Live NFL playoff picture: Updated chances, projections
We are following the 2024 NFL season's playoff picture. Here's how things look right now for wild-card spots, division races and even the draft order.
Live NFL playoff picture projections
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ESPN Analytics' live NFL playoff chances -- which combine current in-game win probabilities with our Football Power Index (FPI) season projections -- provide each team's postseason likelihood throughout the Week 17 and Week 18 slates. The projected final standings update regularly, and we're also tracking a few tight postseason races and the projected 2025 draft order for non-playoff teams. See how things stack up in both conferences all weekend long, throughout every game.
Current NFC playoff picture
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Current AFC playoff picture
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What to Watch
With two weeks left in the season, there are still five playoff spots (two in the AFC, three in the NFC) and five division titles there for the taking. Plus, the No. 1 seed hasn't been clinched in the NFC. We're tracking the closest, most interesting races live during Week 17 (and then again in Week 18). We have you covered through all the swings, big plays and surprises.
We begin with the AFC wild-card picture. Saturday's three-game slate has big implications; either the seven-team field could be set by the end of the day, or things could get interesting quickly.
Who will land the final two AFC wild-card spots?
The Chiefs, Bills and Texans have clinched their respective divisions, and the Ravens and Steelers are also both in the playoff field. Whichever of those two teams does not win the AFC North will take one of three wild-card slots. That means just two playoff spots are still up for grabs, and five teams -- the Chargers, Broncos, Bengals, Colts and Dolphins -- are vying for them.
The Chargers and Broncos have the clearest paths, and both can clinch with wins Saturday afternoon. The Chargers have a 1 p.m. ET game against the Patriots, while the Broncos face the Bengals at 4:30 p.m. ET. (Los Angeles can also clinch in a loss, as long as the Colts and Dolphins both lose Sunday.)
Who will earn the NFC's No. 1 seed?
Three teams are in play for the top seed in the NFC, which means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a bye in the wild-card round. The Lions are the favorites here, and they can actually clinch Monday if they beat the 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET) and the Vikings -- another contender for the No. 1 seed -- lose to the Packers on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET).
The Eagles, meanwhile, loom as the third team in the mix, though a Week 16 loss to the Commanders hurt their chances. They face the Cowboys on Sunday (1 p.m. ET). The Lions and Vikings are battling for the NFC North title, too, while the Eagles are closing in on the NFC East.
Who will win the NFC South?
This one could go either way. The Falcons -- who have pivoted from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix Jr. under center -- hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers, and they can even clinch the division this weekend. They're in with a win and a Bucs loss. But ESPN's FPI isn't so sure it will be that easy. Atlanta has a tough matchup with the Commanders on deck Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET), and Tampa Bay just has to hold off the Panthers (1 p.m. ET) to keep this going into Week 18.
Looking Ahead
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2025 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin), and each team will have the chance to land a top prospect in Round 1.
Who is set up to take Colorado's Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter? What about Miami's Cam Ward and Penn State's Abdul Carter? Here is how the draft order projects at this moment for the league's bottom 18 teams, along with their chances to pick at No. 1 and in the top five.
Projected 2025 NFL draft order
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Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics' live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI's projections, which simulate the season based on each team's strength, schedule and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team's various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2025 draft.
Edited by Ben Arledge and Dane Beavers.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Munehito Sawada, Garrett Siegel and Rachel Weiss.
Illustrations by Josue Evilla. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Chris Harden and Matt Morris.
