Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Grant Holmes has edge vs. Marlins

ESPN FantasyApr 12, 2026, 04:29 PM
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. All fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball buzz.

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ESPN's 2026 Draft Guide | Betting notes for Monday

STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.4	Paul Skenes	R	WSH	99.9%	44%	5.7	6.4	2.0	6.1
12.6	Cristopher Sanchez	L	CHC	99.5%	45%	6.1	7.1	2.4	5.9
12.5	Garrett Crochet	L	@MIN	99.9%	34%	5.4	6.3	2.1	6.5
12.4	George Kirby	R	HOU	98.0%	42%	5.8	6.5	2.2	5.6
11.2	Nathan Eovaldi	R	@ATH	81.9%	34%	5.7	6.9	2.5	5.8
11.0	David Peterson	L	@LAD	8.6%	37%	5.7	7.1	2.3	5.5
10.7	Will Warren	R	LAA	27.4%	32%	5.2	6.4	2.2	5.8
9.5	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@NYY	17.0%	26%	5.5	7.4	2.7	6.1
9.5	Gavin Williams	R	@STL	85.6%	33%	5.2	7.1	2.3	5.4
9.1	Luis Severino	R	TEX	6.4%	30%	5.7	7.6	2.7	5.1
8.8	Bailey Ober	R	BOS	18.2%	25%	5.4	6.9	2.8	5.3
8.4	Dean Kremer	R	ARI	0.8%	33%	5.5	7.3	2.9	4.7
8.2	Eury Perez	R	@ATL	84.5%	29%	4.8	6.4	2.5	5.0
8.2	Ryne Nelson	R	@BAL	12.7%	29%	5.4	6.9	2.9	4.8
7.8	Grant Holmes	R	MIA	23.9%	26%	5.2	7.4	2.9	5.4
7.7	Mike Burrows	R	@SEA	8.2%	18%	5.1	7.0	2.6	5.1
6.6	Javier Assad	R	@PHI	5.6%	19%	4.9	7.0	2.6	4.4
6.2	Justin Wrobleski	L	NYM	2.2%	22%	5.0	7.4	2.8	4.4
6.0	Matthew Liberatore	L	CLE	8.3%	18%	4.8	7.1	2.7	4.3
4.6	Cade Cavalli	R	@PIT	6.3%	13%	4.5	7.4	2.8	4.4

Pitchers to stream on Monday

High pitch counts have twice prevented Will Warren from going the requisite five innings to be credited with a win. In a combined nine frames over those outings, he yielded only three earned runs but walked five to go along with eight punchouts. In the other game, Warren lasted 5⅔ innings with six strikeouts and no walks. Something has to give on Monday when the New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels. The visitors bring the second-highest strikeout rate and the sixth-highest walk rate into the Bronx.
Grant Holmes' surface stats are misleading, as a high left-on-base rate results in his ERA estimators landing around two runs higher than his actual 2.55 mark, and a low BABIP has deflated his WHIP. Quirks like this are common after just three starts. More telling is a modest 14 strikeouts with eight walks in 17⅔ innings. On the other hand, Holmes' combined swinging and called strikes are higher than last year, but his strikeout rate is down 5.3 percentage points. More strikeouts will help fend off inevitable BABIP and left-on-base regression. On Monday, he has a favorable matchup with the Atlanta Braves hosting the Miami Marlins.
Mike Burrows has yet to live up to the hype he received in drafting season, though his xFIP and SIERA are well over a run better than his actual 5.63 ERA. He relies heavily on spin in his five-pitch repertoire, and the Houston Astros specialize in refining pitchers of this ilk, so expect Burrows to improve as the season progresses. Next up is a road date with the Seattle Mariners and the fourth-lowest wOBA in the young season.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

Eury Perez is off to a sluggish start to the season, with nine walks and four homers allowed over his three outings, spanning 16 innings. He is too talented not to come around, but in leagues with games started limits, leaving him on reserve for this early-week road matchup is the safe play. This is the busiest week of the season to date, so there will be ample chances to deploy the maximum number of starters. The Marlins visit the Braves, so Perez faces a lineup with the fourth-highest wOBA, fueled by the second-highest home run rate and fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the league.

Hitters to stream on Monday

Cade Cavalli's xFIP and SIERA are over twice as high as his actual 2.51 ERA. He's due for a steep correction, which could come Monday when the Washington Nationals have a road date against the surprisingly productive Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. Brandon Lowe (33% available in ESPN leagues) and Ryan O'Hearn (23% available) have rosterships over the usual 50% cutoff to be labeled as streamers, but it's worth checking in with them on an abbreviated eight-game slate. Marcell Ozuna, Nick Yorke, Spencer Horwitz and Konnor Griffin are also options.