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San José State led No. 13 Boise State by 14 and had the ball at the BSU 2 just 20 minutes in. Wisconsin led top-ranked Oregon heading into the fourth quarter. Arkansas had the ball and a chance to take the lead on No. 3 Texas with 13 minutes left. Boston College had the ball and a chance to take the lead on No. 14 SMU with two minutes left. Pitt did take the lead on No. 20 Clemson with 1:36 left. I predicted jump scares in my Week 12 preview, and we got loads of them. Boise State, Oregon, Texas, SMU and Clemson all survived with varying degrees of dramatics, but others weren't so lucky. No. 6 BYU and No. 16 Kansas State were the latest to fall victim -- again, in K-State's case -- to the chaos demons in the Big 12. LSU not only lost in Gainesville to an inspired Florida team, getting all but eliminated from CFP contention in the process, but the Tigers were also so drastically outplayed that they were lucky to lose by only 11. New Mexico scored its first win over a ranked opponent since 2003, ending whatever CFP hopes Washington State had. Hell, down in Conference USA, the conference title favorite (Western Kentucky) lost, and two other leaders (Jacksonville State and Sam Houston) nearly did as well. If you bet on every underdog to cover Saturday, you'd have won 62% of your bets. It was as delightfully strange a day as I had hoped, even if we didn't see quite as much carnage as we could have. We'll have plenty of chances to talk about the teams still heavily involved in the CFP race soon enough. Let's pause for a moment, though, and recap Week 12's action by looking at the teams that have either been eliminated from CFP contention or have seen their odds diminish significantly. What went wrong for hopefuls like LSU and Kansas State? What's going wrong for Miami and BYU? (Note: All playoff odds below are from the Allstate Playoff Predictor.) Jump to a section:
Eliminated: LSU, K-State, Pitt
Long shots: ISU, TA&M, Clemson, Army
Fading: Miami, BYU
Week 12 surprises
Heisman of week | Favorite games
 What went wrong? Eliminated teamsI thought for a moment we'd be adding Georgia to this list. The Bulldogs' offense had taken a nosedive in recent weeks, and in the biggest game of Week 12, they were tied with No. 7 Tennessee well into the second half. A third loss wouldn't have completely eliminated them from contention, but it would have knocked them out of the top 12, and they would have needed help getting back in. The Dawgs survived, but others weren't nearly as lucky. Here are three teams that had a solid chance of landing in the playoff field not too long ago but will be swimming around in the pool of bowl games this winter instead.  LSU
Playoff odds four weeks ago: 39.8% What went wrong? Texas A&M broke the Tigers. Well, their loss to the Aggies on Oct. 26 did. And so did an injury to guard Garrett Dellinger in that game. The Tigers averaged 36.5 points per game during a six-game winning streak but have managed only 17.3 in three games since. The run game has been a problem all year, but quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and his receivers were able to pick up the slack. Not any longer. A deluge of negative plays has derailed everything: Over the past four weeks (and three games), the Tigers rank 92nd in sacks per dropback (7.1%), 113th in turnover rate (3.0%), 120th in success rate (35.5%) and 122nd in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards (39.0%). Nussmeier is almost exclusively throwing short passes -- average air yards per completion: 3.3 (100th) -- and that is eliminating any threat of explosiveness. Against Florida on Saturday, the Tigers' success rate was as low as it was against Ole Miss (34.8%), only with none of the big plays to bail them out. They averaged just 4.3 yards per play, easily their lowest mark of the season.  It's hard to blame all of that on a left guard injury. But the offensive line was already shakier than expected and has committed a higher-than-average number of penalties all season. Losing Dellinger -- and getting physically dominated late against A&M -- seemed to be the straw that broke the Tigers' back.  Kansas State
Playoff odds three weeks ago: 39.0% What went wrong? Turnovers. In seven wins this season, Kansas State's offense has been mostly fantastic, combining a 45.8% success rate (which would rank 30th for the whole season) with an average of 14.3 yards per successful play (which would rank third). While the Wildcats have scored at least 41 points in three wins, they've scored 42 total points in three losses. Their success rate is almost the same in losses (42.9%), but opponents that have been able to slow the big-play train have benefited from eventual mistakes from quarterback Avery Johnson. He has thrown six of his nine interceptions in the losses, and K-State has committed eight turnovers in those games. We can consider this the natural downside of starting a precocious, young, high-upside QB. His best moments have been brilliant. But he hasn't been consistent enough for the Wildcats to warrant a CFP spot. (Flubbing a couple of field goal snaps against Arizona State didn't help, either.)  Pittsburgh
Playoff odds three weeks ago: 20.0% What went wrong? The schedule got harder (and Eli Holstein regressed, then got hurt). As far as three-game losing streaks go, the Panthers' is pretty easy to explain. Pitt reached 7-0 with a weak-ish schedule and late-game magic from Holstein against Cincinnati and West Virginia. But the magic ran out. They lost to SMU (13th in SP+) and Clemson (14th) in recent weeks, and while Holstein averaged 8.4 yards per dropback in his first five games, he fell to 4.8 in his past four. He also got hurt against Virginia. Nate Yarnell filled in and threw for 350 yards against Clemson, but a number of red zone failures kept the door open for the Tigers, and they eventually nabbed a 24-20 win. Pitt was never incredibly likely to parlay the hot start into a CFP bid, but any hopes they had are extinguished now.
