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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games
By Derek Carty
Sonny Gray is already rostered in most leagues, but he's still out there for more than 20% of you. Seeing as how he's projected to be one of the top pitchers of the entire day (right there with Corbin Burnes, Shane McClanahan, Zac Gallen, and all the other big names available today), it's worth taking a quick minute to see if he's out there on your waiver wire. He faces a weak and strikeout-prone Tigers offense with some of the better pitching weather of the day.
For a more widely available option, take a look at top prospect George Kirby (25% rostered). He's coming off a rough start in Boston, but the matchup was very difficult, especially in comparison to the elite spot he gets today, facing perhaps baseball's worst offense in the Oakland A's. He's raw, but he also has a great potential and fantastic stuff.
If your league jumps on top prospects immediately and Kirby is gone, you'll almost surely have Kyle Freeland (3%) available to you. He gets a cake matchup getting out of Coors Field and going into pitcher-friendly PNC to face the lowly Pirates. And if you're in a weekly league (or even in a daily league where you can hold him for a few extra days), he gets another great spot in Washington later this week.
If you're a Logan Webb rosterer in a shallower league, you might want to consider benching him today. He might not implode, necessarily, but it's a very tough matchup against an elite and low-strikeout Mets offense that should see him perform well below his usual baseline.
If you're looking for high-upside offense that's widely available, look no further than Texas today. Noah Syndergaard is a shell of his former self but is still every bit as exploitable on the basepaths as he has always been. THE BAT X grades him out as easily the worst pitcher in baseball at preventing stolen bases, even worse when facing the Rangers, who project to score the fourth-most runs on the slate. There are lots of paths to points here, and most of this offense will be out there on your wire. Mitch Garver is shockingly only rostered in 19% of leagues. Now that he's healthy, though, go get him, use him here, and hold him, as he projects as a top-eight catcher the rest of the season. Eli White (1%) is your guy if you're chasing steals. And Adolis Garcia (54%), Nathaniel Lowe (37%), Kole Calhoun (11%), and Brad Miller (7%) are all great options as well.
It's not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
David Peralta (ARI, LF -- 14%) vs. Heasley
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF -- 43%) vs. Stroman
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF -- 23%) vs. Heasley
Pavin Smith (ARI, RF -- 5%) vs. Heasley
Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF -- 10%) vs. Stroman
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 56%) at S. Gray
Javier Baez (DET, SS -- 79%) at S. Gray
Trent Grisham (SD, CF -- 50%) vs. Burnes
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF -- 64%) at Montgomery
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 70%) at Montgomery
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
Prop of the Day
George Kirby pitching outs: Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-145)
THE BAT X sees Kirby putting up 17.1 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.2% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $28.45.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
The Oakland lineup projects as the worst offense on the slate today, according to THE BAT X.
Alex Tosi, expected to be calling pitches today, projects to be a pitchers umpire.
Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as a good pitch framer, according to THE BAT X projection system.
T-Mobile Park grades out as the No. 24 stadium in baseball for batting average, according to THE BAT X projection system.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
Kirby has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
Kirby allowed a monstrous five earned runs in his last game start.