Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 10, 2025, 11:06 AM

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games also will be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.0	Dylan Cease	R	LAD	94.4%	-125	8.5	58%	5.7	2.3	6.4
11.4	MacKenzie Gore	L	@NYM	91.2%	+125	7.5	52%	5.4	2.1	6.3
10.4	Griffin Canning	R	WSH	32.2%	-150	7.5	48%	5.6	2.2	5.1
10.3	Andrew Abbott	L	@CLE	64.2%	-110	8.5	60%	5.4	2.5	5.6
9.8	Shane Smith	R	@HOU	19.9%	+145	7.5	41%	5.1	2.2	5.7
9.5	Mitch Keller	R	MIA	51.2%	-145	8.5	52%	5.9	2.9	5.3
9.5	Chris Bassitt	R	@STL	66.4%	-105	8.5	52%	5.8	2.7	5.2
8.7	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	CWS	28.9%	-175	7.5	59%	4.7	2.1	5.3
8.4	Colin Rea	R	@PHI	6.1%	-110	9.5	59%	5.4	3.0	5.0
8.2	Max Fried	L	@KC	99.5%	-190	8.5	53%	5.4	2.9	5.5
8.1	Ryan Pepiot	R	@BOS	41.2%	-110	9.5	59%	5.1	2.8	5.1
8.0	Brandon Pfaadt	R	SEA	63.9%	-130	9.5	47%	5.3	2.9	5.2
8.0	Cade Povich	L	DET	1.4%	-130	9.5	55%	5.3	2.9	5.2
7.9	Sandy Alcantara	R	@PIT	41.5%	+120	8.5	48%	5.8	3.0	4.8
7.8	Grant Holmes	R	@MIL	18.4%	-125	8.5	50%	5.0	2.7	5.4
7.5	Tyler Mahle	R	@MIN	78.7%	+105	8.5	44%	5.0	2.4	4.5
7.4	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	TEX	0.5%	-125	8.5	56%	4.9	2.6	4.5
7.1	Logan Evans	R	@ARI	1.2%	+110	9.5	53%	5.4	3.1	4.8
6.9	Miles Mikolas	R	TOR	5.6%	-115	8.5	48%	5.4	2.8	3.6
6.7	Noah Cameron	L	NYY	42.2%	+160	8.5	47%	5.3	3.1	4.8
5.7	Matt Sauer	R	@SD	0.1%	+105	8.5	42%	4.0	2.0	3.5
5.4	Jose Soriano	R	ATH	8.4%	-150	8.5	45%	5.1	3.0	4.6
5.4	Slade Cecconi	R	CIN	1.7%	-110	8.5	40%	4.6	2.9	4.4
5.2	Sawyer Gipson-Long	R	@BAL	1.8%	+110	9.5	45%	4.3	2.8	4.2
5.1	Mitch Spence	R	@LAA	1.1%	+125	8.5	55%	5.1	3.4	4.2
5.0	Quinn Priester	R	ATL	2.7%	+105	8.5	50%	5.1	3.3	4.1
4.6	Lucas Giolito	R	TB	3.2%	-110	9.5	41%	5.0	3.8	5.4
4.4	Mick Abel	R	CHC	24.4%	-110	9.5	41%	4.5	3.1	4.8
1.9	Kyle Harrison	L	@COL	3.2%	-215	11.5	65%	4.7	4.9	5.1
-2.3	Carson Palmquist	L	SF	0.0%	+180	11.5	35%	4.4	5.8	5.1

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Griffin Canning heads a lush group of streamers. He'll take the hill in Citi Field when the New York Mets take on the Washington Nationals. The righty ended May with a couple of subpar outings but began June with a stellar road effort against the Los Angeles Dodgers, tossing six scoreless frames while fanning seven. The Nationals sport a below average offense and will incur a steep park downgrade.

Not long ago, streaming a pitcher on the road against the Houston Astros wasn't a consideration, let alone a rookie Rule 5 pick. However, the Astros check in with the seventh lowest wOBA versus right-handers, and Shane Smith is having a solid season after being drafted first overall by the Chicago White Sox in the Rule 5 draft. Smith's 2.45 ERA is benefiting from a .253 BABIP and 6.8% HR/FB, but his 4.05 xFIP and 4.03 SIERA show he's a league average pitcher while punching out 60 in 62 1/3 innings works for fantasy purposes.
Mitch Keller tossed at least six frames for the sixth straight start last time, though he was touched for six runs by the Astros. Even so, he posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in that span. Keller is in a great spot to rebound with the Pittsburgh Pirates entertaining the Miami Marlins. The visitors tote the fourth lowest wOBA facing righties into the Steel City.
Lance McCullers Jr. has recorded two consecutive quality starts, garnering 19 strikeouts in those 12 innings while issuing only one free pass. Next up for the Astros right-hander is a home date with the White Sox and the league's least productive offense with a righty on the hill, making McCullers one of the top waiver wire pickups of the week.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. In this case, "you" is Brandon Pfaadt. Starting Pfaadt after he yielded eight runs to the Nationals without recording an out may not have been the wisest decision, but it was defensible. However, trusting him after five earned runs in just three frames is a mistake. Going back five outings, Pfaadt's ERA was 11.09 with a 1.71 WHIP in that span. He should not be active when the Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the Seattle Mariners to the desert.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Heliot Ramos and Wilmer Flores are rostered in just over half of ESPN leagues, but with the San Francisco Giants opening a set in Coors Field against lefty Carson Palmquist, the righty duo no-brainer starts if available. Jerar Encarnacion is also a strong option.

Hitters to avoid on Tuesday

This is your "first game of the series" reminder that the Kansas City Royals put the kibosh on the running game. Teams have tried just 20 steals against them all season, with only 10 successes. The New York Yankees open a three-game set in Kauffman Stadium, so temper expectations for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jasson Dominguez and Cody Bellinger over the next three games.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has had bad variance on his side thus far in 2025 when it comes to his wOBA. His .350 rate is a good deal lower than his .402 Expected wOBA (based on my projections).

Abraham Toro | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Toro is penciled in third on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.09 EV
One reason to bet this: Despite posting a .317 wOBA this year, my projections believe Rodriguez has experienced some negative variance, given the .046 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .363.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Mitch Spence | OVER 2.5 K (-125)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.17 EV
One reason to bet this: The Angels have five batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via my projections) (Chris Taylor, Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell, Scott Kingery).

Chris Bassitt | UNDER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.51 EV
One reason to bet this: Clint Vondrak, anticipated to be behind the plate in this game, projects as a huge "hitter's umpire."

Andrew Abbott | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.38 EV
One reason to bet this: It's likely that we will see a huge "hitter's umpire" (Todd Tichenor) calling pitches in this game.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Giants @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 62% chance of RUN with a $5.60 EV

Tigers @ Orioles | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $1.07 EV

Dodgers @ Padres | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.90 EV