Long-shot odds at bestNone of the next four teams is out of the running. Clemson somehow survived a cranky and funky battle with Pitt to remain alive in the ACC race; Texas A&M cruised against New Mexico State and is still just one win (at Auburn) away from an SEC championship elimination game of sorts against Texas; Iowa State is only a game back in the Big 12 race, and upsets have shaken up that race for two straight weeks; and hey, Army is still unbeaten. But all four are barely clinging to hope compared with where they were not long ago.  Iowa State
Current playoff odds: 10.4%
Playoff odds four weeks ago: 48.1% What has gone wrong? The run defense took a couple of weeks off. After a 34-17 win over Cincinnati on Saturday, Iowa State is 8-2 overall and 5-2 in conference play. The Cyclones are still a game behind BYU and Colorado, but the past three weeks in the conference have been deliriously messy. That could remain the case. Just three weeks ago, however, the Cyclones controlled their own destiny. And they learned just how fickle destiny can be in the Big 12. ISU still ranks 18th nationally in points allowed per drive (1.5), but against Texas Tech and Kansas it allowed opponents to run efficiently -- Tech's Tahj Brooks had 122 yards and a touchdown, KU's Devin Neal had 116 and two -- and stay in third-and-manageable. It was eventually costly in losses of 23-22 and 45-36. ISU defended Cincinnati well Saturday, but the brief struggles hurt.  Texas A&M
Current playoff odds: 12.5%
Playoff odds three weeks ago: 46.1% What has gone wrong? The Aggies played South Carolina at a very bad time. The SEC has five two-loss teams, but it appears only four of them are heavily involved in the CFP conversation: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss. A&M was just 15th in last week's CFP rankings, hanging around but in need of a few breaks. The Aggies play Texas in two weeks in what could be an SEC championship elimination game. If they win out, they're in. SP+ gives them only a 19% chance of beating both Auburn and Texas, however, and they'd likely be underdogs in the SEC championship game as well. Their margin for error is gone. And the main reason for that is their 44-20 blowout loss to a South Carolina squad that started 3-3 but has been one of the best teams in the country since. Play the Gamecocks in September, and the Aggies are probably 9-1 right now.  Clemson
Current playoff odds: 20.1% Playoff odds four weeks ago: 40.3%  What has gone wrong? The offense found its ceiling. Clemson and LSU have followed different paths with different schedule strengths. Following a meek loss to Georgia in Week 1, Clemson averaged 48.5 points during a six-game winning streak that transformed the season. But the Tigers have scored just 21, 24 and 24 points since, never topping 4.9 yards per play. They couldn't keep up with Louisville in a 33-21 home loss in Week 10, and they needed excellent defense to buy time before the offense finally came through against both Virginia Tech and Pitt. The culprit has been something different each time. First, it was a complete lack of big plays (101 snaps, zero gains of 25-plus yards) against Louisville. Then it was dreadfully poor pass efficiency (16-for-34 with an interception) against Virginia Tech. Against Pitt the negative plays were endless -- the Panthers made 14 TFLs, and of Clemson's 58 net rushing yards, 50 came on Cade Klubnik's shocking, game-winning touchdown run. The Tigers get a tuneup against The Citadel before a big rivalry game against South Carolina, and they'll need either Miami (once) or SMU (twice) to slip up to get into the ACC championship game. The Louisville loss appears likely to keep them out of both the conference title game and CFP.  Army
Current playoff odds: 10.6%
Playoff odds four weeks ago: 24.5% What has gone wrong? Boise State hasn't lost. Army is still unbeaten and might even still control its destiny -- with an upset of Notre Dame and a ranked Tulane, the Black Knights could rise quite a bit from their No. 24 perch in the CFP rankings. But (A) SP+ gives them only a 9% chance of beating both Notre Dame and Tulane, and (B) they were 11 spots behind Boise State last week, and the Broncos avoided a potential landmine in handling San José State on Saturday evening. This is a mountain to climb, and we won't really know if Army QB Bryson Daily is 100 percent healthy until he takes the field against Notre Dame.
