After a whopping 126 games over six weeks, the Vitality Blast's group stage will finally draw to a close on Friday night. The qualification picture is crystal clear in the North Group, with the only complication regarding which team will join Lancashire in the top two and earn themselves a home quarter-final. In the South, it is complete carnage, with two teams through, two teams out, and five scrabbling around for the final two spots.
The team finishing first in the North Group will host the team that comes fourth in the South, then second hosts third, and so on. The quarter-finals will be held on consecutive nights from next Wednesday, with the order set to be confirmed by Saturday. The winners of those will then progress to Finals Day, at Edgbaston on September 15, for which the draw will take place after the quarters have been held.
South Group
Sussex are definitely through. Regardless of their result against Gloucestershire, they will top the group, and play at home in their quarter-final.
Gloucestershire are through, and likely to have a home quarter-final. If they beat or tie with Sussex, they will play at Bristol in the next round. If they lose, and if Kent beat Essex convincingly enough to overturn a substantial gap between the sides' net run rate (NRR), then Gloucestershire will play away from home with Kent hosting a quarter at Canterbury.
Kent will qualify if they beat Essex at Chelmsford, and could get a home tie if they win convincingly and Sussex thrash Gloucestershire. If they lose, they will be eliminated, despite having started the tournament with six wins from seven games.
Somerset's NRR is second only to Sussex's in the South Group, meaning a win by any margin against Middlesex should be enough for them to progress.
Hampshire must beat whipping boys Glamorgan to stand a chance, but their qualification will depend on other results. Their best-case scenario would be to win convincingly, and for Essex to beat Kent. Alternatively, if Hampshire win, Kent win and Middlesex win (but not by much) then Hampshire can still get through on NRR. If Kent and Somerset both win, Hampshire are effectively out regardless of their result in Cardiff.
For Middlesex to stand a chance of qualifying, they must beat Somerset at Taunton, but that may not be enough depending on other results. They will need either Kent or Hampshire to lose, or to win by a big margin while Hampshire only win by a small one, and will definitely be knocked out if they lose.
Essex need a lot to go their way, even after beating Surrey at The Oval on Thursday, on account of their poor NRR. Their best chance is to beat Kent at Chelmsford, and then hope that winless Glamorgan can turn over Hampshire. If Hampshire win, and the Somerset-Middlesex game ends in anything other than a tie, Essex will need to win by a ludicrous margin to qualify.
Surrey and Glamorgan are both out of the qualification race.
North Group
The four quarter-finalists have already been confirmed.
Lancashire will finish in the top two, but due to a date clash with the fourth Ashes Test, will play their 'home' game at Chester-le-Street. A win at home to Leicestershire would secure top spot and (supposedly) the easiest draw, though the South Group is so tight that it is hard to tell which team would be best to face.
Nottinghamshire host Durham, and will play their quarter-final at Trent Bridge if they win. If they lose, while Worcestershire win at Northamptonshire, then Notts will play away from home with New Road hosting Worcestershire's quarter.
Derbyshire have already played all 14 games. The only way they can play at home in the knockouts is if Leicestershire completely obliterate Nottinghamshire, overturning a substantial difference in the teams' NRR.
Worcestershire, the defending champions, will host a quarter-final if they win and Notts lose.
Birmingham's game against Yorkshire is a complete dead rubber.