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Condemned to beat Mozambique in the AFCON last 16, Nigeria cannot afford to lose focus

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Dove: Nigeria's strength in depth is impressive (1:50)

Ed Dove praises Nigeria's strong performance vs. Uganda despite 8 changes to their starting XI. (1:50)

Despite the constant refrain of 'no more minnows in football', there are many ties in Africa that still carry the David vs Goliath vibe, and there will be few more applicable than Monday's AFCON round of 16 contest between Mozambique and Nigeria.

Three-time champions Nigeria enter their first knockout game of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations as the overwhelming, odds-on favourites against the figuratively puny Mozambique, who only managed their first AFCON a week ago, in their sixth tournament.

Their previous appearances against the Super Eagles saw them finish with a combined total of 0 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses, with 12 goals scored and 38 allowed.

Nigeria, on the other hand, are one of the continent's most decorated sides, holding the record of joint most appearances in the top four with Egypt.

In a tournament where the Mambas have achieved at least three significant firsts, notably that win against Gabon, they could well add another by claiming what would be the biggest upset in Nations Cup history by eliminating Nigeria.

All that being said, let's see a few things to look out for ahead of the game.

Coach Chelle under massive pressure

Let's be clear. While a game of football has three possible outcomes, for Nigeria, only one will count on Monday. Eric Chelle is well aware of the stakes here.

There is no universe where a loss, by any means will be acceptable to his employers, the fans or the Nigerian people. Tunisia's Sami Trabelsi was fired immediately after his team lost on penalty kicks to 10-man Mali on Saturday. Chelle will probably face a similar fate if he suffers the same outcome.

As a matter of fact, there can be circumstances where even a win, if deemed unconvincing, could open the door to unhealthy scrutiny of both the coach and his Super Eagles.

Chelle is well aware of the threat that Mozambique could prove to be. The Mambas have the freedom of knowing they everything to gain and nothing to lose, having already exceeded even their own modest expectations by reaching the round of 16.

For the Super Eagles, the exact opposite is true. Everything is on the line: Reputation, pedigree, respect, jobs, and more.

Whether it is that pressure, or just the desire to leave nothing to chance, the Malian has entered lockdown mode with his team, closing the doors to all but CAF-mandated media interactions in the three days leading up to the game.

Chelle needed bottles of ice cold water to cool him down while leading Mali last time out. He might need to place an order for half the Atlantic Ocean if his boys don't deliver.

Some selection conundrums

The off-field part out of the way, we turn our attention to what Chelle's selection decisions are likely to be, after his second string ran out and absolutely crushed it against Uganda.

Despite that win, there will be no chances to take here and the coach will want to roll out his strongest possible line up.

Defence all but picks itself, with goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali having no issues making his way back into the starting lineup. Right back could have had a question mark, but Ryan Alebiosu still recovering from injury means that Bright Osayi-Samuel should also reclaim his spot with ease, and it is hard to see Zaidu Sanusi dislodging Bruno Onyemaechi on the opposite side.

The two key questions are between the quartet of Frank Onyeka/Raphael Onyedika and Akor Adams/Paul Onuachu. Not only did Onyedika score twice, but his overall performance oozed discipline, composure and efficiency.

All of that might be needed to break down a potential Mambas low block. However, Onyeka's athleticism and willingness to get in the trenches might be just what the doctor ordered against a team that will most likely want to take the game into war of attrition territory.

Upfront, Onuachu dispelled any doubts that he could play seamlessly with Victor Osimhen, dropping deep to receive the ball, making his full 6'7" frame a constant aerial threat, and getting in the box to poke home a goal that Adams has not yet managed in two games.

That physical presence and aggression might be needed to unbalance the Mozambican back line. But Adams has qualities of his own, his speed, smartness and quick footwork could be just as effective in the box and in the pockets around it.

How Chelle expects Mozambique to play would determine his final call. Whatever he decides however, the key to victory would be for his players to stay disciplined in transition, as that is where the biggest threats would come from the Mambas.

Beware late, sneaky goals

As has been seen from previous games under Chelle, the Super Eagles' soft underbelly is allowing sneak attacks from opposition players, getting in behind the defence to score goals, usually late in the game.

It is an issue that the coach has admitted requires a solution, and against the Mambas, who are expected to sit deep and break with lightening fast precision just like the famed creature they are named after, there will be no margin for error.

Mozambique have shown that they can worry top teams. Ivane Urrubal has proven himself a more than competent goalkeeper and the Super Eagles will have to work hard to beat him. Ivory Coast could only get one past him, and Cameroon needed an own goal plus a spectacular strike to get past him.

The longer the Eagles take to do so, the more those opportunities open for those sneak attacks in transition, which could also lead to set piece opportunities.

Mozambique have goals in them, with four scored so far this tournament, the same as the Super Eagles have conceded, so there is need for caution.

Avoid the nightmare of 2021

Winning all three group games has never quite boded well for the Super Eagles, and the last time they did so, they were eliminated at this same stage by an underdog third-placed finisher.

Chelle's current squad has 10 players who were there in 2021 and bear the scars of that shock treatment. There is little doubt that a repeat performance is not on any of their bingo cards.

Mozambique may be much smaller fry than Tunisia in pedigree and history, but they still pose a real threat and underrating them could prove perilous.

So far, it seems the Super Eagles are giving them the respect they deserve as opponents and if they do the same on the pitch, this should be an exorcism of sorts from the ghost of 2021.

Which is why Chelle is not dwelling on the accolade of being named coach of the group phase: "I am happy about this recognition. But I will like to give the credit to my backroom staff who work tirelessly to make the team function. This development is a good motivation for me, the players and the entire squad.

"However, this is not why we are here. We are here for something bigger and better. We will not get ahead of ourselves and think we are the best. We will continue to work hard and stay focused for every match as it comes."

Prepare for penalty kicks

This goes without saying for any team in the knockout stage of a major competition, and the atrocious shootout between Mali and Tunisia on Saturday is proof that practice is needed. And even then, the pressure of the occasion may be overwhelming.

There is a tendency for a team like the Super Eagles to believe that this game will be won in regulation time because of the huge gap in talent and quality between these two sides. That would be a mistake.

The last time these two teams met at AFCON, the Super Eagles won 3-0 in Angola. But at their most recent meeting, a friendly match in 2023, the Super Eagles could only edge a slim 3-2 win, a singular warning that anything is possible.

Still, Nigeria lead the head to head with four wins, one draw and no loss, and if they play to the potential that their quality suggests, it is altogether possible that this match up could turn very ugly, very fast.