Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Tight end adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for tight ends:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Tight Ends (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Trey McBride , ARI 233 235 2 13 86 937 9 2. Jake Ferguson , DAL 165 171 5 13 64 603 7 3. Tyler Warren , IND 153 161 7 13 56 561 5 4. Dalton Schultz , HOU 141 125 -16 13 61 606 3 5. Brock Bowers , LV 141 153 12 10 49 555 6 6. Travis Kelce , KC 139 165 26 13 58 595 3 7. Harold Fannin Jr. , CLE 135 144 9 13 59 603 2 8. Kyle Pitts , ATL 132 131 -1 13 60 620 2 9. Juwan Johnson , NO 128 135 7 13 56 577 2 10. Hunter Henry , NE 128 136 8 13 43 526 5 11. Zach Ertz , WAS 123 126 3 13 48 572 3 12. Mark Andrews , BAL 122 113 -9 13 38 407 5 13. Theo Johnson , NYG 117 118 0 13 40 522 4 14. Dallas Goedert , PHI 109 138 29 12 45 495 3 15. Mason Taylor , NYJ 102 89 -13 13 45 471 2 16. T.J. Hockenson , MIN 100 101 1 13 45 397 3 17. Cade Otton , TB 100 89 -11 13 49 444 1 18. Oronde Gadsden II , LAC 100 103 3 11 36 429 3 19. AJ Barner , SEA 96 110 14 13 37 329 3 20. Evan Engram , DEN 92 81 -11 12 45 370 2 21. Colston Loveland , CHI 87 103 16 12 34 370 3 22. Chigoziem Okonkwo , TEN 81 84 3 13 39 389 1 23. George Kittle , SF 81 106 26 8 31 322 3 24. Dalton Kincaid , BUF 78 112 34 9 28 338 3 25. Gunnar Helm , TEN 77 73 -4 13 31 318 2 26. Jonnu Smith , PIT 77 63 -14 13 34 312 2 27. Sam LaPorta , DET 74 107 33 9 33 341 1 28. David Njoku , CLE 74 86 13 12 29 317 2 29. Tucker Kraft , GB 72 117 45 8 31 296 2 30. Cole Kmet , CHI 66 61 -4 12 23 296 2 31. Brenton Strange , JAC 64 74 10 8 28 288 1 32. Jake Tonges , SF 63 73 10 13 26 234 2 33. Noah Fant , CIN 62 75 13 12 29 241 2 34. Dawson Knox , BUF 61 65 4 13 26 265 1 35. Colby Parkinson , LAR 58 70 12 11 23 183 3 36. Mike Gesicki , CIN 58 46 -12 9 18 242 3 37. Darnell Washington , PIT 58 60 2 13 23 229 2 38. Pat Freiermuth , PIT 57 83 26 13 24 235 2 39. Isaiah Likely , BAL 56 51 -6 10 23 231 2 40. Ja'Tavion Sanders , CAR 53 43 -11 10 24 206 2 41. Michael Mayer , LV 51 46 -5 9 24 202 1 42. Tyler Higbee , LAR 50 51 1 9 21 198 2 43. Noah Gray , KC 48 32 -17 12 21 220 1 44. Taysom Hill , NO 46 20 -26 9 5 40 0 45. Tommy Tremble , CAR 43 45 2 13 20 165 1 46. Darren Waller , MIA 43 55 12 6 12 159 2 47. Davis Allen , LAR 42 53 11 13 17 143 2 48. Elijah Arroyo , SEA 42 37 -5 13 15 195 1 49. Terrance Ferguson , LAR 37 25 -12 11 6 169 2 50. Daniel Bellinger , NYG 37 38 2 12 12 152 2 51. Brock Wright , DET 34 37 2 11 18 124 1 52. Mitchell