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England lost to Iceland. France drew with Canada. Germany drew with Ukraine and lost to Greece. Portugal lost to Croatia. Italy did the bare minimum against Turkey and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Euro 2024 starts on Friday, and a lot of the tournament's betting favorites didn't leave amazing last impressions on the way to Germany. If I'm being honest: It's a lot more fun that way. After a club season defined by dominance and relative predictability -- can you believe Real Madrid won the Champions League and LaLiga, Manchester City won the Premier League and PSG won Ligue 1? -- this tournament opens with a spectacular sense of uncertainty. The pressure is high, the underdog stories are legion, and, for at least a moment, the favorites don't really look like favorites. Let the roller coaster begin. You've done all of your tournament prep. You've read the big previews, you've checked the squad lists twice, you've checked on the young stars, you've taken your daily dose of England angst. Now let's touch on each team one last time and make our picks. A couple of notes: Odds below are derived from current ESPN BET odds. Statistical leaders below are the players who have generated the highest combined xG (shot value) and xPVA (the possession value added by pass completions) over the past year. We have dabbled with that combination before. It is an offense-friendly measure, but hey, scoring is important, right?
GROUP A (matchdays: June 14/15, 19 and 23) Germany
• FIFA ranking: 16th
• Odds (per ESPN BET): 68% first place, 15% second, 10% third, 8% fourth (93% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 8 games, 1.38 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Niclas Füllkrug (FW, Borussia Dortmund), Jamal Musiala (MF, Bayern Munich), Kai Havertz (FW, Arsenal), Ílkay Gündogan (MF, Barcelona), Leroy Sané (RW, Bayern Munich) It's difficult to leave a more confusing impression than Germany have in the past couple of years. Knocked out in the World Cup group stage because of basically 15 bad minutes against Japan, they slipped into a pretty deep existential funk, winning only three of 11 matches in 2023 and firing manager Hansi Flick. New manager Julian Nagelsmann brought midfield metronome Toni Kroos back into the fold, and they looked spectacular in defeating France and Netherlands in March friendlies. Then, they looked pretty average in drawing with Ukraine and barely beating Greece this month. The Euro 2024 hosts have massive creativity and playmaking potential with the young duo of Musiala and Florian Wirtz up front, and Nagelsmann seems to like the center-back pairing of Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rüdiger in the back. But there might not be a more vibes-based team in the field at the moment, and that's an incredible thing to say about a team that was so ruthlessly steady and reliable for so long in these tournaments.  Switzerland
• FIFA ranking: 19th
• Odds: 15% first place, 36% second, 28% third, 14% fourth (65% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 0.75 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Xherdan Shaqiri (RW, Chicago Fire), Ruben Vargas (RW, Augsburg), Zeki Amdouni (FW, Burnley), Remo Freuler (MF, Bologna), Granit Xhaka (MF, Bayer Leverkusen) Switzerland have maybe the best goalkeeper duo in the tournament in Borussia Dortmund's Gregor Kobel and Inter's Yann Sommer, and their defensive personnel -- Manchester City's Manuel Akanji, Borussia Monchengladbach's Nico Elvedi, pivot man Xhaka -- are super sturdy. But you probably need to score at some point, and Switzerland enters the Euros still painfully reliant on 30-somethings like Shaqiri, Freuler and Xhaka in the ball progression and creativity departments. Since November, they've played seven matches and scored more than one goal just once, in last week's friendly against Estonia. Maybe that was a confidence booster, but at first glance the Swiss side's fatal flaw seems pretty clear.  Hungary
• FIFA ranking: 26th
• Odds: 10% first place, 23% second, 32% third, 36% fourth (54% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 2.25 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Dominik Szoboszlai (LW, Liverpool), Roland Sallai (RW, Freiburg), Barnabás Varga (FW, Ferencvaros), Loïc Négo (MF, Le Havre), Zsolt Nagy (MF, Puskas Akademia) Since a 2-0 UEFA Nations League defeat to Italy in September 2022, Hungary have lost just once in 16 matches. Granted, that lone defeat was last week, to Ireland -- again, no one was allowed to enter this tournament with too much confidence -- but Hungary are in excellent form. Like Switzerland, they bring plenty of sturdy 30-somethings to the table (RB Leipzig goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi and defender Willi Orbán, Négo, Omonia's Ádám Lang), but they're also getting some magical play from Szoboszlai, who has scored five goals with two assists in his past seven national-team matches, and the midfield duo of Spezia's Ádám Nagy and Sunderland's Callum Styles is producing outstanding ball progression. They might be the most confident team in Group A.  Scotland
• FIFA ranking: 39th
• Odds: 8% first place, 21% second, 31% third, 41% fourth (52% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 6 games, 0.67 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): John McGinn (LW, Aston Villa), Scott McTominay (MF, Manchester United), Lawrence Shankland (FW, Hearts), Ryan Porteous (CB, Watford), Ryan Christie (LW, Bournemouth) Scotland are less confident. They qualified for the Euros for a second straight time thanks to five consecutive wins last spring and summer, but since September they've beaten only Gibraltar. Matches against England, Spain, France and Netherlands in that span produced losses by a combined 13-2. Veterans like McGinn, McTominay and full-back/captain Andy Robertson are obviously reliable, but their best attacking option lately has been Shankland, and no offense to him, but when your best attacker is a 28-year-old on Scotland's third-best team, you might struggle.