Quickly trending downwardPer SP+, Miami and BYU are still the title favorites in their respective conferences. But both have leaked oil of late, and both spent their mulligans in the past eight days. They're in decent shape, but only if they rally immediately.  Miami
Current playoff odds: 62.7%
Playoff odds two weeks ago: 92.5% What's going wrong? The defense stopped defending. For the season, Miami's defense has taken a slight step forward. After ranking 48th and 40th in defensive SP+ over Mario Cristobal's first two seasons, the Hurricanes are currently up to 35th. But that's down from 21st four weeks into the season. Since Week 5, they rank a solid 34th in success rate allowed (38.8%), but they are 127th in yards allowed per successful play (14.4). In this span, they've allowed at least 20 yards on 9.2% of snaps, 126th overall and fourth worst among power-conference defenses.  Miami's defense faced 64 snaps in its 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech in Week 11, and among them were gains of 65, 30, 27 and 21 yards, plus gains of 16, 15, 12 and 11 on third-and-long. Cam Ward and the offense faltered at times too, but because of the defense, the offense is never allowed to falter. With no mulligan left, the Canes probably need to win out to reach the CFP. They'll be favored in every game (Wake Forest; at Syracuse; and in the ACC championship game, likely against SMU), but they were favored pretty handsomely against Georgia Tech and three other teams they barely beat in ACC play too. They have to hope getting this past weekend off refreshed the legs a bit.  BYU
Current playoff odds: 39.1%
Playoff odds last week: 58.6% What's going wrong? The red zone offense has cratered. BYU's defense was the superior unit for most of the 9-0 start, but Jake Retzlaff and the offense found a nice cruising altitude, scoring at least 34 points in six straight games. That slipped to 22 in a narrow win over Utah last week, then 13 in Saturday night's four-point loss to Kansas. Against both the Utes and Jayhawks, BYU had the superior yards-per-play average, but in three red zone trips against Utah, the Cougars managed only one touchdown with two field goals. Against Kansas, it was even worse: four red zone trips, two field goals, an interception and a turnover on downs. They did score a second-quarter touchdown on a 30-yard pass from Retzlaff to Hinckley Ropati, but the closer the Cougars get to the end zone, the worse they execute. The good news is, this doesn't have to be a long-term deficiency. Michigan struggled in the red zone for decent-sized chunks of time in both 2022 and 2023 and still won the Big Ten both years (and the national title last year). But if the Cougars don't beat a smoking-hot Arizona State in Tempe this coming week, their CFP chances will plummet. They probably won't win that game without turning red zone trips into TDs.
