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Sadio Mane and the curse of Africa's Footballer of the Year

Sadio Mane AP Photo/Riccardo De Luca

Maybe the World Cup build-up wouldn't truly be the World Cup build-up without a 'will he, won't he' injury saga regarding one of the planet's biggest stars.

In 2002, it was David Beckham and his second metatarsal, and in 2010 it was Didier Drogba and his broken elbow shoulder. Radamel Falcao and his left knee dominated pre-tournament build-up in 2014, and in 2018 it was Mohamed Salah and his dislocated shoulder.

This year, it threatened to be Sadio Mane and his right fibula, and, for about a week, it was, as Senegal -- and the watching world -- awaited further clarity and precision on the injury sustained by the superstar forward in Bayern Munich's 6-1 victory over Werder Bremen last week.

On Thursday came the crushing news -- delivered by Senegal team doctor Manuel Afonso -- that following a further MRI scan, it had been determined that Mane must undergo surgery and would play no part in the World Cup.

It was crushing news for the player, for Senegal, and for a broader African continent, for whom the Africa Cup of Nations holders this year had arguably represented a golden opportunity to break the glass ceiling and reach an unprecedented semifinal.

That single injury against Bremen, an innocuous tangle with Amos Pieper, could have transformative effects for Mane's legacy as one of Africa's greatest players ever, and certainly for Africa's prospects of reaching the final four of the tournament.

Once again, Africa's reigning Footballer of the Year has been denied a run at the tournament, and indeed, perhaps never before have an African team and player enjoyed such excellent conditions to make a major impact on the World Cup.

This is a settled squad, overseen by Aliou Cisse since 2015, and they're not affected by the last-minute managerial changes or inappropriate coaching reshuffles that undermined previous African contenders such as Nigeria in 1998 or the Ivory Coast's Golden Generation on several occasions.

Cisse has imbued the squad with unity, with personality, and with an appreciated and recognised style of play; everyone knows their roles, everyone understands the brief, and everyone is willing to sacrifice themselves for the collective.

The ease at which new arrivals integrate into the fold is testament to the ethos that Cisse has established within the camp, and Senegal boast the kind of organised, controversy-free structure that African selections haven't always enjoyed when approaching the tournament.

A strong defence is nearly always a critical component required for a deep run in the World Cup, and Senegal certainly have this -- with a workaholic and combative midfield protecting a stout defensive unit that contains Edouard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly.

Both may have had their troubles at Chelsea in recent months, but they're arguably the best in their position in Africa, considered world class by some, and -- at 30 and 31 respectively -- are in their prime.

Senegal conceded just twice en route to the Nations Cup title earlier this year, went 206 minutes without conceding in the playoff against Mohamed Salah's Egypt, and that backline has only been upgraded since then with the addition of Fode Ballo-Toure and the return of Youssouf Sabaly.

As well as being, in general, an experienced squad, with players who know what it's like to compete in a World Cup, in Europe's major leagues, in title races, in the Champions League, Senegal's AFCON success also imbued within this squad the muscle memory of negotiating knockout ties and of winning a major international tournament.

How many of the teams bound for Qatar can say that?

The group-stage draw also worked massively in Senegal's favour, fuelling belief that the Teranga Lions could replicate the achievements of their 2002 Golden Generation and return to the knockouts.

In Qatar, hosts but making their debut at the tournament, they faced comfortably the most straightforward of the seeded sides, opening the door to the teams from Pot Three -- of which Senegal were the highest ranked -- to muscle their way into the latter stages.

Qatar will enjoy home support, of course, but with that comes pressure, and as one of only two teams outside the FIFA top 50 when the draw was made, it would require major overachievement for them to reach the latter stages.

This comes in stark contrast to the likes of Ivory Coast in 2006 and 2010, Nigeria in 2002 or Morocco in 2018, where a fine team with great expectations was squeezed out in the opening round of the tournament after being drawn into the 'Group of Death'.

A similar case could be made for Cameroon in 2002 or even Ghana in 2014.

The 2002 side also thrived in the warmer conditions in Japan and South Korea, and they too -- perhaps unlike some of their potential European rivals - are unlikely to be fazed by the conditions on the Arabian Peninsular in November.

Finally, the single major factor that gave Senegal genuine belief that they could not only escape the group and match the feat of Cisse's 2002 generation - who defeated Sweden in the knockouts before falling to Turkey in the quarters -- but even go deeper in the tournament, was Mane.

One month ago, almost to the day, Mane finished second in the Ballon d'Or voting to crown the world's best player.

It was the best African performance in the Ballon d'Or since George Weah won it in 1995, and never before has an African player headed into the World Cup on the back of such a high placement in the ranking of the world's finest.

Mane would have also entered Qatar as the reigning African Footballer of the Year, and as a reigning AFCON winner.

This would have an utterly unique set of circumstances.

Only three times before in history have the reigning African champions gone on to represent the continent at the World Cup immediately following their continental triumph -- Nigeria in '94 and '14, and Cameroon in '02.

On only one of those occasions -- Nigeria in '94 -- did the reigning African champions have the reigning African Footballer of the Year in their ranks.

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Even then, Rashidi Yekini had 'only' won the nascent CAF African Footballer of the Year award, and not the more prestigious predecessor the France Football Player of the Year, which had instead been won by Abedi Pele, whose Ghana side did not qualify.

Yekini's performance in 1994 has gone down in legend, as he scored the Super Eagles' first ever World Cup goal, and famously gripped the Dallas net in furious celebration.

It is the defining moment of the Bull of Kaduna, of that Eagles Golden Generation and indeed, of Nigerian football on the grandest stage.

However, his standing in '94 compared to Mane in '22 is very different; Yekini, for example, didn't even make the Ballon d'Or shortlist in the year of his APOTY success.

The Teranga Lions now, unlike the Super Eagles then, actually had previous experience of World Cup finals - both via coach Cisse, a veteran of 2002, and via the remnants of the squad who fell at the first hurdle in Russia.

In this historical context, the stars had aligned for Mane and Senegal to make an impact in Qatar in a way that has never before been the case for one of Africa's all-time greats.

That all ended against Bremen, as Mane became the latest African superstar to have his shot at immortality on the grandest stage snatched away from him by circumstances.

Since the African Footballer of the Year was first awarded in 1970, the continent's reigning Footballer of the Year has gone on to qualify for the tournament on 11 occasions.

Only George Weah (1990), Abedi Pele (1994) and Samuel Eto'o (2006) missed out on qualification, although of the 10 players who did qualify for the tournament after winning the AFOTY, few have made a glowing impact.

Of the six winners this century, El-Hadji Diouf enjoyed his finest hour at the 2002 tournament -- inspiring Senegal to the World Cup's greatest giant killing as they progressed to the quarters -- while Yaya Toure was named Man of the Match in the Ivory Coast's opener in 2014, but could not prevent a First Round exit.

Eto'o missed out in '06, while Didier Drogba and Mohamed Salah were injured ahead of the 2010 and 2018 tournaments respectively. Both were rushed back to contention, but neither were at their best and both fell at the first hurdle.

Michael Essien and John Obi Mikel are others who were also denied the opportunity to truly influence a World Cup when at their peak due to injury.

It certainly affected their legacies, with none of the players in the conversation for Africa's greatest ever truly excelling in a World Cup.

None of Salah, Drogba or Eto'o ever reached the knockout stages; Weah, Abedi Pele or Mohamed Aboutrika never even qualified.

In Qatar, Mane could realistically have achieved what none of Africa's pantheon have ever achieved before -- to follow up an AFCON triumph and a CAF Footballer of the Year victory with a career-defining performance at the World Cup.