GROUP B (matchdays: June 15, 19/20 and 24) Spain
• FIFA ranking: eighth
• Odds: 50% first place, 30% second, 17% third, 4% fourth (91% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 5 games, 2.60 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Álvaro Morata (FW, Atletico Madrid), Mikel Oyarzabal (FW, Real Sociedad), Rodri (MF, Manchester City), Ferran Torres (FW, Barcelona), Joselu (FW, Real Madrid) One of the more delightful (and frustrating, depending on whom you root for) things about international soccer is that you can't plug holes in the transfer market. Spain have a collection of midfielders that would make any other country envious -- Rodri, Pedri (when healthy), Fabián Ruiz, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Gavi (when healthy), recent breakout star Aleix García (who didn't even land a spot on the Euros squad) -- and now, in Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, they've got a pair of the most thrilling 21-and-under (in Yamal's case, way under) wingers in world soccer. But manager Luis de la Fuente is still leaning on Al Nassr's Aymeric Laporte and Real Sociedad's Robin Le Normand in central defense, while full-backs Dani Carvajal (32) and Jesús Navas (38) have still logged major minutes over the past year. Oh yeah, and Atletico Madrid's Morata (31), Real Sociedad's Oyarzabal (27) and Real Madrid's Joselu (34) remain the only options at center forward. All three are good players, but none made the 2024 FC 100. It's an obvious deficiency, and there's no way to address it quickly. So Spain will continue trying to pass teams to death and maybe pass the ball into the net a couple of times per match. It might work!  Italy
• FIFA ranking: ninth
• Odds: 30% first place, 32% second, 24% third, 14% fourth (85% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 6 games, 1.33 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Davide Frattesi (MF, Inter Milan), Nicolò Barella (MF, Inter Milan), Giacomo Raspadori (FW, Napoli), Federico Chiesa (FW, Juventus), Gianluca Scamacca (FW, Atalanta) There was a time before the Bosman ruling (and club soccer's money explosion) when most of a country's national team members came from clubs within said country. Twenty of Argentina's 22 players on their 1978 World Cup-winning squad played in Argentina, and all 22 of Italy's players in 1982 were playing domestically. Even in 1994, with European soccer already branching out quite a bit, 11 Brazilians still played in Brazil. It's a bit of a delightful throwback, then, to see that 24 of the 26 Italian players selected by Luciano Spalletti for the Euros actually played in Italy last season, including five from champion Inter, four from Juventus, four from Roma and three from Napoli. Hey, don't mess with what's not broken: Serie A enjoyed a spectacular year in UEFA play, and Italy won Euro 2020 with 22 Serie A players.  Croatia
• FIFA ranking: 10th
• Odds: 16% first place, 31% second, 38% third, 14% fourth (71% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 1.75 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Andrej Kramaric (FW, Hoffenheim), Luka Modric (MF, Real Madrid), Ivan Perisic (LW, Hajduk Split), Mario Pasalic (RW, Atalanta), Bruno Petkovic (FW, Dinamo Zagreb) A country with a population the size of Berlin, Croatia have reached the semis of the past two World Cups and the knockout rounds of the past two Euros. They are the ultimate punch-above-your-weight-class team, and now they seem to be pulling off something that countries much bigger and more historically successful (see: Germany) haven't: smoothly replacing an ultra-successful older generation with a new one. Fourteen players have recorded at least 250 national-team minutes over the past year -- five are 26 or younger, and five are 31 or older. And as younger players such as Manchester City's Josko Gvardiol, Wolfsburg's Lovro Majer and Bayern's Josip Stanisic have slowly stolen minutes from stalwarts such as Modric, Domagoj Vida and Perisic, Croatia have lost only three of their past 27 matches. It's a damn magic act, so much so that sticking them in a group with Spain and Italy might end up worse for Spain and Italy than for them.  Albania
• FIFA ranking: 66th