The five most surprising resultsHere are the five results that were furthest away from their respective SP+ projections. Call them either surprises or bad projections, I guess. Utah State 55, Hawai'i 10 (projection: Hawai'i by 6.6). The biggest whiff of the season by SP+. Utah State had seemingly stabilized in recent weeks after falling to as low as 125th in SP+. But there was really no indication the Aggies might be capable of this. They gained 580 yards, picked off five passes and won the first and third quarters by a combined 38-0. Air Force 28, Oregon State 0 (projection: OSU by 8.3). Credit to Air Force for righting the ship (plane?). The Falcons have overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 13 points for three straight games and are clearly an improving team. But ... what on earth, Oregon State? Tulane 35, Navy 0 (projection: Tulane by 4.1). SP+ was slow to come around on Tulane for some reason, but the Green Wave have given the hatin' algorithm no choice but to love them at this point. They've jumped from 70th to 25th in SP+ in just five weeks, and they gave Navy absolutely no hope Saturday, allowing just 113 total yards. South Florida 59, Charlotte 24 (projection: USF by 7.6). USF remains one of the most unpredictable and/or least reliable teams in the country; the Bulls have overachieved against projections by at least 16 points three times and underachieved by at least 14 three times. Regardless, Good USF showed up here and kept its bowl hopes alive. Texas State 58, Southern Miss 3 (projection: TXST by 28.5). After back-to-back losses dropped Texas State to a disappointing 4-4, the Bobcats have responded with a good performance (38-17 over Louisiana-Monroe) and a great one. Granted, Southern Miss is all the way checked out at this point, but TXST is bowl-eligible once again.
Who won the Heisman this week?I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting? Here is this week's Heisman top 10: 1. Carson Beck, Georgia (25-for-40 passing for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 32 rushing yards and a touchdown against Tennessee). 2. T.J. Parker, Clemson (7 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Pitt). 3. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (21-for-30 for 353 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, plus 50 non-sack rushing yards against Missouri). 4. Omarion Hampton, North Carolina (35 carries for 244 yards and a touchdown, plus 16 receiving yards against Wake Forest). 5. Travis Hunter, Colorado (55 receiving yards, a rushing touchdown, 3 tackles, an interception and a pass breakup against Utah). Oh yeah, and this absurd catch: 6. Tyler Warren, Penn State (8 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, plus three carries for 63 yards and a touchdown against Purdue). 7. Drew Allar, Penn State (17-for-19 passing for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 22 rushing yards against Purdue). 8. Bryson Washington, Baylor (18 carries for 123 yards and three touchdowns, plus 59 receiving yards and a touchdown against West Virginia). 9. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (32 carries for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 5 receiving yards against San Jose State). 10. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (26-for-36 passing for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns against West Virginia). I've come to realize over time that Georgia is in a no-win position with me. When the Dawgs look good -- as Beck did Saturday night, playing with extreme command, completing passes to 10 different guys and torching the best defense he has faced all season -- it's what was supposed to happen. When they don't, it's an epic indictment. Regardless, Beck was awesome, I wish we'd have seen more of Awesome Beck this year and Georgia likely salvaged its spot in the CFP with a key win. It was really hard not to make T.J. Parker No. 1, though. In one of the oddest games you'll ever see, Clemson seemed to give up the ghost late against Pitt, only to win because of an out-of-nowhere 50-yard Cade Klubnik touchdown run. But Klubnik wouldn't have had a chance at those heroics if Parker hadn't played the game of his life. Honorable mention (I'm including more than usual this week because I couldn't decide who to cut): • Devon Dampier, New Mexico (11-for-25 passing for 174 yards and a touchdown, plus 193 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns against Washington State). • Mac Harris, USF (5 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 2 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble return touchdown against Charlotte). • Robert Henry, UTSA (20 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 57 receiving yards against North Texas). • John Mateer, Washington State (25-for-36 passing for 375 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 74 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against New Mexico). • Jordan McCloud, Texas State (23-for-28 passing for 335 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 25 non-sack rushing yards against Southern Miss). • Owen McCown, UTSA (29-for-43 passing for 379 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 108 non-sack rushing yards against North Texas). • Emmett Mosley V, Stanford (13 catches for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 7 rushing yards against Louisville). • Parker Navarro, Ohio (22-for-32 passing for 277 yards and 1 INT, plus 106 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns against Eastern Michigan). • Shane Porter, North Texas (13 carries for 193 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 8 receiving yards against UTSA). • Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (30-for-41 passing for 340 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT against Utah). • Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State (12 catches for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kansas State). Through 12 weeks, here are your points leaders: 1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: 51
