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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Taj Bradley throws a pitch against the Houston Astros. Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN Fantasy
          May 23, 2023, 03:50 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best utilize the information, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

          By Derek Carty

          • If you're looking to stream pitching Tuesday, there are two strong and widely available options: Marco Gonzales (4% rostered in ESPN leagues) and Logan Allen (sub-1% rostered). Gonzales faces the Oakland A's, perhaps baseball's weakest offense, with the second-best pitching weather of the day. Allen faces a below-average Chicago White Sox squad that takes a significant park downgrade. Prioritize Gonzales if you need wins, Allen if you need strikeouts.

          • Despite a 4.78 ERA, Dylan Cease remains rostered in 95% of leagues. His strikeouts are down while his walks, fly balls and home runs are up. He faces the league's lowest-strikeout offense in the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday and projects for a 4.81 ERA in this matchup, according to THE BAT X. If you're still rostering him, it's probably best you keep him on the bench for now.

          • The next big pitching prospect to make his 2023 debut is Bobby Miller against the Atlanta Braves. The Los Angeles Dodgers hurler was ESPN's 25th overall prospect coming into this season, and he'll get run support from one of baseball's elite offenses. If you pick him up, it's best to sit him in this tough matchup, but the talent and upside are there for him over the remainder of the season, especially with the Dodgers dealing with so many injuries right now.

          • The top offense today is the Miami Marlins going into Coors Field to face Austin Gomber. Outside of Luis Arraez (96%), the entire team is basically unrostered and should be available. Right-handers such as Jorge Soler (14%), Jean Segura (8%), Bryan De La Cruz (4%) and Garrett Cooper (4%) are elite streams.

          • If you're streaming for home runs specifically, however, you'd be better off checking out the St. Louis Cardinals in Great American Ball Park. They project for the most homers of the day, according to THE BAT X. Nolan Gorman (51%), Lars Nootbaar (27%), Brendan Donovan (23%), Paul DeJong (3%), Alec Burleson (sub-1%) and Oscar Mercado (sub-1%) are all strong choices.

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          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          There was a runner on second base with one out in the eighth. The Cardinals just tied the Reds 5-5 when Manager David Bell brought in Alexis Diaz to keep it that way and he retired the next two batters . All eight position players accompanied Diaz when he left the dugout to pitch the ninth, but all he needed was his catcher as the righthander faced six hitters, sandwiching three walks around three punch outs. The 34 pitches required to record five outs likely has Diaz sitting out Tuesday night. The problem is the Reds needed 5 2/3 innings from their relievers last night, and there isn't much to trust beyond Diaz. It's probably best to avoid the Cincinnati bullpen tonight.

          Like Diaz, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley was also asked to secure more than three outs last night. Helsely pitched the ninth, keeping the game knotted at five, but in part his own fault after allowing the ghost runner to take third base on a wild pitch, the Reds won the game on a sacrifice fly. Helsley threw 23 pitches just two days after tossing 26 on Saturday. The combined 49 likely will earn Helsley the night off. Giovanny Gallegos also pitched yesterday and Saturday, but he threw only 34 combined pitches. Jordan Hicks may have worked himself back into high-leverage favor with six straight scoreless appearances, fanning 11 over those 7 2/3 stanzas.

          After gathering 13 innings in April, David Bednar headed into last night's game with only four May frames. Pirates manager Derek Shelton asked Bednar to pitch the ninth with the club up by four runs. Bednar yielded a pair of tallies, but Pittsburgh held on for the 6-4 win over Texas. However, Bednar needed 24 pitches, so his availability for tonight's contest is in jeopardy. He's been used back-to-back twice already this season, but it was after throwing far fewer pitches. Still, considering the lack of work this month, Bednar is still in play tonight if the Pirates have a chance to take another game from Texas. Colin Holderman has nine holds, so he's a solid option regardless, but he's also next up if Bednar's 46 pitches over the last three days keeps him out.

          By virtue of hosting the Athletics, the Mariners bullpen should enjoy a productive few days. It's worth checking on Paul Sewald (64.6% rostered) as he leads Seattle with nine saves. Justin Topa tops the club with eight holds, followed by Matt Brash with four. Brash also contributes points via the punch out as he's fanned 39 hitters in 20 innings.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Yu Darvish O/U 18.5 pitching outs (+125/-165)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Darvish putting up 19.0 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $20.94.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • According to projections, the Washington Nationals offense is rated as the fourth-weakest among all teams.

          • Based on THE BAT X, the Washington Nationals hold the sixth-highest offense luck in MLB this year and are expected to have a lower performance for the remainder of the season.

          • Via THE BAT projection system, Nationals Park is ranked as the 25th park in Major League Baseball for batting average.

          • The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.5-mph in this match-up, the third-best of the day for pitchers.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the seventh-shallowest.

          • The Washington Nationals have six hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yu Darvish in this matchup.