• Odds: 4% first place, 7% second, 21% third, 68% fourth (24% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 3 games, 2.33 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Sokol Cikalleshi (FW, Konyaspor -- not included on Euro roster), Taulant Seferi (LW, Baniyas), Jasir Asani (RW, Gwangju), Nedim Bajrami (AM, Sassuolo), Mirland Daku (FW, Rubin Kazan) If you're one of those people bitter about expanded tournament fields and whatever dilution of the competition you think that creates, I feel sorry for you. An expanded field means we get more Albanias to learn about and celebrate. Then again, Albania didn't need an expanded field. They won their qualification group! They topped Czechia and Poland, and now they play in a major tournament for just the second time. Eight years ago, they reached the group stage of the Euros and even beat Romania to avoid finishing last in their group. If they top that this time around, it's a story we'll be telling for quite a while. To do so, they will have to top one of three giants to have any hope of knockout-round glory; that's a tall ask, but in Chelsea's Armando Broja, Inter's Kristjan Asllani, Brentford's Thomas Strakosha and Atalanta's Berat Djimsiti, there are some major-club players here.
GROUP C (matchdays: June 16, 20 and 25) England
• FIFA ranking: fourth
• Odds: 64% first place, 23% second, 10% third, 3% fourth (96% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 2.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Harry Kane (FW, Bayern Munich), Ollie Watkins (FW Aston Villa), Phil Foden (LW, Manchester City), Marcus Rashford (LW, Manchester United -- not included on Euro roster), Jude Bellingham (MF, Real Madrid) You can tell how strong a contender is by how detailed the worries are. For teams like Spain and Germany, the problems deal with poor balance: having an abundance in some positions and a lack in others. Those might not be fixable. But for England, it's things like "We might not have enough proper width on the left in attack" or "Harry Maguire's injury means their aerial presence isn't quite as strong," or "Our amazing, young Jude Bellingham doesn't fit perfectly with our amazing, young Phil Foden." That can be either fixed or worked around entirely. England's Friday loss to Iceland was almost a favor. It might have tamped expectations down a smidgen, even if it didn't do anything to England's status as the betting favorite. Until that, they had lost only one game since the end of the Qatar World Cup -- and it was to Brazil. Things were looking a little too favorable. If nothing else, Friday was a reminder that if you're a favorite, you don't always win. England's still either a or the favorite in Germany.  Denmark
• FIFA ranking: 21st
• Odds: 18% first place, 35% second, 30% third, 18% fourth (72% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 2 games, 1.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (MF, Tottenham Hotspur), Christian Eriksen (MF, Manchester United), Rasmus Hojlund (FW, Manchester United), Jonas Wind (FW, Wolfsburg), Joakim Maehle (DF, Wolfsburg) You have to like all-or-nothing underdogs, and Denmark don't waste our time: They either go nowhere or go all the way (or close to it). They won the Euros in 1992 as a late fill-in for Yugoslavia, and they've finished third twice since 1984, including just three years ago. But for every surge, there are a few disappearances. They pulled just one point from three matches in the 2022 World Cup, then lost to Kazakhstan and Northern Ireland in Euro 2024 qualification, narrowly winning a weak group. They haven't beaten anyone more impressive than Slovenia or Sweden since the World Cup. If form matters at all in Germany, Denmark's stay won't last long. Then again, the vast majority of this roster is made up of players in Europe's Big Five leagues. It's got high-upside youngsters (Hojlund, for instance) and proven veterans (Eriksen, Simon Kjaer, Hojbjerg) and no single, damning weakness. "Nothing" probably awaits, but "all" wouldn't be a total surprise.  Serbia
• FIFA ranking: 33rd
• Odds: 11% first place, 30% second, 33% third, 27% fourth (59% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 0.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Aleksandar Mitrovic (FW, Al Hilal), Dusan Tadic (RW, Fenerbahce), Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (MF, Al Hilal), Dusan Vlahovic (FW, Juventus), Strahinja Pavlovic (DF, RB Salzburg) Starting with 2006, when it was still Serbia & Montenegro, Serbia qualified for only four of 10 major tournaments and generated just seven points in 12 matches there. Is "due" a thing? Because it feels like Serbia is due. It's their turn. They've got high-level young talent such as Vlahovic, Pavlovic and Torino's Ivan Ilic, and veterans such as Fenerbahce's Tadic and Saudi transplants Milinkovic-Savic and Mitrovic, all of whom scored in last week's impressive 3-0 win over Sweden. Granted, that might have been their best win since beating Portugal in 2021, but for Serbia, the talent doesn't match the results. Maybe that will change at some point.  Slovenia