2. Cam Ward, Miami: 49
3. Travis Hunter, Colorado: 38
4. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: 29
5. Jalen Milroe, Alabama: 28
6. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 24
7. Cam Skattebo, Arizona State: 20
8T. Miller Moss, USC: 15
8T. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: 15
8T. Tyler Warren, Penn State: 15 points Three weeks ago, Gabriel was the betting favorite. Two weeks ago, it was Ward. In the past two weeks, Travis Hunter has produced 159 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, picked off a deflected pass ... and become an overwhelming betting favorite for the Heisman. His ESPN BET odds are now -400, equivalent to an 80% chance of winning. The Heisman is usually a stats award to a large degree. But sometimes it becomes a vibes award, and it appears the vibes are coalescing on the do-it-all athlete in Boulder. I can't complain, really -- Hunter is obviously incredible -- but I think this does a massive disservice to two players who have looked equally spectacular this year (Jeanty and Ward) and have produced dynamite stats to boot. There's no way anyone should be an 80% favorite to win this thing right now. No one has cast their votes yet, and we're obviously just talking about betting odds. But hopefully voters objectively watch all three players down the stretch. This should be way too tight a race for the conventional wisdom to have already settled on one player.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend1. No. 21 South Carolina 34, No. 23 Missouri 30. Well, as a Mizzou guy I wouldn't call this my favorite game of the weekend. But it definitely had the wildest ending, not to mention two of the best plays of the week in the final 90 seconds. The past two Missouri games have featured 58 points in the first three quarters and 65, plus six lead changes, in the fourth. The Tigers had won nine straight one-score finishes, however, and that streak was bound to end at some point. 2. New Mexico 38, No. 18 Washington State 35. I figured this one had track meet potential, and I was correct. Wazzu's John Mateer did very little wrong but was still outdueled by Devon Dampier and a UNM offense that has been close to greatness all year. And after an 0-4 start, the Lobos are one win away from bowl eligibility in Bronco Mendenhall's first season there. 3. Kansas 17, No. 6 BYU 13. All things considered, was this the greatest -- or at least, most impactful -- pooch punt of all time? 4. Buffalo 51, Ball State 48 (OT). A Tuesday night MACtion classic. In Mike Neu's final game as Ball State head coach, his Cardinals stormed ahead with a 21-3 first-half run and needed just one more stop after taking a 45-31 lead with seven minutes left. But C.J. Ogbonna rushed for one touchdown and threw for another to reach OT, and after forcing a Cardinals field goal, the Bulls pulled it out with a 14-yard Ogbonna-to-Lamar Sterling strike. 5. Sam Houston 23, Kennesaw State 17 (OT). The Conference USA race almost completely upended itself this week, with Western Kentucky losing and both Jacksonville State and Sam Houston strongly considering it. But after giving up a game-tying touchdown to Liberty-beating Kennesaw State with 25 seconds left, and after potentially lucking out when KSU didn't go for two points and the win -- You're on an interim head coach! You go for the win 100 out of 100 times! -- the Bearkats forced a field goal try (which was missed) and scored the winner on a 10-yard run by quarterback Hunter Watson. 6. Stanford 38, No. 19 Louisville 35. I'm not saying Louisville shouldn't have attempted a fourth-down Hail Mary from the Stanford 45 with 10 seconds left in a tied game. It was pretty low risk. But it wasn't zero risk. There was evidently still a tiny chance that the Hail Mary would fall incomplete with four seconds left, that the Cardinals would get called for a personal foul on an aimless quick Stanford pass attempt, that the Cardinals would also jump offside on the ensuing 57-yard field goal attempt and that Emmet Kenney would then nail a 52-yarder at the buzzer. Good god, Louisville. 7. No. 20 Clemson 24, Pitt 20. It was intense, it had two lead changes in the last 96 seconds, and it kept Clemson's ACC title (and, therefore, CFP) hopes alive. It also featured a couple of the most incomprehensible officiating calls (or no-calls) I've ever seen. Just a weird day at the office all throughout ACC Land. 8. Liberty 35, UMass 34 (OT). I'm guessing poor Jacob Lurie didn't sleep very well Saturday night, not after missing what would have been a game-winning field goal at the buzzer in regulation, then missing a PAT in overtime, which set up Liberty's Colin Karhu to hit the winning PAT three plays later. Oof. 9. South Alabama 24, Louisiana 22. Louisiana remains the Sun Belt favorite after this one (though the Cajuns' odds fell from 62% to 46%, per SP+), but any trace CFP hopes went out the window when, after erasing 90% of South Alabama's 24-3 halftime lead, they couldn't lock down the other 10%. Quarterback Chandler Fields, leading the surge after starter Ben Wooldridge got injured, scored off left tackle with 1:16 left to make it 24-22, and it worked so well that UL ran the same play for the 2-pointer. It came up short by inches, at most. 10. East Carolina 38, Tulsa 31. Just a delightful Thursday night affair. ECU clinched bowl eligibility (and won its third straight after firing coach Mike Houston) in a game with six lead changes. Joseph Williams' third touchdown catch, a 50-yarder, gave Tulsa a 31-24 lead with 12:14 left, and ECU responded with a Rahjai Harris touchdown with 5:30 left but missed the PAT. No worries! Harris bolted 24 yards with 2:07 left. ECU still had to make a goal-line stand, though. Williams' 44-yard catch gave the Golden Hurricane a first-and-goal, but on fourth down a pop pass to Kamdyn Benjamin came up a yard short.
