Ohio State has become almost boring in its reliability. Watch a Buckeyes game, and you're probably going to see them score between 31 and 49 points (that has happened in six of the past eight games) and give up between zero and 14 (eight of 10). Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are going to combine for about 140 rushing yards, Emeka Egbuka is going to catch a few first-down passes, Jeremiah Smith is going to make a one-handed catch (probably on third down), Caleb Downs is going to hit someone really hard in open space, Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are going to make a sack or two, and the Buckeyes are going to prevail. They have split two games this season against top-four teams, and otherwise have won seven games by at least 24 points.
Ohio State is old, reliable awesome. Indiana is still a mystery. We don't know the Hoosiers' ceiling yet because every time we've raised the bar they've cleared it. They overachieved against SP+ projections in each of the first nine games of the season, and when they finally underachieved in Game 10, against Michigan, it was only in one half. They led the Wolverines 17-3 at halftime, having averaged 7.1 yards per play before cratering in the second half. And even then, the defense put the game away with minimal drama.
The Hoosiers also torched Nebraska. The Huskers actually rank higher than Michigan in defensive SP+ (14th versus 18th) and gave up only 21 points to Ohio State, but even with quarterback Kurtis Rourke getting hurt, IU hit them for 56 points and 7.9 yards per play. This has been a ruthlessly efficient offense for 9.5 games.
Ohio State's defense is the best in the country. The Buckeyes start and end drives brilliantly. They force the most three-and-outs (42.0%) and give up fewer red zone touchdowns (30.4%) than any team; you probably have to hit them with big plays to score TDs, but they don't give up many of those either (5.1% of opponent plays gain 20-plus yards, 21st). And even with a season-ending injury for center Seth McLaughlin dampening the mood, the Buckeyes also have the best offense the Hoosiers have faced. By far. IU hasn't yet gone up against a top-60 offense, per SP+; Ohio State is No. 6.
In other words, this is the test we've been waiting for Indiana to take.
With the way the CFP committee so summarily dismissed BYU after the Cougars lost to Kansas, it would certainly be interesting to see what might happen to the Hoosiers with a loss in Columbus. The committee seems to value "quality losses" pretty highly -- Penn State, with its loss to Ohio State, ranks higher than Indiana, after all -- but with IU's best win coming against the No. 40 team in SP+ (Michigan), it's fair to wonder where the Hoosiers might fall. (Then again, Penn State has only one top-40 win itself.) But we'll worry about that when (or if) we have to. We won't know Indiana's ceiling until we see it, and the Hoosiers are undefeated until they're not.
Best I can tell, this is the biggest Army game (at least against someone other than Navy) since Oct. 11, 1958. On that day, Red Blaik's last Army team visited South Bend and squashed No. 3 Notre Dame 14-2, giving up only 214 yards and forcing four turnovers.
Army would finish 8-0-1, No. 3 in the country and Blaik would retire after the season. Army hasn't finished in the top 15 since, but a win at Yankee Stadium -- home of the most storied Army-Notre Dame games of them all, the battles in the mid-1940s -- might move them awfully close to the CFP top 12.
Army has reached 9-0 with a ruthlessly efficient offense. The Black Knights rank second in points per drive, combining the highest success rate* in the country with the fewest turnovers and fewest plays gaining zero or negative yards.
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third/fourth.)
Though their option offense remains a death-by-a-thousand-cuts affair, they've also found a bit more pop than usual: 8.1% of their plays have gained 20-plus yards, 21st nationally. They've created more easy points for themselves than usual, and that will be key Saturday night. They're as aggressive as ever on fourth downs, and they proved in their last game against North Texas that they're willing to grind out long drives if they need to -- they had an absurd 21-play, 14-minute touchdown drive against the Mean Green -- but Notre Dame's defense is probably too good to give up more than one of those drives. Army will need a few chunk plays.
That will require dynamic quarterback Bryson Daily to be full health. He sat out the game against Air Force because of injury and seemed limited against North Texas, and after averaging 40.4 points per game to that point, the Black Knights scored 34 total points in those two games. (Of course, since this is a wonderfully balanced team, they gave up only six points.) Daily got a well-timed bye week to rest, but we'll see.
Since suffering an enormous upset against Northern Illinois in Week 2, Notre Dame has been quietly fantastic. The Fighting Irish defense is third in points allowed per drive and second in success rate allowed, and the offense has scored 31 or more points in six straight games. The passing game lacks explosiveness -- a common issue over the past few years -- and that will almost certainly catch up to them in the CFP if they make it. But backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are combining for 6.7 yards per carry, with Love almost never losing ground and the all-or-nothing Price producing some explosive runs. The rushing success carries into the red zone, where the Irish rank 10th in red zone TD rate.
