Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Todd ZolaApr 12, 2025, 07:20 PM
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.3	Roki Sasaki	R	CHC	85.1%	-185	8.5	58%	6.1	2.5	6.4
12.3	Bryan Woo	R	TEX	76.5%	-150	7.5	57%	5.5	1.8	5.0
11.9	Cristopher Sanchez	L	@STL	83.1%	-165	7.5	60%	5.8	2.2	5.2
11.8	Sandy Alcantara	R	WSH	85.0%	-150	7.5	58%	6.3	2.6	5.6
11.3	Corbin Burnes	R	MIL	97.9%	-180	8.5	61%	5.7	2.4	5.9
10.6	Richard Fitts	R	@CWS	6.9%	-165	7.5	63%	5.6	2.4	4.8
10.5	Bowden Francis	R	@BAL	68.4%	+105	8.5	52%	5.5	2.5	5.3
9.9	Andrew Abbott	L	PIT	3.6%	-135	8.5	57%	5.6	2.9	5.8
9.7	Jackson Jobe	R	@MIN	20.1%	+105	8.5	54%	5.0	2.0	4.7
9.4	Ryan Gusto	R	LAA	1.3%	-160	9.5	57%	5.2	2.4	5.2
9.2	David Peterson	L	@ATH	18.8%	-145	9.5	57%	5.5	2.8	5.6
8.8	Will Warren	R	SF	4.3%	-135	8.5	49%	5.0	2.4	5.1
8.8	Chase Dollander	R	@SD	7.2%	+145	8.5	52%	5.1	2.3	4.7
8.8	Kumar Rocker	R	@SEA	8.5%	+125	7.5	43%	4.5	1.8	4.6
8.5	Jordan Hicks	R	@NYY	25.2%	+115	8.5	51%	5.3	2.5	4.7
7.9	Ben Brown	R	@LAD	1.9%	+155	8.5	42%	4.7	2.2	5.2
7.8	AJ Smith-Shawver	R	@TB	4.1%	+125	8.5	53%	4.9	2.5	4.5
7.8	Michael Lorenzen	R	@CLE	5.5%	+115	7.5	55%	5.1	2.6	4.5
7.5	Andrew Heaney	L	@CIN	15.6%	+115	8.5	43%	4.9	2.7	5.3
7.5	Tyler Anderson	L	@HOU	1.9%	+135	9.5	43%	5.3	2.7	4.9
7.4	Trevor Williams	R	@MIA	1.6%	+125	7.5	42%	5.2	2.6	4.5
7.4	Martin Perez	L	BOS	34.8%	+140	7.5	37%	5.3	2.8	4.7
7.0	Miles Mikolas	R	PHI	2.0%	+140	7.5	40%	5.4	2.9	4.0
6.3	Chris Paddack	R	DET	0.8%	-125	8.5	46%	5.0	3.0	4.7
6.2	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	TOR	8.4%	-125	8.5	48%	4.9	2.7	3.9
6.1	Drew Rasmussen	R	ATL	29.6%	-150	8.5	47%	3.9	1.9	3.6
6.0	Luis Ortiz	R	KC	1.9%	-135	7.5	45%	5.2	3.0	4.0
6.0	Chad Patrick	R	@ARI	2.2%	+150	8.5	39%	4.7	2.8	4.4
5.8	J.T. Ginn	R	NYM	0.1%	+120	9.5	43%	4.7	2.7	4.3
5.6	Kyle Hart	L	COL	1.2%	-175	8.5	48%	3.6	1.7	3.1

Pitchers to stream Saturday

Boston Red Sox RHP Richard Fitts has opened the season with a pair of quality starts, though he's only fanned eight over 12 innings. Even so, the rookie lines up for another favorable effort on the road against the Chicago White Sox.
Streaming on the road in the Great American Ball Park is usually ill advised, but the Cincinnati Reds offense has yet to get untracked and their strikeout rate is the seventh highest in the league. Pittsburgh Pirates LHP Andrew Heaney punched out 10 New York Yankees in seven frames in his last outing, and the southpaw should pile up more strikeouts on Saturday.

Pitchers to avoid Saturday

Only six of the Saturday's 30 probable starters are rostered in over half of ESPN leagues and there isn't anyone meriting a hard pass. The closest is Toronto Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios for his road date with the Baltimore Orioles. However, the Orioles are slow out of the gate and Berrios was solid last time out, limiting the Boston Red Sox to just one run over seven frames in Fenway Park, albeit with only two strikeouts.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream Saturday

In May, all Saturday afternoon games in Sacramento will be played at night to avoid the hotter afternoons. However, it's still April so the temperature will be in the hitter friendly high 70s when the Athletics host the New York Mets. RHP Mitch Spence is slated to take the hill for the home team, landing the left-handed contingent of the Mets in a favorable spot. OF Brandon Nimmo and OF Jesse Winker should benefit the most.
Temperature is never a problem in Houston with the retractable roof in Daikin Park. However, the Houston Astros right-handed batters pose a problem for Los Angeles Angels LHP Tyler Alexander. SS Jeremy Pena and 2B Brendan Rodgers are the main streamers for the home team.

Hitters to avoid Saturday

There aren't any offenses to avoid, so let's check in on the teams doing the best job controlling the running game early in the season. Be wary of stolen bases when your batters are facing the Mets, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, White Sox and Detroit Tigers. They're the only five batteries cutting down at least 40% of would-be base stealers.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those utilized in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rangers @ Mariners | NRFI (-135) Projection59% chance of NO RUN with a $4.50 EV Brewers @ D-Backs | NRFI (-105) Projection52% chance of NO RUN with a $1.97 EV Phillies @ Cardinals | NRFI (-125) Projection56% chance of NO RUN with a $0.42 EV