Rumours rated: Paul Pogba to Man United, Gonzalo Higuain to Juventus

There's a lot of talk and speculation, but when it comes to transfers, how do you separate fact from fiction? David Amoyal looks at some of the current rumours and predicts how likely the proposed moves are to actually happening.

Mario Gotze to Borussia Dortmund: 80 percent

After losing some significant players (Mats Hummels, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Ilkay Gundogan) in the early stages of the summer transfer window, Borussia Dortmund are ready to reinvest the proceeds. Mario Gotze is set to join Tuchel's squad after struggling to establish himself at Bayern Munich; the deal is expected to be completed for around €30 million, considerably more than the amortized value of the player on Bayern's books.

Gotze wanted to stay in Germany, as demonstrated by fact he turned down lucrative offers from Juventus last year and more recently from Liverpool. As it stands, he's set to get his wish by returning to his former club.

Paul Pogba to Manchester United: 60 percent

Last week, we had this potential move at 30 percent, but since then, Manchester United has taken more concrete steps. As Gianluca Di Marzio reported on Tuesday, the club have met with Juventus, along with Pogba's agent, Mino Raiola, to make their initial offer.

Manchester United has already offered to almost triple Pogba's current wages; at this point, it's likely a matter of agreeing to a transfer fee, as Juve's stance is always to accommodate players who want to leave. United will likely break the transfer fee record to bring back Pogba to Old Trafford.

Gonzalo Higuain to Juventus: 25 percent

The recent development with Pogba has given new life to Juve's pursuit of Higuain. On Monday, Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis stated that he would not negotiate with the Bianconeri and that the only way to sign Higuain is to pay the full €94m exit clause -- more than double Juve's biggest purchase of the past 10 years. But the injection of cash from a potential deal for Pogba could give Juventus the ammunition needed to sign Higuain, unless of course they decide to reinvest at other positions.

Higuain has already given his approval to join Juventus, a fact that could make it difficult for him to return to Napoli. Arsenal is also in the mix for the Argentine's services.

Mauro Icardi to Arsenal: 20 percent

Not many 23-year-old strikers with over 50 career goals in a league as competitive as Serie A are on the market, so not surprising the number of suitors for Icardi is increasing. Atletico Madrid has been monitoring him for over a year, Tottenham made an inquiry a few weeks ago, and now Arsenal is talking to his agent.

Inter would like to keep their captain, especially after giving him a substantial raise last summer, so it would take Icardi to push for a move after he receives an offer for substantially more than his current salary (around €4m net per season). The likeliest scenario is that Icardi's agent negotiates a new deal with his current club, unless Inter feels confident they can land Gabriel Jesus in January.

Kostas Manolas to Chelsea: 15 percent

There has been a lot of speculation surrounding Manolas' future after Roma signed Juan Jesus and contacted Real Madrid about Nacho Fernandez. But the Italian club also needs to replace Leandro Castan, who went on loan to Sampdoria, and Antonio Rudiger, who tore his ACL in May.

Before that injury, Manolas' agent had met with Chelsea and Manchester United. Since then, Roma also received around €30m euro from Juventus for Miralem Pjanic, so they have less of a need to sell. In addition, there is a clause in Manolas' contract that would give his former club Olympiakos half of his transfer fee, as opposed to just €6m, if he's sold before September of this year.

Diego Costa to Atletico Madrid: 30 percent

Diego Simeone has identified Diego Costa as his top target to partner with Antoine Griezmann at the Calderon next season. Colchoneros club president Enrique Cerezo, who is known for being rather truthful when discussing transfers, has confirmed talks to bring Costa back to Madrid, but it won't be easy since Chelsea's new manager, Antonio Conte, likes to start two strikers and is known to rotate his attackers since he demands a strong work rate.

Chelsea would have to feel confident they can sign at least another top striker to go with former Marseille forward Michy Batshuayi to replace Costa. So far, the Blues have been linked to Everton's Romelu Lukaku and Real Madrid's Alvaro Morata, a player Conte recruited before leaving Juventus.

James Rodriguez to West Ham: 5 percent

It's no secret that there have been issues for James Rodriguez at Real Madrid and that this could be the right time to leave. The Hammers now have the resources needed to make very important signings, although it is difficult to envision James play at the Olympic Stadium next year. The lack of Champions League football and the competition in England will prove far too problematic.

Jackson Martinez to Porto: 25 percent

It is rumored that Porto is willing to put forth a €30m shock offer in order to bring back Jackson Martinez to Portugal. The player has let his current club know of his desire to return to Europe, but it remains to be seen whether the Chinese club Guangzhou Evergrande, who bought him for €42m last January, will be willing to accept a lower offer.

Gabriel Jesus to Real Madrid: 30 percent

It's very hard to say with certainty where Gabriel Jesus will go next after Palmeiras, due to contrasting reports all over the world. Three clubs are widely considered to be in the race: Real Madrid, Barcelona and Inter. Different reports claim that Real Madrid could actually be the closest to signing the young Brazilian, with an offer of €24m for the player and €10m in commission.

Another aspect that could be advantageous to Los Blancos would be the availability to leave the young striker at Palmeiras until December 2017. This particular race is unpredictable, with Inter a sneaky outside bet if they do indeed sell Icardi.

Andre Gomes to Real Madrid: 40 percent

Andre Gomes has been identified as the key man who would offer an alternative in Real Madrid's midfield. Marca reported that Real are ready to make an offer for the player, although it will more than likely not meet Valencia's €65m valuation, having already turned down offers of €40m.

With Manchester United intensifying their pursuit of Pogba, there could be a domino effect of Juventus increasing their bid for Gomes, a player they were interested in before signing Pjanic.