Big picture

After a lengthy build-up to a World Cup dominated by matters that had little to do with cricket, with Pakistan at the centre of it all - it is Pakistan who kick off the tournament. They face a Netherlands side that has become a staple at World Cups, especially in this format. Both sides harbour realistic ambitions of qualification to the next round. Pakistan are in great form, while Netherlands, who haven't played a competitive T20I since June, look to show they retain the ability to rise to the big occasion.

It has been 17 years since Pakistan last won one of these competitions, their path made more complicated by an impending boycott of their game against India, which effectively sets them two points back and at a net-run-rate disadvantage before the tournament even begins. It has reduced their margin of error to virtually nothing, with the format giving them no soft launchpad or any time to bed in.

It is handy for them, then, that no side has played more T20I cricket than Pakistan in the last nine months. They have spent that time playing 34 matches against ten different nations, winning 24 of them. They capped off their preparation with a 3-0 demolition of Australia at home last week, and will, in theory, have more than enough for a Dutch side that lacks both their preparation and their versatility.

Netherlands' avenues to victory are much narrower and less diverse than Pakistan's, but they will believe they do exist. At the last T20 World Cup, Pakistan's top order appeared to freeze in their opening game against a similarly unfancied opponent in USA, only hitting their first boundary in the tenth over. It led to a scrappy, nervy game where USA struck at Pakistan's fear of losing, eking out a sensational Super Over win.

A low-scoring contest should suit the Dutch better, given Pakistan's superior power hitting and surfeit of in-form spinners, making it challenging to go toe-to-toe with them in a run-scoring face-off. That was evidenced in Netherlands' struggles to deal with Zimbabwe's spinners in a chase of 179 in a warm-up game, even if the Sinhalese Sports Club, where they take Pakistan on, is slightly less receptive to turn than the Premadasa where Zimbabwe beat them by 29 runs.

Anything other than a Pakistan win would naturally be a colossal shock, but it's not like the Dutch have never opened a T20 World Cup with an upset in the past.

Form guide

Pakistan WWWLW (last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
Netherlands LLWWL

In the spotlight: Salman Agha and Michael Levitt

Long criticised for lacking the attacking ability apposite for this format, Pakistan captain Salman Agha has undergone an almost overnight transformation. At the turn of the year, his strike rate of 111.57 was the third lowest of all Pakistanis to have scored 500 T20I runs, but he seems to have turned it all around within three innings. It began with a 12-ball 45 against Sri Lanka in a truncated game, which he followed up with 120 runs in 70 balls in Pakistan's 3-0 clean sweep of Australia. Making the No. 3 position his own, his belligerence from ball one gives Pakistan much-needed attacking heft post-powerplay, and his is a metamorphosis Pakistan need to continue at the World Cup.

Michael Levitt didn't have the impact he would have hoped at his first T20 World Cup in 2024, but by now, he appears to be approaching his best T20 years. At 22, he is already Netherlands' fifth-highest run-scorer in T20Is, with the highest strike rate (142.20) in Dutch T20I history (minimum 500 runs). Two half-centuries in a tri-series in 2024 featuring Canada and USA offered him his launchpad before he caught fire at the tri-series in Scotland last year. His 232 runs in four innings were 90 clear of the second-highest run-scorer that tournament. He hasn't played much senior cricket since, but the opener has shown he has the ability as well as the explosiveness so suited to a tournament of this nature.

Team news

Pakistan left Sahibzada Farhan out in their most recent match, but he is likely to return. They expect spin to play a vital part at this venue, and are expected to field just two fast bowlers. Babar Azam's place in the side is far from a settled question, but having stuck by him of late, dropping him now appears a remote possibility at best.

Pakistan (probable): 1 Sahibzada Farhan, 2 Saim Ayub, 3 Salman Agha (capt), 4 Babar Azam, 5 Fakhar Zaman/Shadab Khan, 6 Usman Khan (wk), 7 Mohammad Nawaz, 8 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 9 Salman Mirza, 10 Usman Tariq, 11 Abrar Ahmed

Netherlands (probable): 1 Michael Levitt, 2 Max O'Dowd, 3 Colin Ackermann, 4 Scott Edwards (capt, wk), 5 Bas de Leede, 6 Zach Lion-Cachet, 7 Logan van Beek, 8 Roelof van der Merwe, 9 Kyle Klein, 10 Aryan Dutt, 11 Paul van Meekeren

Pitch and conditions

The Sinhalese Sports Club in Colombo has only ever hosted two T20Is, and that was over 16 years ago. As such, how the pitch might play is little more than a guessing game, though personnel at the ground expect it to be good for batting, and to carry something for seamers early on. Spin will invariably play a role, though apparently not nearly as heavily as it does at the Premadasa.

Whether the weather plays ball is also very much an open question, with heavy rain forecast the eve of the game, and light showers the afternoon of. With the game in the morning, the famous Sri Lankan groundstaff may have their work cut out if we are to sneak in a full contest.

Stats and trivia

• Pakistan were a beneficiary of Netherlands' most famous T20I win, when they beat South Africa in Adelaide at the 2022 World Cup, knocking them out of the tournament and securing qualification to the next edition. It was a result Pakistan took advantage of to make a run all the way to the final.

• Mohammad Nawaz is four scalps shy of overtaking Shahid Afridi to move up to fourth on the list of all-time T20I wicket-takers for Pakistan, and six short of 100 T20I wickets.

• Since Netherlands last took part in a T20I, Pakistan have played 24.

Quotes

"Pakistan is in great form. I think the 3-0 series win over Australia shows that. I'm not going to come out here the day before a game and tell you what we're going to exploit."
Max O'Dowd isn't going to divulge Netherlands' plan