BYU losing to Kansas on Saturday could present a far bigger shake-up in the College Football Playoff race than one loss might typically indicate.
If the CFP selection committee drops BYU out of its top 12 and puts Boise State in, the Broncos could earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions instead of a Big 12 team.
And if that were to happen, No. 11 Tennessee in this week's scenario would be knocked out of the field to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion -- one-loss BYU.
And you thought the controversy ended with the four-team playoff.
There should be no surprises at the top after No. 1 Oregon escaped Wisconsin with a win. And Georgia's home victory over Tennessee changed the two-loss pecking order, but by how much?
Here's a look at the weekly prediction of what the top 25 might look like in the committee's third ranking on Tuesday. Remember, this is not a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it's a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point and how the committee has already evaluated them.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking, as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
Why they could be lower: If the committee members haven't ranked Indiana ahead of Penn State yet, they're certainly not going to do it when the Hoosiers were on a bye.
Need to know: As long as Penn State wins out, the Nittany Lions will earn a spot in the CFP, but whether they earn home-field advantage in the first round still depends on what happens around them. The debate between one-loss PSU and undefeated Indiana will be settled on Saturday when the Hoosiers face Ohio State. If they can do what Penn State couldn't and beat OSU, they'll earn their promotion and the Nittany Lions will be looking up at IU in the Big Ten and the CFP ranking. The bigger question is who else the Lions might be trailing at the end of the regular season. PSU doesn't have any more opportunities at statement wins, but some other contenders below do.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 at Minnesota, Nov. 30 vs. Maryland
5. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
Why they could be here: The selection committee has valued Indiana's dominant play more than it has penalized the Hoosiers for a schedule that ranked No. 100 in the country entering Week 12. IU ranked No. 6 in ESPN's game control metric, and the Hoosiers' strength of record was also No. 6, giving the average playoff contender a 34.2% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Hoosiers had a bye week to prepare for their biggest game of the regular season, on Saturday at Ohio State. "Indiana has been playing well," committee chair Warde Manuel said, "a close win against Michigan, but other than that, they've dominated everyone they've played." IU leads the country in points margin per game (30.1), but it has come against opponents with a winning percentage of 49.4% (No. 96).
Need to know: How teams win -- and lose -- matters inside the committee meeting room, so if the Hoosiers lose a close game at Ohio State, their most recent ranking indicates they should have some wiggle room. If Indiana wins, don't be surprised to see the Hoosiers take the Buckeyes' No. 2 spot.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 at Ohio State, Nov. 30 vs. Purdue
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)
Why they could be here: Notre Dame's schedule hasn't been as weak as it once appeared. The season-opening win at Texas A&M highlights Notre Dame's résumé, as the Aggies still control their path to the SEC title game. The win against Georgia Tech also is respected in the committee meeting room, but the victory against Louisville lost some luster after the Cardinals fell at Stanford on Saturday. The Irish have won eight straight games since the Sept. 7 loss to Northern Illinois, including Saturday's triumph against visiting Virginia (5-5). Even though Navy has slid and lost three of its past four games, the committee considers the fact the Midshipmen were undefeated and ranked when Notre Dame beat them 51-14 on Oct. 26 at MetLife Stadium.
Why they could be lower: The two-loss SEC teams have better wins. On a week that Notre Dame beat Virginia at home, Georgia earned a statement win against the committee's No. 7 team. And Alabama already beat Georgia. And Tennessee already beat Alabama. If the committee hasn't ranked those SEC teams ahead of Notre Dame yet, though, it's hard to envision that changing this week. The only justification would be Georgia adding another top-12 win to its résumé -- and both losses (to Alabama and Ole Miss) are better than Notre Dame's only loss (Northern Illinois). The reality is probably status quo.
Need to know: Neither of Notre Dame's final two games are gimmes, and both are away from South Bend, Indiana, as the Army game is to be staged at Yankee Stadium as part of the Shamrock Series. Army has clinched a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game, which means Notre Dame could possibly have a win against the AAC champs if the Black Knights can beat Tulane. Notre Dame can't afford another bad loss, and five-loss USC would fall under that category. But a close neutral-site loss to Army could create a debate, depending on what happens elsewhere. The reality is that it would probably knock the Irish out of the playoff because other two-loss contenders would have better losses. But what if Texas A&M somehow wins the SEC, and Notre Dame has a regular-season win against the SEC champs?
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Army, Nov. 30 at USC
7. Miami Hurricanes (9-1)
Why they could be here: The Hurricanes had a bye but dropped five spots in the second ranking following their Nov. 9 loss at Georgia Tech. Still, they remain the ACC's top team, and Manuel said the committee has noted that the Canes' "offense is very dominant in terms of how they've been winning. Haven't been as consistent defensively." Miami's only win against a ranked opponent was on Oct. 19 at No. 19 Louisville. The committee noted the 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech was a close game on the road against a respectable ACC opponent above .500 (6-4), but it was damaging enough to bump the Canes out of the top three projected seeds.
Why they could be lower: Much like Notre Dame, the two-loss SEC teams have better wins. But it's unlikely Alabama moves up after a win against Mercer, and because the Crimson Tide and Ole Miss beat Georgia, there's already a pecking order to the two-loss SEC teams. It would be hard for the committee members to sink the Canes during their bye week, unless Georgia's win against Tennessee changed their view of the entire order.