• FIFA ranking: 57th
• Odds: 8% first place, 12% second, 27% third, 52% fourth (39% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 2 games, 1.50 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Benjamin Sesko (FW, RB Leipzig), Andraz Sporar (FW, Panathinaikos), Adam Gnezda Cerin (MF, Panathinaikos), Jan Mlakar (MF, Pisa), Petar Stojanovic (MF, Sampdoria) Last we saw Slovenia in a major tournament, they were throwing a major kink in the United States' plans with a 2-2 draw in the 2010 World Cup. When they fell to England 1-0 five days later, it opened the door for Landon Donovan's famous last-minute goal against Algeria. This is the first big tournament they've qualified for since, and hey, if you're going to be a major underdog in a major tournament, you might as well be rock solid in the back, where Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak has been Slovenia's best player for quite a while, and the front, where 21-year old forward Sesko just enjoyed a breakout season with RB Leipzig. In between? There's not a whole lot to love. But "goalkeeper stands on his head, and exciting forward makes the absolute most of his rare opportunities" is a scenario that has produced underdog runs before, right?
GROUP D (matchdays: June 16/17, 21 and 25) France
• FIFA ranking: second
• Odds: 60% first place, 25% second, 10% third, 6% fourth (94% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 3 games, 1.50 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Kylian Mbappé (LW, Real Madrid), Antoine Griezmann (MF, Atletico Madrid), Marcus Thuram (FW, Inter Milan), Ousmane Dembélé (RW, PSG), Kingsley Coman (RW, Bayern Munich) France are No. 2 in the overall betting odds and No. 1 in the "surest thing in recent competitions" list, having reached the finals in three of the past four major tournaments. They're still capable of a relative dud -- Les Bleus lost in penalties to Switzerland in the Euro 2020 round of 16 -- but less capable of that than most, and their transition to a brilliant new generation is just about complete. Manager Didier Deschamps has played a huge rotation over the past year, with 17 guys playing at least 375 minutes for the national team. Thirteen of them are between 23 and 28, with only a few key outliers in talisman Griezmann (33), midfielder Eduardo Camavinga (21) and, of course, forward Olivier Giroud (37). Since the last World Cup, France have lost only to Germany (albeit twice). We know France at this point. We know Deschamps is going to frustrate us with conservative tactics, and we know those tactics are probably going to work.  Netherlands
• FIFA ranking: seventh
• Odds: 23% first place, 35% second, 27% third, 15% fourth (77% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 0.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Wout Weghorst (FW, Hoffenheim), Xavi Simons (CM, RB Leipzig), Cody Gakpo (FW, Liverpool), Donyell Malen (FW, Borussia Dortmund), Memphis Depay (FW, Atletico Madrid) Since appointing Ronald Koeman as Louis Van Gaal's successor in 2023, Netherlands have basically lost to every good team they've played and walloped all the mediocre or bad ones. In four friendlies this year, they've sandwiched a 2-1 loss to Germany around matching 4-0 wins against Scotland, Canada and Iceland. If they hope to buck this trend (in a good way), the recent friendly blowouts have shown the path. Against Iceland, 21-year old Simons scored the opening goal and stalwart center-back Virgil van Dijk scored on a set piece (and Nathan Aké nearly did the same). Against Canada, Bayer Leverkusen's Jeremie Frimpong had his best performance in a Netherlands shirt, creating a goal and an assist, and Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch was a ball progression champion in midfield. Simons, Frimpong and Gravenberch are among quite a few stars in the 21- to 24-year-old range. That might say great things about Dutch prospects at the 2026 World Cup, at least. We'll see what it means for the Euros.  Austria
• FIFA ranking: 25th
