Fantasy football insights with Watson for Week 6

For those that are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location in order to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.

IBM Insights uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions. Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player, as well as projecting the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g. "boom") or fall short of the low end estimate (e.g. "bust") on any given week.

The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 6 of the 2019 NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.

Running back decisions

Running backs are potentially some of the top producers in fantasy football, but they are also often the scarcest commodity because there are so few "No. 1" backs these days. As such, there is usually a very clear hierarchy at the top with a handful of ultra-elite backs that are definite starts every week. However, it can be difficult to decide between backs of similar caliber. In those cases, anticipated playing time and matchup can be key differentiators.

The following analysis was performed on every running back that are expected to play this week (and that did not already play on Thursday), based upon IBM Insight projections for the week.

Projections higher than rank

Damian Williams, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

• Weekly rank 75, 27th among RBs

• High projection: 22.7 fantasy points

• Low projection: 7.3 fantasy points

• Boom chance: 0.06

• Bust chance: 0.19

In what it is being billed as a battle between two top quarterbacks, it is interesting that Insights has identified running backs from both teams as potentially undervalued assets. Williams returned last week with a quiet performance after a two-week injury absence, and this week has a chance to make some noise in the passing game against a Chiefs defense that has allowed an average of 5.8 receptions for 57.6 yards per game to the top receiving back on opposing teams this season.

Watson's Insight: Insights identifies Williams as a potential RB2 this week against a Texans defense that has shown a weakness to defending pass-catching running backs this season.

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins

• Weekly rank 127, 38th among RBs

• High projection: 17.8 fantasy points

• Low projection: 5.6 fantasy points

• Boom chance: 0.07

• Bust chance: 0.18

Coming off their bye week, the winless Dolphins may have their best chance at earning a victory this season playing at home against an equally winless Redskins squad that is struggling through coaching and quarterback changes. As such, Drake could end up getting the most action that he's seen this season as the team is usually playing from way behind. The Redskins have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Watson's Insight: Insights identifies Drake as a potential flex play this week as the Dolphins face a weak run defense and have a legitimate chance to win their first game.

Most likely to go boom/least likely to bust

Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

• Weekly rank 89, 29th among RBs

• High projection: 14.5 fantasy points

• Low projection: 4.7 fantasy points

• Boom chance: 0.24

• Bust chance: 0.16

Howard has quietly emerged as the lead back from the Eagles' running back committee, notching 209 yards and five touchdowns during the past three games. The Vikings have a stout defense, but Eagles coach Doug Pederson indicated on Monday that he expects Howard to trend toward more carries moving forward and, as the goal-line back, Howard is always a threat to score a touchdown.

Watson's Insight: Insight identifies Howard as an emerging play with a good chance to outperform expectation this week, even against a tough Vikings defense.

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

• Weekly rank 133, 40th among eligible RBs

• High projection: 10.2 fantasy points

• Low projection: 2.5 fantasy points

• Boom chance: 0.25

• Bust chance: 0.10

Johnson and teammate Carlos Hyde (weekly rank 131, 39th among running backs) join Williams as backs that Insights has identified as potential threats this week in what many expect to be a track meet game. Johnson is the receiving back so could obviously get work, and last week the Colts showed a blueprint for beating the Chiefs by relying on strong contributions from the backfield. The Chiefs rank 22nd in defending opposing running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to the position.

Watson's Insight: Insights identifies both Johnson and teammate Carlos Hyde as solid threats to outperform expectation this week against a relatively weak Chiefs defense against opposing running backs.

Insights provided by IBM Watson in partnership with ESPN