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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-250 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
The week ahead
There are no games on December 24 for Christmas Eve, making this a generally lighter week. There are 18 teams playing three games and four playing only two. Only eight teams play four games, but that means that the players on those teams have the chance to accumulate big numbers. As one might expect, all five of the teams with high Forecaster scores play four games while all four of the teams with only two games have low scores.
The Warriors earned a perfect 10 with four home games against friendly defenses, starting with the Timberwolves and Rockets. The Nuggets earned a 9 with three of their four games at home, featuring a great matchup against the Pelicans on Christmas day. The Rockets, Pelicans and Kings all turned their four-game schedules into Forecaster Scores of 8.
At the other end of the Spectrum, the Hornets and Bulls earned 1s, the Nets earned a 2 and the Clippers earned a 3 on the Forecaster with two games each. The Heat and Suns both earned 3s with their three game weeks, with the Heat facing three strong defenses and the Suns featuring a road back-to-back.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.
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Forecaster matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.