coach Kirby Smart wasn't happy that his team would have been the first team left out of the 12-team bracket based on last week's rankings from the selection committee. He probably doesn't have to worry about that now, as long as the Bulldogs take care of UMass and rival Georgia Tech in their last two games at home. Barring complete chaos in the final two weeks of the regular season, Georgia won't reach the SEC championship game, which might not be a bad thing for a banged-up team. I have the Bulldogs as the No. 10 seed right now, but they'll conceivably move up if Ohio State takes down Indiana and Texas A&M beats Texas the next two weeks. In my current bracket, which is sure to change, I had No. 10 Georgia and No. 11 Notre Dame advancing to the semifinals.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 7 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 11 Notre Dame

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: The only consensus belief about how the playoff picture is shaking out is that this is an entire field of flawed teams. Just look at this weekend: Oregon almost lost. Texas failed to impress. BYU, the undefeated No. 6-ranked team, lost at home to Kansas. Ohio State started slowly, again. Georgia was down double digits. Boise State came within a few yards of falling behind 21-0 to San Jose State. It should all add up to an unpredictable playoff.

Schlabach: Despite the chaos from week to week, I keep coming back to my top three teams at the start of the season: Oregon, Ohio State and Georgia. I think the No. 5 seed might be the most-coveted spot in the bracket, potentially playing No. 12-seed Boise State at home in the first round and the Big 12 champion in the quarterfinals. Of course, those opponents could flip, if the Broncos keep winning and the Big 12 champion has two (or more) losses. An Oregon-Ohio State rematch in the Cotton Bowl would be very intriguing, and I had Notre Dame upsetting No. 3 Miami in the quarterfinals to face Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. James Madison 
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Memphis

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: California vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. South Florida

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. UConn
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. South Alabama

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Michigan State 
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. UConn