<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Nobody is expecting Reid Detmers to throw another no-hitter on Tuesday. John Cordes/Icon Sportswire
          • ESPN Fantasy
          May 17, 2022, 01:59 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Tuesday brings bonus baseball with a trio of doubleheaders on the docket. The slate begins with the Kansas City Royals hosting the Chicago White Sox, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers entertaining the Arizona Diamondbacks. Batters and relievers are the best fantasy targets since there is twice the chance for production. Southpaw Tyler Anderson is slated to work one of the games for the Dodgers, rendering right-handed swingers Christian Walker (5% rostered in ESPN leagues) and Jordan Luplow (1% rostered) as desired Arizona batters as they may well see action in both. Gavin Lux (53%) and Edwin Rios (1%) are in play for the Dodgers. As for relievers, Mark Melancon (37%) and Ian Kennedy (5%) have been handling the closing duties for the Diamondbacks, while Daniel Hudson (3%) is likely to get the call in the late game if Craig Kimbrel closes out the matinee.

          • Both the Royals and White Sox are slated to start right-handers in both ends, putting left-handed swingers in the spotlight. They may not play both, but it's still worth deploying them, just in case. It's tough finding Kansas City batters to recommend as most are struggling, but Nicky Lopez (8%) is an option for steals. Gavin Sheets (3%) is the best option to see extra action for the White Sox. In terms of closers, it's worth checking to see if Kansas City's Scott Barlow (75%) is available but, if not, Josh Staumont (3%) could be summoned in the unlikely event Kansas City has a chance to sweep. Kendall Graveman (9%) is in play for the White Sox in case Liam Hendriks works in the opener.

          • Tuesday marks Reid Detmers (12%) first start since tossing the season's first "solo" no-hitter. His low roster percentage is a bit surprising but picking him up for Tuesday's tilt in Arlington feels like a trap. On paper, the matchup isn't daunting, though Texas doesn't fan much facing southpaws. It's more about Detmers getting by with smoke and mirrors as his .174 BABIP is artificially suppressing his 0.84 WHIP. Plus, a pedestrian 16.8% strikeout rate isn't going to help mitigate the impending correction. Additionally, the Angels will likely cut Detmers' outing short after being extended last time out. This all serves to render the Rangers bats as targets, especially Eli White (15%) who is a perfect 7-for-7 on steals. Andy Ibanez (1%) and Nick Solak (1%) should also see action with a lefty on the hill.

          • One of the more intriguing matchups features Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners visiting Jose Berrios and the Toronto Blue Jays. Both starters are rostered in more than 95% of ESPN leagues, which usually indicates an automatic start. However, there is risk for both. Starting with Gilbert, while he's fanned 27 over his last four starts (spanning 21 1/3 innings), he's also issued 13 free passes -- and you don't want to be giving the Blue Jays any extra baserunners. Berrios is known for consistency, but this season he's been consistently mediocre with a career-low 15.3% strikeout rate, around 10% lower than expected. He's also administered an unusually high six homers in 34 frames. The catch is, there isn't anything in Berrios' underlying metrics to portend a rebound. That is, he hasn't been unlucky. He's simply pitched poorly. That said, a multi-year track record is more telling than six starts, so not only is Berrios safe to start on Tuesday, he's actually a solid buy-low target. Gilbert, on the other hand, is best left on reserve as Toronto's lineup is formidable, especially at home.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

          Prop of the Day

          Alex Cobb strikeouts: Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Cobb putting up 4.2 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 39.4% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $17.22.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • THE BAT X projects Cobb in the 90th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

          • Cobb's fastball velocity has risen 1.7 mph this year (93.8 mph) over where it was last season (92.1 mph).

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • THE BAT X projects Cobb to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (11th-fewest on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

          • Coors Field grades out as the No. 30 venue in MLB for strikeouts, via THE BAT X projection system.

          • The weather report calls for the fourth-best hitting weather of the slate today.

          • Cobb will be at a disadvantage by playing on the road today.