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For all of the talk about the 12-team College Football Playoff being a borderline SEC-Big Ten invitational, consider that one-loss Boise State is now in the same club as Oregon, Texas and Miami -- in position to earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. This 13-member CFP selection committee has placed a premium on who teams lost to as well as who they beat, and Boise State's narrow loss to No. 1 Oregon looks far better than BYU's recent upset defeat to six-loss Kansas. What does that mean for the Big 12? And is there anything Georgia can do to move up if a win against Tennessee didn't do it? Here are three lessons learned from the third ranking, followed by a look at eight more teams who could play their way in and how the Group of 5 race stacks up. Jump to a topic:
What we learned
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5
 What we learned Georgia is on stable ground, but without a first-round home game The Bulldogs have the No. 1 schedule in the country, and are No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which means the average CFP contender would have just an 11.4% chance to achieve the same 8-2 record against the same opponents. Georgia has defeated three CFP top 25 teams, including No. 3 Texas, No. 11 Tennessee and No. 17 Clemson. But it's still not enough to overcome head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. That means Georgia is ranked too low to be seeded 5-8 and earn a first-round home game. With remaining games against UMass and Georgia Tech, it's unlikely that would change -- unless the teams above them lose. The ACC is in a better position than the Big 12 With No. 13 SMU ahead of No. 14 BYU, the winner of the ACC championship game appears to be in good shape to lock up a first-round bye. If SMU beats Miami, it would be a top-10 win on the most important day of the season -- with the committee watching -- to punctuate a résumé that could use a boost. SMU is ahead of BYU in spite of losing to the Cougars, which is problematic for the Big 12. No. 16 Colorado, No. 21 Arizona State and No. 22 Iowa State are still in contention for the conference championship game, along with BYU. While the Big 12 title game will feature two ranked opponents, it won't be as impressive as the ACC winner, which could leave the Big 12 champion stuck behind Boise State and out of a first-round bye. The Group of 5 race runs deeper than Boise State Boise State has been the front-runner all season, but what if the Broncos lose in the Mountain West Conference championship game? No. 19 Army moved up five spots, and is just ahead of No. 20 Tulane. Those teams will face each other in the American Athletic Conference championship game, and Army still has a chance to beat Notre Dame. If Boise State loses, and Army adds wins against Notre Dame and Tulane, the Black Knights could earn a spot in the CFP, though it would be highly unlikely they'd get a first-round bye. Tulane could do the same, though it has two losses -- against Oklahoma and Kansas State -- and its best remaining chance to impress the committee will be in the AAC title game.
Last two in No. 11 seed Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) Why they should be worried: After beating Tennessee, the Bulldogs can shift their concern from making the playoff to earning a first-round bye or a home game. If Georgia doesn't make the SEC title game and doesn't get a boost in the rankings soon, its first playoff game will be on the road. ESPN Analytics says: Georgia only has a 17% chance to earn a first-round bye, but a 60% chance to make a quarterfinal.  No. 12 seed BYU Cougars (9-1) Why they should be worried: Colorado. Forget the first-round bye. BYU needs to worry about winning its conference, period, and Colorado is looking good. If the Cougars don't win the conference, it's likely they won't make the playoff. ESPN Analytics says: BYU's chances of reaching the playoff dropped 20 percentage points after the loss to Kansas, and is now at 39%. Colorado has a 36% chance to reach the CFP.
