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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

          Michael Pineda of the Detroit Tigers could be a decent streaming option on Wednesday. Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 6, 2022, 12:35 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • By the end of Wednesday's action, just over half of the MLB schedule will be in the books. It's been an exciting first half, but the best is yet to come. The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres get a rare Wednesday off. Midweek day baseball continues with the slate commencing at 1:10 PM ET in Motown as Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians wrap up a four-game set against Michael Pineda and the Detroit Tigers. Pineda (2% rostered in ESPN leagues) will be making his second start since returning from the IL with a fractured finger. The Guardians don't whiff too much, but Pineda is still in play as a streamer in what should be a low-scoring game.

          • The day's top streaming option is David Peterson (25%) who will be returning to the New York Mets after being away a few days on paternity leave. The lefty has been on a roll, punching out 25 hitters while issuing just two walks over his last three starts, covering 18 1/3 innings. Next up is a Cincinnati Reds offense sitting mid-pack in wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws, but the way Peterson has been dealing lately, he merits a start -- even in the Great American Ballpark.

          • Josiah Gray (46%), Alex Cobb (21%) and Brayan Bello (5%). After a stellar June, Gray will aim to rebound from a rough outing to begin July as he has a road date in Philadelphia against a Phillies lineup missing Bryce Harper. After bottoming out in May with a 6.25 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, Cobb's fortunes have changed as he's posted a 1.86 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in four starts since his nadir. Cobb is earmarked for another solid outing in the desert against a Diamondbacks offense with the third -lowest wOBA facing righties for the past month. Bello will make his big-league debut for the Red Sox against a Rays offense with the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handers. With Triple-A Worcester, the 23-year-old rookie whiffed 72 in 51 1/3 innings.

          • Deciding to start or sit a struggling, but established pitcher is one of the toughest decisions for fantasy managers. It's understandable if those rostering Jose Berrios and Trevor Rogers are waiting for a good outing before trusting them again. Neither pitched to their old form last time out, but each gutted out an encouraging effort. With Berrios in Oakland against the worst offense versus right-handers and Rogers at home facing an Angels lineup with the sixth-poorest wOBA with a lefty on the hill, both merit fantasy starts, as well as DFS consideration.

          • Vinnie Pasquantino (11%) is hitting only .176 through Monday's action, but a .417 OBP warrants a look in points leagues. With Eddie Rosario (46%) back for the Braves, both he and Adam Duvall (25%) will likely form a timeshare in left field. As such, neither deserves a regular spot on a fantasy roster. Still, both are solid pickups when enjoying the platoon edge, putting Rosario in play facing Miles Mikolas. Jorge Alfaro's playing time has picked up lately. Alfaro (8%) is quietly the 13th highest catcher on the ESPN Player Rater.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Wednesday

          Prop of the Day

          James Kaprielian pitching outs: Over/Under 15.5 (+135/-180)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Kaprielian putting up 17.2 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.8% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $45.13.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Chris Guccione, expected to be behind the plate in this game, grades out as a pitcher's umpire.

          • Oakland Coliseum profiles as the No. 28 park in the league for batting average, according to THE BAT X projection system.

          • The weatherman calls for the best pitching weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          • The Athletics' outfield defense projects as the best of all teams on the slate.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Blue Jays' projected batting order ranks as the second-best of the day.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 9.9 mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.