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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Yusei Kikuchi of the Toronto Blue Jays is averaging a career-high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 5, 2022, 12:55 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

          By Derek Carty

          • Aside from the universally-rostered Sandy Alcantara, Mike Clevinger (64% rostered) projects as the top pitcher on Tuesday's slate according to THE BAT X. He's looked sharp since returning from injury this year (2.79 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 9.6 K/9) and he faces a below-average Mariners offense with the second-best pitching weather on the slate.

          • If Clevinger isn't available, there's a good chance Yusei Kikuchi (37%) is. He gets a huge park upgrade going into Oakland, where its 66 degree weather is the best on the slate for arms. He also gets to face baseball's weakest offense in the A's. You won't find a better spot to stream than this. If Clevinger and Kikuchi are gone, see if Alex Wood (60%) is available.

          • With closer Kenley Jansen out for Atlanta, A.J. Minter (16%) and Will Smith (27%) remain widely available. Perhaps that's because it's not clear who will get the save on any given day, with Minter recording the first and Smith the last two. Minter in particular is one of the top relievers in baseball for ratios, so at the very least you'll get some good innings out of him.

          • Noah Syndergaard represents the No. 1 matchup in all of baseball for stolen bases. MLB's steals leader, Jon Berti (39%), is still available in nearly two-thirds of leagues. Get him if he's out there. If he isn't there, Joey Wendle (11%) and Miguel Rojas (5%) both stand a decent chance of swiping a bag here. And be sure to check the starting lineup, because if recently-recalled Billy Hamilton (sub-1%) cracks the starting nine, his speed would make him a fantastic bet if he could find a way on base.

          • The Philadelphia Phillies project for the second-most runs on this slate behind the Yankees. They face Paolo Espino in a strong power park with double-digit winds blowing out. Darick Hall (3%) has been hitting cleanup against righties, and guys like Alec Bohm (17%) and Odubel Herrera (1%) could also be worth streaming in deeper leagues.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

          Prop of the Day

          Nick Pivetta pitching outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+115)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Pivetta putting up 16.7 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.1% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $20.11.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Mark Ripperger, expected to be calling pitches today, projects as a pitcher's umpire.

          • The weather report calls for the fourth-best pitching weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Rays have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

          • Fenway Park ranks as the No. 2 stadium in the game for batting average, according to THE BAT X projection system.

          • Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in the majors.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to left at 12.9 mph in this matchup, the strongest of the day for bats.