First four out Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) Best win: Oct. 18 vs. Alabama, 24-17
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Vanderbilt The Vols were No. 11 in the latest rankings, but were bumped out of the bracket because BYU needed a spot as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. The safest place to be in the committee's ranking is 1-10. Chance to make conference championship game: 0.3%  SMU Mustangs (9-1) Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Pitt, 48-25
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Virginia SMU overcame the head-to-head loss to BYU and will clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a win at Virginia on Saturday. If SMU can beat Miami and win the ACC, it should jump high enough to earn a first-round bye after a top-10 win. Chance to make conference championship game: 95.5%  Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) Best win: Nov. 9 at Texas Tech, 41-27
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Kansas The Buffaloes are here on the strong chance they can make the Big 12 title game and win it. Colorado will clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game Saturday with a win at Kansas and losses by Arizona State (against BYU) and Iowa State (at Utah). There's just a 9% chance all of that happens, according to ESPN Analytics. Chance to make conference championship game: 70.3%  Clemson Tigers (8-2) Best win: Nov. 16 at Pitt, 24-20
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. South Carolina The two-loss Tigers are here only because of the slim chance they can still win the ACC. Clemson will clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a Miami loss to Wake Forest, but there's only a 4% chance of that happening, according to ESPN Analytics. Chance to make conference championship game: 25.2%
Next four out Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) Best win: Nov. 16 at Kansas State, 24-14
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. BYU The Sun Devils are here because they can still win the Big 12, but they have the third-best chance behind both BYU and Colorado. If the Sun Devils beat BYU on Saturday, their chance to reach the Big 12 title game will jump from 41% to 71%, and if they win their final two games and finish 7-2 in the conference, there's a 98% chance they will head to Arlington. Chance to make conference championship game: 40.1%  Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) Best win: Oct. 26 vs. LSU, 38-23
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas If Texas A&M can win its final two games, it will finish 7-1 in conference play and earn the No. 1 seed in the SEC championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas has a 78% chance to beat Texas A&M. The Longhorns have a 73% chance of finishing 7-1 in SEC play while the Aggies only have a 14% chance to finish 7-1. Chance to make conference championship game: 17.3%  Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State The Cyclones fell out of the CFP conversation after starting the month with back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas, but technically, they are still lurking with a 5-2 conference record and have a 37% chance to finish 7-2. If they do, they have a 55% chance to reach the Big 12 title game. Chance to make conference championship game: 20%  South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Texas A&M, 44-20
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Clemson The Gamecocks are a real long shot -- they'd need multiple upsets for this to be a reality -- but they've been playing well and their losses to LSU and Alabama were by a combined five points. There's also a slim chance they could have a win over the eventual SEC champs, should the Aggies beat Texas. An even slimmer chaos scenario is also having a win against the ACC champs, should Clemson find its way to the ACC title game. Chance to make conference championship game: None
Group of 5 Power Rankings 1. Boise State Broncos (9-1), Mountain West Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24 Why they're here: The Broncos have won eight straight since losing by a field goal to Oregon, and the selection committee considers losses as much as it does wins. Boise State will clinch a spot in the MWC championship game with a win at Wyoming or a UNLV loss at San Jose State. Chance to win conference: 80.8%  2. Tulane Green Wave (9-2), American Athletic Best win: Nov. 16 at Navy, 35-0 Why they're here: The Green Wave is ahead of undefeated Army because they have played better over the past few weeks, with three of the past four wins being true road games. Tulane has won each of its past three games by at least 30 points, while giving up a total of nine. This will be settled on the field in the AAC title game. Chance to win conference: Tulane has a 77.5% chance to win the AAC, ahead of Army (22.5%).  3. Army Black Knights (9-0), American Athletic Best win: Nov. 9 at North Texas, 14-3 Why they're here: The Black Knights are undefeated and ranked by the selection committee, but their opponents' winning percentage ranks No. 131 in the country (37.5%). Army's schedule ranks No. 133 in the country -- ahead of only Liberty. If Army beats Notre Dame on Saturday, this will change, but the Black Knights probably would still need Boise State to stumble. The bigger implication of that probably would be knocking the Irish out of the playoff, and opening a spot for one of the above bubble teams. Chance to win conference: 22.5%  4. UNLV Rebels (8-2), Mountain West Best win: Sept. 13 at Kansas, 23-20 Why they're here: UNLV was able to do something BYU could not -- beat Kansas. This is a respectable team with an overtime loss to Syracuse and a five-point loss to Boise State. And if UNLV faces Boise State in the MWC title game and avenges that regular-season loss, it at least opens the possibility of the playoff, depending on what happens in the American Athletic Conference. The Rebels are a long shot in need of some help but still have chances to punctuate their résumé. Chance to win conference: 15.9%  5. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (8-2), Sun Belt Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38 Why they're here: The loss to South Alabama was devastating, and Louisiana's chances of reaching the playoff are 0.3%. It's still better than Colorado State (0.1%). Chance to win conference: 43.5%
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