Sorry, I can't help it: My five favorite FCS gamesFor as wild as things were at the FBS level, FCS was even funkier this week. So it gets its own list. 1. Central Connecticut 35, Robert Morris 33. You know what's better than a game that features a kickoff return TD, a pick-six, a fumble return score, a late 14-point comeback and a last-second field goal to force OT? A game that features all of that and a game-winning 2-point conversion that was doinked off of an offensive lineman's helmet. You have to see it to believe it. 2. Mississippi Valley State 24, Florida A&M 21. Nobody ever deserves to go winless. Fielding even a bad football team is incredibly hard, and everyone deserves to be rewarded at least a bit. So in that vein, hell yeah, MVSU. The Delta Devils ended a 15-game losing streak by making a 17-0 second-quarter run, going up 24-10 at halftime and holding on for dear life. FAMU was driving to take the lead when Donovan Parham recovered a Daniel Richardson fumble, and MVSU ate the last 5:52 of clock to seal the win. 3. Saint Francis 34, Long Island 27. Trailing for most of the game, Saint Francis took its first lead with 7:33 left. LIU drove to the SFU 1 with 11 seconds left, but suffered a bad snap, recovered the ball back at the 19 and couldn't get another snap off. Oof. 4. East Texas A&M 41, Houston Christian 40. Act I: East Texas A&M (recently renamed from Texas A&M-Commerce) surges to a 21-7 lead. Act II: HCU takes control with a 26-0 run. Act III: A&M closes the gap, takes the lead on a short Sean Sallis TD with 36 seconds left, then wills HCU's Dillon Fedor to miss a 39-yard field goal at the buzzer. 5. Holy Cross 40, Bucknell 38. Bucknell was in the driver's seat in the Patriot League and led 21-3 in the second quarter. It was still 31-17 late in the third quarter, but the Crusaders went on a 16-7 run, took the lead with 59 seconds left, forced and recovered a Ralph Rucker IV fumble and kneeled out a win that kept their own Patriot hopes alive (but put Lehigh in the driver's seat). And this list didn't even include Youngstown State's overtime win over Northern Iowa, Abilene Christian's last-minute (and playoff-clinching) win over Tarleton State, or Sacramento State's last-minute loss to Cal Poly via goal-line fumble. You know how I always say, the more smaller-school ball you watch, the healthier you are? It has never been more true than it was Saturday.
The midweek playlistWednesday: Ohio at Toledo (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). The MAC race remains incredibly blurry, with Miami (Ohio), Ohio and Bowling Green all tied at 5-1 and three more teams (Buffalo, Toledo and Western Michigan) at 4-2. But Toledo still controls a good portion of its destiny and could keep hope alive by winning as projected in this one. Ohio is absolutely torrid, however, having won its past three conference games by an average of 41-9. SP+ projection: Rockets by 5.2. Thursday: NC State at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). It seems like nothing has worked out for NC State this season, but Dave Doeren's Wolfpack are somehow still 5-5 and could eke out a bowl bid by beating either Georgia Tech or UNC on the road. Tech is 4-1 against teams outside the SP+ top 30, however, and at 59th, the Pack are quite a bit outside the top 30.
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