Defending Army is obviously a unique task, and the Irish defense is great in ways that might or might not apply. The pass defense is impeccable (second in yards allowed per dropback) but the run defense is merely good (35th in yards per carry, not including sacks), and Daily throws about only six or seven passes per game. Against Navy's option attack -- different from Army's, but still option-based -- the Irish gave up 222 rushing yards.
Daily's passing has been a pleasant surprise, but if Army is behind schedule too much, it's probably curtains. Notre Dame has very much looked the part of a CFP team since suffering maybe the single-most baffling loss of the season; if the Irish win their last two games, they're in. But if Daily is at full strength, this could get interesting.
Current line: Irish -14.5 (down from -17) | SP+ projection: Irish by 14.4 | FPI projection: Irish by 17.5
The Big 12 shakeup continues?
BYU's loss to Kansas last week continued the Big 12's recent shakeup, and with two of the top three favorites (BYU and Arizona) playing each other while Colorado visits chaos agent Kansas, the roller coaster could very much continue.
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Best I can tell, this is the biggest Arizona State game since Nov. 28, 2014, when the Sun Devils needed to beat rival Arizona for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game. (They lost 42-35.) ASU has surged back into the Big 12 race thanks to three straight wins. Running back Cam Skattebo's physicality and the combination of disruptive run defense and bend-don't-break pass defense has brought both an identity and eight wins.
BYU has explosiveness potential through the air, but the Cougars also seem vulnerable to a burly run attack (they're 72nd in yards allowed per non-sack carry). They could clinch a Big 12 championship berth with a win and an Iowa State loss, but that would require a return of their October form. ASU has looked like the stronger team of late.
Current line: ASU -3 | SP+ projection: BYU by 2.6 | FPI projection: ASU by 2.0
No. 16 Colorado at Kansas (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The rise continues in Boulder. After falling to 79th in SP+ in Week 2, Colorado (8-2) is up to 27th. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders and do-it-all Travis Hunter remain the standouts, but the Buffaloes have surged because of everything else. The receiving corps has an excellent quartet in Hunter, LaJohntay Wester, Will Sheppard and, if healthy, Jimmy Horn Jr., and the defense has an outstanding pass rush and a takeaway streak.
The Buffs have been the conference's steadiest team of late, but they have played only one SP+ top 40 team all season (Kansas State) and lost. Kansas, up to 42nd, is smoking hot, having beaten Iowa State and BYU in the past two weeks. I don't know if the Jayhawks have the defense to slow CU, but quarterback Jalon Daniels & Co. can keep up in a track meet.
Current line: Buffs -3 | SP+ projection: Buffs by 1.6 | FPI projection: CU by 1.6
No. 22 Iowa State at Utah (7:30 p.m., Fox)
I like that this one's in the evening, as we won't actually know how big it is until we see if Colorado or BYU lose. In suffering losses to Texas Tech and Kansas, Iowa State fell from favorite to dark horse in the conference title race, but the Cyclones have a fighting chance if they win out. Despite the whole "can't keep a QB healthy" thing, Utah remains ridiculously annoying to play against -- the Utes are first nationally in percentage of plays giving up zero or fewer yards -- but it wouldn't take too many points for ISU to put this one out of reach.
Current line: ISU -7.5 (up from -6) | SP+ projection: ISU by 4.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 4.7
Do all the 8-2 SEC teams make it to 9-2?
Maybe the most intriguing CFP rankings storyline at the moment is what happens with the immense batch of 8-2 SEC teams (Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M). It's possible only three get into the playoff, and any upset loss at the moment would be catastrophic. Tennessee (vs. UTEP) and Georgia (vs. UMass) should be safe from scares, but the other three play on the road. Odds favor at least one falling.
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Auburn ranks 11th in defensive SP+ and has given up more than 21 offensive points only twice, but the Tigers' offense is constantly fighting with itself -- 14th in yards per play but 61st in points per drive because of miscues -- and the Tigers rank 84th in special teams SP+. They're also strangely awful at home: Against FBS opponents they've underachieved against SP+ projections by 11.7 points per game.
The last time Texas A&M played on the road, a 44-20 loss to South Carolina knocked the Aggies to the outside of the playoff periphery. They could still charge into the SEC championship game by surviving Auburn and beating Texas at home next week, but there is no margin for error.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 3.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 2.9
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida (noon, ABC/ESPN+)
With freshman DJ Lagway playing well and freshman Jadan Baugh ripping off a clinching 55-yard TD run, Florida eliminated LSU from CFP and SEC contention last week. The Gators also nearly beat Tennessee and pummeled Kentucky with a healthy Lagway. We're watching the growth of a potentially awesome 2025 Gators team, but do they have enough in the tank to scare another heavyweight?
