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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          From Baseball Savant, Corey Kluber of the Tampa Bay Rays has a walk rate of 4%, his lowest since 2018. Mike Carlson/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 25, 2022, 01:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Saturday's MLB Games

          By Mike Sheets

          • Since allowing eight runs to the Los Angeles Angels back in early May, Corey Kluber (50% rostered in ESPN leagues) has delivered a 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his last seven starts. Just once in those seven outings did he allow more than two earned runs. While Kluber took advantage of multiple favorable matchups against the Baltimore Orioles during that stretch, he also held the Yankees to one earned run over 12 frames, so he's not just picking on bad teams. Saturday's matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates puts Kluber in another favorable spot, making the right-hander a slam-dunk streaming option if he's still available in your league.

          • There's some risk in Josiah Gray's (39%) profile given his 4.2 walk rate and 1.84 HR/9, but there's some nice upside here, too. In addition to posting a 0.82 ERA over his last four starts, including six shutout frames against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last outing, he's also put up a 9.6 K/9 this season. Gray isn't necessarily a guy you trust enough to throw out there no matter the matchup, but he matches up well with a Texas Rangers club that's been below average against righties (91 wRC+) with a 25.1% strikeout rate in June.

          • Plenty of prospects have been making their big-league debuts in recent weeks, but it's hard to find a rookie who has made such an immediate impact as Michael Harris II (42%). As the youngest player in major league baseball, Harris is batting .333/.363/.552 with three homers and two steals in his first 24 games. He's also a terrific defender in center field, which should help keep him in the lineup should his bat eventually cool down. Harris looks like a strong pickup who could pay long-term dividends.

          • Zach Eflin is an underrated pitcher, but he's been roughed up in his last two outings and is now dealing with a right knee injury that he's expected to try to pitch through on Saturday. It's unlikely that the right-hander will have this best stuff, so it might be a golden opportunity to stack San Diego bats against him. Luke Voit (44%), who is batting .297/.409/.703 over his last nine games, is a good name to target. Also consider Trent Grisham (49%), who has moved back to the leadoff spot in the team's last two games against righties.

          • You wouldn't necessarily know it from his 42% rostered percentage, but Nathaniel Lowe has been a top-10 fantasy first baseman over the past month. Since June 1, he's batting .304/.329/.582 with six homers and 12 RBI in 20 games. While we already recommended Josiah Gray as a potential streamer on Saturday, Lowe matches up well, getting the platoon advantage against a fly ball pitcher who has trouble with homers.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday

          Prop of the Day

          Corey Kluber Pitching Outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-180/+135)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Kluber putting up 16.1 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 40.7% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $39.46.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game of the day - favorable for pitching.

          • Kluber has gone to his cutter 7.8% more often this year (35.1%) than he did last year (27.3%).

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the ninth-unluckiest offense in the majors this season, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform better in the future.

          • James Hoye projects as a Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

          • Tropicana Field grades out as the No. 3 ballpark in the majors for walks, via THE BAT projection system.

          • The Pittsburgh Pirates have seven bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Corey Kluber today.