NFL best bets for Week 12: Picks, props and more for the weekend

The return of Mike Evans, should it come this week, to the starting lineup is exciting news for the 4-6 Buccaneers, who still have an oddly good shot at the NFC South title, as we detailed above. How exactly it shakes up the target share in the Buccaneers' passing game is a tricky matter, but I feel confident that designed targets to White -- who had six, six, three and seven targets in the four games Evans missed -- won't be going away anytime soon. Rather, it was tight end Cade Otton who saw his volume leap tremendously in Evans' absence, whereas White's role in the passing game only increased marginally. I like this look if Evans is in the lineup, but I'm happy to take it now, when we might get a worse number if Evans is unable to go or is on a pitch count.

I think the Buccaneers will keep White as an active, designed target given the success he's had in that role (four receiving touchdowns in the last four weeks). It also allows them to use Bucky Irving, who they want to be involved, more heavily as a ball carrier. Relying on a pass-catching back should also help them neutralize a strong pass rush, like the one that Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence II lead in New York.

The Giants allow 1.42 yards per route run and 23.7% target per route run rate to running backs this year, both of those numbers top five among all defenses in football. So long as this doesn't become a first-half blowout that puts the Buccaneers into run-first mode, the volume should be there for White.

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston UNDER 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

We know that just about anyone can throw the football on the Baltimore Ravens, so why a receiving total under? Well, sportsbooks have caught up on the success that opposing passing games have against Baltimore, and some of these lines are accordingly inflated. Johnston has been over this line only three times all season, one of which was last week.

Johnston is unlikely to continue having eight-target outings with a quarterback in Justin Herbert who likes to spread the football around. Given the success of Will Dissly and Ladd McConkey in recent stretches, it's fair to say that Johnston is the third target in the pecking order. And while it's true that most of his looks come downfield and produce a lot of yardage, Johnston's low catch rate makes him very difficult to trust.

In order to clear this number, Johnston needs to catch at least one big throw downfield and then get some more volume on top of that. The Ravens' cornerback play can't get that much worse, but it can get better as natural statistical regression helps them out at the catch point and rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins continues to get more reps. I don't yet trust Johnston enough to deliver on his limited opportunities to consistently hit a number in the 40s.

Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)

Six-point teaser: Titans +13.5 at Texans, Panthers +16.5 vs. Chiefs (+106)

This looks scary, but it isn't. Neither the Texans nor the Chiefs have been blowing teams out this season. The Texans have two wins this year by double-digits -- against the New England Patriots in Drake Maye's first start and that end-of-game bonanza against Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys last week -- and Kansas City has its two against the New Orleans Saints (by 13) and San Francisco 49ers (by 10). The Chiefs haven't covered a spread this big all season.

Yes, they're playing Carolina, but the Panthers have some juice. Bryce Young played the best football of his career against the Saints and Giants, making accurate throws downfield and cutting some of the big negative plays from his game. The emergence of WR Jalen Coker, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders and RB Chuba Hubbard has made this offense more viable as a whole. The offensive line has seen improvement. This is far from a finished offense, but it has leapt from embarrassing to semi-functional.

Because the Chiefs don't score fast or big anymore, I don't see them building a 28-point lead from which the Panthers need to claw their way back. And even if the deficit is a big one, the Panthers will happily put up garbage-time production as they continue evaluating their young players.

And, as I detailed above, I think the Titans' plucky defense is more than strong enough to limit the Texans, who still are worse than the sum of their parts on offense. While Will Levis has produced more meme-worthy plays than Mason Rudolph did, the offense has largely been better with him at the helm, so long as he avoids crippling turnovers. The Titans have stayed within 13.5 points on the Chargers and Minnesota Vikings in back-to-back weeks, and I'm not convinced the Texans are a better team than either of those two.

SGP: Cardinals -3.5 at Seahawks, James Conner 70+ rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III 15+ receiving yards, DK Metcalf 60+ receiving yards (+65)

I don't like this matchup for the Seahawks, who struggle against teams who pull offensive linemen and run play-action -- exactly what the Cardinals do on the ground and through the air. I think Arizona will control this game pole to pole, and expect Conner to be the engine of their offense this week. The Cardinals will give up tons of passing production though, as they are a bend-but-don't break defense, so I like investing in a Seahawks' passing attack that will be in a passing game script for much of this contest. I'll probably take some  Walker receiving alts, as well.