Need to know: As long as Miami runs the table and wins the ACC, it should earn a first-round bye as one of the four-highest-ranked conference champions. If the ACC produces a two-loss conference champion, though, it's possible the league could lose that first-round bye if Boise State finishes as a one-loss Mountain West Conference champion and is ranked higher.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Wake Forest, Nov. 30 at Syracuse
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)
Why they could be here: A victory against FCS Mercer isn't going to win the Tide any points in the committee meeting room, but it's also unlikely to change Alabama's place in the pecking order. Even though Georgia has played the toughest schedule, the committee kept it behind Ole Miss and Alabama last week because of the head-to-head results, and that should continue to keep the Tide as the top two-loss team. While Alabama's win against South Carolina continues to be a top-25 CFP win, the Tide's 42-13 drubbing of LSU doesn't look as impressive now that the Tigers have now lost three straight and could tumble out of the top 25 altogether.
Why they could be lower: Because Georgia's wins against Clemson, Texas and Tennessee are better than Alabama's wins, and because Georgia was able to beat the Vols -- and Alabama did not.
Need to know: Head-to-head results can be tricky in the room and are not always honored -- even when records are the same. Last week, for example, the committee ranked South Carolina ahead of LSU even though the Tigers beat the Gamecocks and they had identical 6-3 records at the time. The same can happen this week with Tennessee and Alabama. The Vols beat Alabama on Oct. 19 but could be placed behind the Tide in the committee's third ranking even though they both have two losses.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 at Oklahoma, Nov. 30 vs. Auburn
9. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2)
Why they could be here: The committee honored the Rebels' head-to-head win against Georgia in its second ranking, and Ole Miss should remain the group's second-highest two-loss team behind Alabama. The Rebels had a bye, while Alabama cruised against FCS opponent Mercer. The committee was impressed with the Rebels' win against Georgia, but they also earned credit in the room for beating South Carolina. "The close loss against Kentucky was something that we discussed, as well, and then losing to LSU in overtime," Manuel said last week. "But the reality is they beat a very good Georgia team, who, while struggling and inconsistent offensively, is still a great team."
Why they could be lower: Georgia is getting better. The Bulldogs' résumé and schedule are better, and the offensive inconsistency that was on display against Ole Miss was vastly improved in the win against Tennessee. The Bulldogs added a third statement win to their résumé along with decisions over Clemson and Texas.
Need to know: ESPN Analytics gives Ole Miss at least an 81% chance to win its final two games, and the Rebels can't afford a third loss. The win against Georgia was exactly what they needed to catapult them back into the playoff bracket.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 at Florida, Nov. 29 vs. Mississippi State
10. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are stuck in a head-to-head sandwich, where their win against Tennessee should have them above the Vols but losses to both Bama and Ole Miss could keep them as the committee's third-best two-loss team. There is still a huge gap between Georgia and Texas, which looms large in the committee meeting room. "Georgia may have one of the best wins of the year by going to Texas and winning the way they did," Manuel said.
Why they could be higher: Against Tennessee on Saturday, Georgia looked like a CFP contender for the first time this month, after struggling to beat Florida and its third-string quarterback then losing in convincing fashion to Ole Miss. Embattled quarterback Carson Beck threw for two touchdowns versus the Vols and ran for another, helping Georgia to add the eye test to its strong résumé.
Need to know: Georgia is now in third place in the SEC standings -- behind Texas and Texas A&M, which play each other to close the regular season. It's possible Texas and Georgia will face each other a second time in the SEC title game -- and a third time in the playoff, if the seeding lands the right way. The selection committee does not reseed or try to avoid potential rematches when ranking its final top 25 on Selection Day.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Massachusetts, Nov. 29 vs. Georgia Tech
11. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2)
Why they could be here: The committee likely will honor Georgia's win against the Vols -- even though Tennessee has a victory against Alabama. In addition to the loss to Georgia, Tennessee also fell to Arkansas, which the committee will view as worse than Georgia's loss to Ole Miss.
Why they could be higher: The only reason the Vols would be higher is if the committee felt strongly about Tennessee's win against Alabama.
Need to know: If this projection is right and the playoff were today, Tennessee would be excluded from the bracket to make room for Boise State, the committee's fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the field, if the fifth champion is outside of the committee's top 12 on Selection Day, they have to get in at the expense of somebody. Last week, it was Georgia. Now, it's Tennessee.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. UTEP, Nov. 30 at Vanderbilt
12. Boise State Broncos (9-1)
Why they could be here: The selection committee has placed a comparative emphasis on losses, and Boise State losing by a field goal at No. 1 Oregon is far better than BYU losing at home to a six-loss Kansas team. The Broncos also have a strong road win against UNLV and a home victory versus Washington State.
Why they could be lower: The committee might not penalize BYU for losing its first game so much that it falls out of the bracket entirely, and the Cougars have been ranked ahead of Boise State all season.
Need to know: If the Broncos are ranked within the committee's top 12, they won't displace any team to earn their spot in the bracket, but they would earn a first-round bye in this scenario because the projected Big 12 champion would be outside of the committee's top 12 as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. That means No. 11 Tennessee would get knocked out to make room for the Big 12 champion.
Remaining games: Nov. 23 at Wyoming, Nov. 29 against Oregon State
Projecting the rest of the top 25
13. BYU | 14. SMU | 15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado | 17. Clemson | 18. South Carolina
19. Missouri | 20. Arizona State | 21. Army
22. Tulane | 23. UNLV | 24. Iowa State | 25. Washington State
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 20 and 21
No. 12 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Quarterfinal games
At the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 BYU/No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 Boise State
No. 11 Georgia/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Ole Miss/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Texas
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 1 Oregon