Ole Miss probably just needs to win out to reach the CFP, and with a defensive front that ranks eighth in stuff rate and first in sack rate, Lane Kiffin's Rebels might not give Lagway time to breathe. But this is another fascinating test Ole Miss must pass.
Current line: Rebels -10.5 (up from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.1 | FPI projection: Rebels by 11.4
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
Oklahoma hasn't stopped scrapping. Since losing to Texas and South Carolina by a combined 69-12 and firing offensive coordinator Seth Littrell, Brent Venables' Sooners have frustrated Ole Miss, pummeled Maine and nearly beat Missouri. If Alabama doesn't bring at least its B-plus game, this one could be problematic.
It has been nothing but A-plus performances for the Crimson Tide, however, since a loss to Tennessee. They beat Missouri and LSU by a combined 76-13 and allowed Mercer no quarter. They're second in SP+, and while they still have too many negative plays, it's almost literally their only weakness, and it has improved a bit in recent weeks. OU hasn't provided any SEC Sooner Magic yet; might that have to wait until next year?
Current line: Bama -13.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 16.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 13.2
Week 13 chaos superfecta
Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence -- I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Guess what? We did it again. Thanks to New Mexico's win over Washington State, we're now 8-for-12 on the season. You and I, dear reader, are responsible for this.
This week we're going to make an absolute mess of the already messy CFP rankings. SP+ says there's only a 45% chance that Ole Miss (84% over Florida), Alabama (84% over Oklahoma), Notre Dame (82% over Army) and Ohio State (78% over Indiana) all win. We're taking down someone big.
Week 13 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 UNLV at San Jose State (10 p.m., FS1). SJSU gave Boise State hell for a while before succumbing; now the Spartans have to corral an offense that is just about BSU's equal. UNLV hasn't completely given up on a CFP spot just yet, but the Rebels will need to win out and catch a few breaks.
Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.0 | FPI projection: UNLV by 9.0
Early Saturday
Western Kentucky at Liberty (1 p.m., ESPN+). The Conference USA race has been the wackiest in FBS, and Liberty could move right back into prime position with a win over a WKU team that had one foot in the title game before last week's surprising loss to Louisiana Tech. Can WKU settle itself and keep Liberty QB Kaidon Salter and RB Quinton Cooley in check?
Current line: Liberty -1 (flipped from WKU -1.5) | SP+ projection: Liberty by 2.4 | FPI projection: WKU by 1.6
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (noon, CBSSN). With a win, JSU would be in the CUSA title game, and Sam Houston would be awfully close if it pulls off the upset. Sam Houston has maybe the best defense in the conference, but the offense has withered in recent weeks. JSU is the exact opposite. The Gamecocks have stopped defending but can outscore any team in a track meet.
Current line: JSU -6 | SP+ projection: JSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: JSU by 6.6
No. 13 SMU at Virginia (noon, ESPN2). Virginia is 0-4 against SP+ top 30 opponents, but the Cavaliers avoid penalties and pull a decent bend-don't-break routine on defense. SMU has a lot to play for -- the Mustangs are 9-1 and can clinch a spot in the ACC championship with a win in the next two games -- but if the Mustangs are unfocused or impatient, it wouldn't take too many mistakes to make this interesting.
Current line: SMU -10 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.4
Wake Forest at No. 8 Miami (noon, ESPN). Miami's defense is extremely problematic, and Wake Forest can still run efficiently and pull that annoying "slow mesh" RPO they love. But the Demon Deacons' dismal defense probably will prevent this from turning into a scare. If Miami is going to get upset again down the stretch, it's more likely to be next week at Syracuse.
Current line: Miami -24 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.9 | FPI projection: Miami by 27.3
Illinois at Rutgers (noon, Peacock). After a dismal October, Rutgers has rebounded, overachieving against SP+ projections by a couple of touchdowns in two straight games. The Scarlet Knights have a fighting chance at an 8-4 finish, but Illinois is dreaming of winning out to 9-3. Illinois' Luke Altmyer is slowly rediscovering his rhythm, but so is Rutgers' pass defense.
Current line: Illinois -1 (flipped from RU -1.5) | SP+ projection: RU by 1.0 | FPI projection: RU by 1.2
Saturday afternoon
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., CBS). Minnesota has been mostly good at home this season and boasts the typical frustrating, bend-don't-break Gophers D. Like Wisconsin against Oregon last week, they could throw a scare into PSU if the Nittany Lions aren't particularly sharp. Penn State is two wins away from a long-elusive spot in the CFP; now would not be a great time to lay an egg.
Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 15.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 9.8
Wisconsin at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., BTN). The Anxiety Bowl of the week. Matt Rhule's Nebraska was 5-1 at one point, and Luke Fickell's Wisconsin was 5-2. Now they're both 5-5, they've both ditched their offensive playcallers, and they're simply hoping to reach bowl eligibility. The anxiety triples next week for whichever team loses this one.
Current line: Nebraska -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 1.3 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 1.1
Pitt at Louisville (4 p.m., ESPN2). Watch Louisville for about 10 minutes, and you can tell this is a solid, talented team. But the Cardinals have also done a pretty good job of self-destructing, going 2-4 in one-score finishes to knock them to 6-4 overall. Pitt, meanwhile, has lost three in a row, the past two by a total of nine points. Aspirations have sunk for both teams -- who shows up with their A-game?
Current line: Louisville -8 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.8 | FPI projection: Louisville by 9.9
Kentucky at No. 3 Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+). Texas' offense has underachieved against SP+ projections by double digits in three of the past four games. Kentucky's defense is decent enough to frustrate the Longhorns for a while, but the Wildcats have averaged a ghastly 14.1 points against power-conference opponents this season. If they had any pop, this would be a semi-intriguing matchup.
Current line: Texas -20.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 23.2 | FPI projection: Texas by 25.5
Stanford at California (3:30 p.m., ACCN). The Big Game got a little more interesting last week, when Cal disappointed against Syracuse and Stanford upset Louisville. The Golden Bears (5-5) still have the obvious edge on paper, but the longer Stanford keeps this one close, the better: Cal is 1-5 in one-score finishes and could be anxious with bowl eligibility on the line.
Current line: Cal -14.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 21.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 15.3
Saturday evening
No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN). Three of the past four BSU-Wyoming games in Laramie's War Memorial Stadium have gone down to the wire, but this game will test that run. BSU has its best team since 2011 and is trying to lock down not only a CFP bid (and a Heisman finalist position for star running back Ashton Jeanty), but also a CFP bye, while Wyoming has its worst team since 2015 and is staring a 2-10 finish in the face.
Current line: BSU -23 | SP+ projection: BSU by 27.2 | FPI projection: BSU by 25.3
Washington State at Oregon State (7 p.m., The CW). The Pac-12 championship! These teams were both 4-1 at one point, but their seasons have skewed in far different directions since. Wazzu moved to 8-1 and held the darkest of dark-horse CFP hopes until the defense fell apart (and maybe lost linebacker Taariq Al-Uqdah to injury) late in last week's upset loss to New Mexico. OSU, meanwhile, enters this one having lost five in a row. The defense has been a mess for most of the season, and the offense has cratered from QB injuries.
Current line: WSU -12.5 (down from -13.5) | SP+ projection: WSU by 9.7 | FPI projection: WSU by 9.5
Vanderbilt at LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Vanderbilt desperately needed a week off after losing two of three. If Diego Pavia and the Commodores have their legs back under them, they could easily throw a scare into either LSU, Tennessee next week, or both. Where are LSU's motivation levels? The Tigers have lost three in a row and have fallen from "playoff hopeful" to 6-4.
Current line: LSU -8 (down from LSU -9) | SP+ projection: LSU by 13.2 | FPI projection: LSU by 7.9
Cincinnati at Kansas State (8 p.m., ESPN2). Turnovers and seemingly preventable mistakes have ruined K-State's season. The Wildcats have underachieved against SP+ projections by more than 21 points for two straight games, and their home finale is against a Cincy team that has itself underachieved for three straight games. Like Vandy-LSU and Wazzu-OSU, this one's a motivation game. Who has it?
Current line: K-State -9 | SP+ projection: K-State by 12.4 | FPI projection: K-State by 8.5
Virginia Tech at Duke (8 p.m., ACCN). Injuries have prevented us from seeing the intended version of Virginia Tech for a while now -- especially in the offensive backfield (where quarterback Kyron Drones still appears questionable) -- and after winning three straight to get to 5-3, the Hokies have dropped two in a row. Duke bounced back from its own two-game losing skid to beat NC State two weeks ago and still has a decent shot at finishing 9-3.
Current line: Virginia Tech -3 | SP+ projection: Virginia Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Virginia Tech by 3.1
Late Saturday
USC at UCLA (10:30 p.m., NBC). This one has pretty uniforms and pretty desperate teams. UCLA has won three of four to rally to 4-6 (and should get receiver Rico Flores Jr. back after sitting out a couple of months) but needs to win out to bowl. USC's win over Nebraska last week -- new starting QB Jayden Maiava overcame an ugly early pick-six to throw for 259 yards and three scores with a rushing TD -- brought the Trojans back to 5-5 after a stretch of five losses in seven games.