Evans , CAR 34 40 6 13 14 115 1 53. Luke Musgrave , GB 33 33 0 13 16 165 0 54. Austin Hooper , NE 33 43 11 12 13 151 1 55. Elijah Higgins , ARI 32 35 2 13 17 134 0 56. Jackson Hawes , BUF 32 45 13 13 11 120 1 57. Jeremy Ruckert , NYJ 32 39 7 13 16 129 1 58. Tanner Hudson , CIN 31 37 5 11 11 105 2 59. Hunter Long , JAC 31 33 1 9 13 103 1 60. Adam Trautman , DEN 31 38 7 13 15 121 1 61. Greg Dulcich , MIA 29 28 0 6 14 116 1 62. Luke Schoonmaker , DAL 28 18 -11 13 11 140 1 63. Tanner Conner , MIA 24 18 -6 9 9 114 1 64. Johnny Mundt , JAC 24 18 -7 12 13 108 0 65. Josh Oliver , MIN 24 42 18 11 9 73 1 66. Luke Farrell , SF 24 30 6 13 11 84 1 67. Julian Hill , MIA 24 22 -2 10 12 91 0 68. Charlie Kolar , BAL 24 33 10 13 9 100 1 69. Ian Thomas , LV 23 24 1 13 11 92 0 70. Nate Adkins , DEN 22 17 -5 6 8 66 1 71. John FitzPatrick , GB 20 20 1 13 9 57 1 72. Drew Sample , CIN 19 17 -2 13 9 69 0 73. John Bates , WAS 18 15 -3 11 9 72 0 74. Mo Alie-Cox , IND 18 11 -7 13 8 78 0 75. Tyler Conklin , LAC 15 16 1 12 7 71 0 76. Brevyn Spann-Ford , DAL 14 15 1 13 5 49 1 77. Jack Stoll , NO 13 14 0 12 6 51 0 78. Foster Moreau , NO 13 11 -2 9 7 53 0 79. Cade Stover , HOU 13 10 -3 5 6 45 0 80. Grant Calcaterra , PHI 13 10 -3 11 6 63 0 81. Quintin Morris , JAC 12 5 -8 10 4 52 1 82. Connor Heyward , PIT 12 11 -1 13 2 23 1 83. Ross Dwelley , DET 11 3 -8 11 2 25 1 84. Albert Okwuegbunam , LV 10 9 -2 1 4 38 0 85. Josh Whyle , GB 9 11 2 5 3 31 1 86. Will Dissly , LAC 9 9 1 5 5 38 0 87. Andrew Ogletree , IND 8 11 2 13 3 26 1 88. Charlie Woerner , ATL 8 8 0 13 4 34 0 89. Harrison Bryant , HOU 8 3 -5 8 3 37 0 90. Ben Sinnott , WAS 8 14 6 12 3 23 0 91. Durham Smythe , CHI 7 4 -3 13 3 36 0 92. Zaire Mitchell-Paden , BAL 5 1 -4 6 1 11 0 92. Zaire Mitchell-Paden , NO 2 2 1 2 1 8 0 93. Tip Reiman , ARI 7 5 -2 4 3 33 0 94. Kylen Granson , PHI 6 4 -2 13 3 31 0 95. Blake Whiteheart , CLE 6 2 -4 13 3 33 0 96. Lucas Krull , DEN 6 4 -2 3 3 27 0 97. Tucker Fisk , LAC 5 4 -2 10 3 26 0 98. David Martin-Robinson , TEN 5 9 3 13 1 10 0 99. James Mitchell , CAR 5 6 1 4 3 19 0 100. Colson Yankoff , WAS 4 4 -1 11 2 22 0 101. Payne Durham , TB 4 2 -2 13 3 17 0 102. Nick Kallerup , SEA 4 0 -4 6 0 7 0 103. Anthony Firkser , DET 3 3 0 3 2 12 0 104. Brenden Bates , CLE 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 104. Brenden Bates , HOU 3 4 1 3 1 17 0 105. Ben Yurosek , MIN 3 2 -1 8 2 12 0 106. Josiah Deguara , ARI 3 2 -1 8 1 13 0 107. Eric Saubert , SEA 3 2 0 7 1 7 0 108. Stone Smartt , NYJ 2 0 -2 11 1 9 0 109. Cam Grandy , CIN 2 2 0 3 1 6 0
