Fantasy is a land of opportunity.
In the end, when it comes to the hunt for fantasy goodness? When all the trades are consummated? When draft night 2021 is officially closer than draft night 2020?
The past is merely prologue. It doesn't matter what team a player is on. How many minutes he's averaging. How many points he scores per game.
All that matters is what that player brings you when he's in your lineup.
We're approaching what I call fantasy basketball's "Silly Season." When lottery teams empty their benches. When playoff teams go full Popovich and start practicing unabashed load management. Unfortunately, this is also when we get into the fantasy endgame.
The endgame is available in myriad flavors. Fantasy playoffs. Season-long roto battles that can come down to a single foul shot. Whatever your flavor, right now, you're looking for a boost.
And that boost is most likely to arrive when quality meets opportunity. When a player who has been packing in production in limited minutes is suddenly given a larger role.
Someone is getting rested. Someone is shutting it down. Opening the path of a low-mileage, high-wattage producer to light it up for a few games. How can we predict who will perform when those opportunities invariably, inevitably arrive?
I look to two statistical areas: usage rate and per-36-minute production.
I've talked usage before. Which players are dominating possessions? Which players are teams trusting with the ball, to guide the flow on offense?
We haven't talked per-36 numbers, because up until now, they haven't held as much fantasy relevance in the early and middle stages of a fantasy campaign, when we want concrete numbers. Concrete roles. Concrete minutes. Not inflated projections of what said player could do given additional playing time.
Potential is for the preseason. But it's also for the endgame. And don't worry yourself about how a per-36 All-Star's role could change as a starter. If players dominate possession as a sixth man, they'll still annex plenty of plays in a starting five.
The bigger reason you can't expect an exact duplicate of per-36 stats: competition. A lot of these per-36 standouts are getting theirs against second units. So, it's fair to expect them to take a divot against better defenders.
But it's not night and day. There is a definite correlation. A connection from high-usage, per-36-riffic production into late-season reality-based production.
I'll give you some snapshots. I've done some crunching and sorting. Focused on stats accrued over the last two weeks. Here are some examples of names the spreadsheets are spitting out.
Warning!: Per-36 numbers can provoke numerical heart palpitations. Just remember, these averages are extrapolations.
Davis Bertans, PF, Washington Wizards
Recent per-36 averages: 28.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.2 APG, 7.9 3PG, 1.7 SPG, 0.0 BPG
I shouldn't need to hype Bertans to you at this point. But I do owe you an explanation regarding his late-season situation.
He's coming off a calf injury. He's on a minutes restriction. He's locked into a passive-aggressive minutes battle with Rui Hachimura.
Bertans also had one heck of a contract hangover. Before All-Star weekend, Bertans posted an anemic 33.1 3FG% and a downright ugly 34.1 FG%. For a guy known as a shooter, those are the kinds of numbers that can give a manager night sweats.
But bit by bit, Bertans found his rhythm. His post-All-Star percentages: 48.3 3FG%, 48.9 FG%. But just when everything was clicking, his calf started barking. And while he was out, Hachimura started playing with a little more of that edge we've been waiting for.
The good news? Bertans has looked ferocious over his past three games. As good as he was at any point last season. And the Wizards are sorta obligated to give Bertans and Hachimura enough time to be fantasy relevant. But if injuries and/or load management should bump Bertans' minutes to the 25 MPG threshold, he could do damage in the fantasy playoffs.
Bonus Wizard: Daniel Gafford
I told you Gafford was a perfect fit for what the Wizards craved in the post. Before he turned his right ankle, Gafford was fantastic. The Wizards will want to see what they've got in Gafford down the stretch. He'll be back soon. In the race for ping-pong balls, Gafford is primed for an endgame rampage.
Malik Monk, SG, Charlotte Hornets
Recent per-36 averages: 32.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 6.1 3PG, 1.5 SPG, 0.8 BPG
If you have an IR spot open. Or a bench slot you're neglecting. Do yourself a favor and see if Monk is sitting on your wire. He'll be back in a week or so. And with LaMelo Ball out for the duration, as soon as this "restricted free agent to be" is ambulatory, he will be playing with a perpetual green light.
If you're like me, this is the Malik Monk we've been waiting for. Monk's fantasy potential is measured by the ton. It's just been a question of translating all that potential into kinetic numbers. The Hornets' crowded backcourt hasn't helped.
But Monk's efficiency has quietly climbed all season. He has been more consistent. At present, he's posting an easy career-best 59.8 TS%. And with Ball out, Monk will be a prime mover in Charlotte's three-guard rotation -- as soon as he gets back.
As you know, there's nothing like impending free agency as fantasy motivation. The playoff-scrapping Hornets need Monk's offense. The only impediment between Monk and 10-team league relevance? That right foot. But there are just too many dynamics pushing Monk. He will be back, and scary productive, before the end of the season.
Goga Bitadze, C, Indiana Pacers
Recent per-36 averages: 21.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.8 3PG, 0.7 SPG, 2.9 BPG
Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are nursing bum ankles. The Pacers appear to be headed for the play-in tournament. As that outcome becomes less possibility and more probability, starters will get extended, planned rest. And bench players like Bitadze will get extended chances to play their way into larger rotational roles.
And don't forget: Indiana's offense is built for multifaceted, multi-categorical center play. Bitadze got a rare start last night and provided a fair facsimile of Sabonis cosplay: 14 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 3-pointers, a steal and a block. All in only 25 minutes.
Would I call Bitadze a must-add in medium-sized leagues? Yes. This is a prime example of potential meeting opportunity.
Sabonis and Turner are going to get more rest down the stretch. Bitadze is looking more as originally advertised: a skilled big who can fill up a box score from various angles. And he won't require heavy minutes to prove he belongs on someone's fantasy bench. A steady diet 22-26 MPG is all Bitadze will require.
Bitadze is precisely the kind of player who can translate per-36 dreams into meaningful fantasy reality.