Live NFL playoff picture: Updated chances to clinch, projected bracket
We tracked the 2023 NFL season's playoff picture. Who is in? Who is out? Here's the final field.
Live NFL Playoff
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The ESPN Analytics team’s live NFL playoff chances -- which combine current in-game win probabilities with our Football Power Index (FPI) season projections -- gave each team’s postseason likelihood throughout the Week 18 slate. Now that the 14-team playoff field and final seedings are set, you can see how things stack up in both conferences.
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Want to catch up on all the action from Week 18, including how the AFC South took a turn? We live-tracked the closest, most interesting races so you can see all the swings and surprises from the regular season's final week.
How the Bills and Steelers clinched AFC playoff spots
Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City and Cleveland clinched before Week 18, and Houston joined them on Saturday by beating Indianapolis. Pittsburgh also beat Baltimore on Saturday and snuck into the final seven when Jacksonville lost to Tennessee on Sunday afternoon. The regular season concluded on Sunday night with the Bills defeating the Dolphins to win the AFC East crown and land the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
How the Packers and Bucs clinched NFC playoff spots
The 49ers are the top seed in the conference, and the Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Rams and Packers all punched their tickets to the playoffs on the NFC side of the bracket. The Buccaneers took the NFC South with their win over the Panthers, while the Packers clinched a wild-card spot with a win against Chicago. The Seahawks, Saints, Vikings and Falcons were all eliminated in Week 18.
How the Texans clinched the AFC South
The Texans have won the AFC South. At one point this season, the Jaguars were 8-3 and looked like a lock to take the division. But a slump down the stretch for Jacksonville and some impressive play from DeMeco Ryans' Houston team flipped the script. In Week 18, Houston first beat the Colts on Saturday night. Then it watched as Jacksonville lost to the Titans on Sunday. The Texans will now be the fourth seed in the AFC and play the Browns on wild-card weekend.
How the Buccaneers clinched the NFC South
The Buccaneers won the NFC South at 9-8 after beating the Panthers -- the NFL’s worst team -- on Sunday. It is their third straight division title, and they will be the conference’s fourth seed and play the Eagles in their wild-card game.
How the Cowboys clinched the NFC East
We have not seen a repeat NFC East champion since 2004, and the streak continues in 2023. The Cowboys beat the Commanders on Sunday to take the title and land the No. 2 seed in the conference. The Eagles, meanwhile, struggled down the stretch, surrendered a lead in the division race and couldn't get going against the Giants in Week 18. They will now be the No. 5 seed and play Tampa Bay.
The chart below shows what each NFL team’s chances to make the playoffs were at the end of each week throughout the season. You can see the defining moments for each franchise as it climbed and fell in postseason likelihood. What an adventure for the Bills, Packers, Steelers and Seahawks!
Team playoff probabilities, Through WEEK 17
Methodology
Playoff chances are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down and distance, team/opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by FPI season projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings.
Edited by Ben Arledge.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Christopher DeLisle, Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Garrett Siegel, Rachel Weiss.
Illustrations by Eric Heintz. ESPN Analytics: Allison Loucks, Matt Morris, Henry Gargiulo.
