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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
David Peterson turned 30 years old earlier this month, yet he's the veteran presence in the New York Mets rotation. Leaders must step up in big games, and the Mets are hanging onto a slim lead for the final NL Wild Card when they face the San Diego Padres, currently slated to be the second NL Wild Card. Peterson seemingly struggled a bit during the second half, but he's still managed 55 strikeouts while surrendering only three homers in 53 1/3 innings since the break. His .355 BABIP and 63.8% left on base mark bloated his ERA to 5.23 in this span, almost two runs higher than its estimators. The Padres don't fan much against left-handers, but they sport one of the least potent lineups facing southpaws.
Nine of Brady Singer's last 11 outings have been quality starts, including his last six. Over this span, his ERA is a crisp 3.36 with a 1.05 WHIP, fully supported by a 26.5% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate. The Cincinnati Reds have a road date with the St. Louis Cardinals, so Singer benefits from working in a more favorable venue than his home park, as well as facing a lineup with the fourth-lowest wOBA and fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers over the past month.
Lucas Giolito hasn't pitched as well as his 2.93 ERA over his last 10 games suggests, but the Boston Red Sox have won seven of those contests. They'll be favored at home against the Athletics and Mason Barnett, one of the lowest-rated starters on Wednesday's slate. The Athletics rely on home runs, and Giolito has been susceptible to the long ball. That said, Fenway Park embellishes runs while suppressing homers and Giolito has kept the ball in the yard at home. Plus, the crisper September evenings reduce fly ball carry.
Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday
Cole Ragans is slated for only three starts the rest of the regular season after returning from a lengthy IL visit. It's tempting to use him in his first one back when the Kansas City Royals host the Seattle Mariners, but the lefty will likely be held to a conservative pitch count, perhaps falling short of five innings. The safe play is being patient, and perhaps unleashing Ragans for his double-dip next week.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.66 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Reds hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.04 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.09 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.73 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.35 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B+ | Wind: A | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.13 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
Usually, when a visiting team is in Coors Field, only the secondary batters are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues. The Miami Marlins lack anyone with a rostership over 50%. The first four batters in their typical lineup are Xavier Edwards, Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez and Otto Lopez. All are in play as streamers, along with Liam Hicks, Heriberto Hernandez and Connor Norby.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Miami Marlins LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .367 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .359 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Mets LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .283 wOBA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .283 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.30 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of his home runs, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has suffered from bad luck this year. His 21.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than my projections' version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.9.
Andy Pages | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.25 EV
One reason to bet this: In the league, Dodger Stadium has the second-lowest average fence height.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.07 EV
One reason to bet this: Brent Rooker has seen an increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the past seven days to his seasonal 90.7-mph EV.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Tyler Wells | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.99 EV
One reason to bet this: Tyler Wells has averaged 82.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 21st percentile.
Kevin Gausman | UNDER 5.5 K (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.10 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the third-highest level on the schedule today at 81 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Angels @ Brewers | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $5.17 EV
Reds @ Cardinals | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $4.30 EV
Yankees @ Twins | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $2.37 EV