Current line: USC -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 13.7 | FPI projection: USC by 9.5
Colorado State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). With two more wins, CSU could sneak into the Mountain West championship game without having played either the conference's best (Boise State) or second-best (UNLV) team. Fresno State's offense has lost its bite, while CSU's defense has found its own, giving up only 12.5 points per game over the past four.
Current line: Fresno -3 | SP+ projection: Fresno by 3.8 | FPI projection: Fresno by 7.9
Smaller-school showcase I: FCS season ends with a bang
Here are three dynamite FCS games you should track, all on ESPN+, as the regular season comes to a close.
Lafayette at Lehigh (1 p.m., ESPN+). The Rivalry has high stakes this year. Lehigh controls its destiny in the Patriot League. With a win, the Mountain Hawks are in the playoffs for the first time since 2017. With a Mountain Hawks loss, either Holy Cross (with a win over Georgetown) or Bucknell (with a Holy Cross loss and a win over Colgate) is in. If all three lose? It's back to Lehigh.
SP+ projection: Lehigh by 2.9
No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 4 South Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). Beating South Dakota State for the first time in five years seemed to free NDSU. The Bison have won their last three games by an average of 53-15. In that span, quarterback Cam Miller is 39-for-49 passing for 499 yards and eight TDs, while CharMar Brown has rushed 45 times for 334 yards and 5 scores. They're humming. But South Dakota has lost only to Wisconsin and SDSU and ranks second in defensive SP+.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 1.0
No. 10 Montana at No. 2 Montana State (2 p.m., ESPN+). There are 14 at-large bids in the 24-team FCS playoffs, and at 8-3 against a ruthless schedule, Montana probably has one of them. I wouldn't recommend the Grizzlies get bopped in the Brawl of the Wild, though. That might be an issue because though Montana is good, MSU is great. The Bobcats are first in FCS SP+ and 11-0 overall; only one of 10 FCS opponents has stayed within 13 points.
SP+ projection: MSU by 16.0
Smaller-school showcase II: D2, D3 and NAIA playoffs begin
Starting to run out of gas near the end of the season? Feeling a little worn down? Well, it's once again time for the energy shot known as the small-school playoffs.
The small-school playoffs are absolutely enormous: Division II has 28 teams, Division III has 40, and even the relatively small NAIA level has 20. Aside from one quarter of the D2 draw, this week's preliminary-round action doesn't involve many highly ranked teams. But we should still have some barn-burners.
NAIA: Ottawa (Ariz.) at Friends University (1 p.m., local streaming). OUAZ is fifth in my NAIA SP+ rankings and, led by quarterback Luke Giron, has averaged 54.3 points this season. The Friends Falcons, meanwhile, just run and run: They average 413.8 rushing yards. I'm impossibly optimistic about the track meet potential here.
SP+ projection: OUAZ by 2.1
D3: Mary Hardin-Baylor at Trinity University (1 p.m., NCAA.com). Because of the geographic focus of the smaller-school brackets, Trinity usually ends up playing either UMHB (2021), Hardin-Simmons (2023) or both (2022) in the playoffs. Neither Trinity nor UMHB are quite as good as usual this year, but both teams pick off a lot of passes and make lots of TFLs.
SP+ projection: UMHB by 0.6
D2: No. 19 Central Washington at No. 10 Western Colorado (3 p.m., ESPN+). Against D2 opponents, CWU came within two points of an unbeaten record. The Wildcats allow just 11.3 points and Tanner Volk is one of the best ball hawks in college football. Western, meanwhile, has lost only to No. 7 CSU-Pueblo and ranks fourth in offensive SP+.
SP+ projection: Western Colorado by 2.6
D2: No. 14 UIndy at No. 5 Grand Valley State (1 p.m., ESPN+). Geography creates some maddening pairings. In D2, the No. 1 (Harding), No. 3 (Ferris State), No. 5 (Ouachita Baptist), No. 7 (UIndy) and No. 8 (GVSU) teams in SP+ were all put in the same quarter. UIndy drew the short straw, getting pitted against another D2 power on the road. The Greyhounds have a 2,500-yard passer (Gavin Sukup) and 1,000-yard rusher (Jon Lewis), but edge rusher Niles King keys a dynamite GVSU defense.
SP+ projection: GVSU by 1.1
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (noon, Fox)
No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (7 p.m., NBC)