• Odds: 11% first place, 25% second, 36% third, 28% fourth (50% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 6 games, 1.83 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Christoph Baumgartner (CM, RB Leipzig), forward Michael Gregoritsch (FW, Freiburg), attacking midfielder Marcel Sabitzer (CM, Borussia Dortmund), Xaver Schlager (CM, RB Leipzig -- not included on roster), Patrick Wimmer (MF, Wolfsburg) It's hard to establish an identity with a national team, but in two years with Austria it feels as if Ralf Rangnick has done just that. The mercurial 65-year-old, one of the fathers of the modern gegenpressing style, recently turned down the Bayern job to see out his role with this team, and looking at the results it makes some sense. He has Austria creating tons of high turnovers and ball recoveries, and the personnel at his disposal -- youngsters such as midfielder RB Leipzig's Nicolas Seiwald and attacker Baumgartner, veterans such as Sabitzer and Gregoritsch, midfield wrecking ball Konrad Laimer -- fit his style awfully well, even if midfielder Schlager's recent ACL tear was horribly unfortunate timing. Austria probably don't have the defensive personnel to make a huge run, but they know what they want to do, have lost only to Belgium since the last World Cup, and are capable of impressive results such as the 6-1 friendly win over Turkey in March.  Poland
• FIFA ranking: 28th
• Odds: 7% first place, 14% second, 28% third, 51% fourth (48% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 5 games, 2.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Robert Lewandowski (FW, Barcelona), Przemyslaw Frankowski (MF, Lens), Nicola Zalewski (MF, Roma), Arkadiusz Milik (FW, Juventus -- not included on Euro roster), Jakub Kiwior (DF, Arsenal) Good enough to qualify, not good enough to do major damage. That's generally been the theme for Poland. They've qualified for six of the past eight major tournaments (including each of the past four), but they've reached the knockout rounds only twice, and have won a knockout-round game only once (they beat Switzerland in penalties in the round of 16 at Euro 2016). Their 2024 Euro squad features four 30-somethings with at least 80 career caps -- the most important of whom, Lewandowski, suffered an injury on Monday and will miss at least the first match -- but overachievement might require a breakout performance from a younger player or two. There are quite a few of them in the midfield, led by Fenerbahce's Sebastian Szymanski (25) and Roma's Zalewski (22), but who puts the ball in the net if Lewandowski is out?
GROUP E (matchdays: June 17, 21/22 and 26) Belgium
• FIFA ranking: third
• Odds: 60% first place, 22% second, 12% third, 6% fourth (94% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 2.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Romelu Lukaku (FW, Chelsea), Yannick Carrasco (MF, Al-Shabab), Jérémy Doku (FW, Manchester City), Leandro Trossard (CM, Arsenal), Loïs Openda (FW, RB Leipzig) It felt like Belgium's golden generation had gone out with a whimper when they bowed out in the group stage in Qatar. It was an unceremonious ending ... but it also wasn't really an ending at all. On Domenico Tedesco's 26-man Euro roster are nine players aged 30 and older, four with more than 100 caps. While younger players like Doku (22) and Openda (24) could be key to success in Germany, anything good Belgium do in attack over the next few weeks could still be because of old stalwarts Kevin De Bruyne (32) and Lukaku (31). The next generation of defensive personnel is still developing, and it's possible that 37-year-old center-back Jan Vertonghen still sees quite a few minutes. That appears to be the fatal flaw here. But Belgium's group is exceedingly manageable.  Ukraine
• FIFA ranking: 22nd
• Odds: 20% first place, 30% second, 26% third, 24% fourth (68% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 6 games, 0.67 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Mykhailo Mudryk (FW, Chelsea), Artem Dovbyk (FW, Girona), Viktor Tsyhankov (FW, Girona), Andriy Yarmolenko (MF, Dynamo Kyiv), Oleksandr Zinchenko (MF, Arsenal) More than two years into their war struggles with Russia, Ukraine somehow continue to do interesting things in the sports realm. They reached the Euro quarterfinals three years ago, and playoff wins over Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iceland in March earned them another spot in the Euro field, and if they make another run, it could be because of the Girona Connection. Dovbyk and Tsyhankov both played huge roles in Girona's breakout season in LaLiga, and they've led their country in scoring over the past year. In Ukraine's brightest moments, their reliability frees up the speedy Mudryk to focus more on progressing the ball into dangerous areas (his strength) and less on actual finishing (his weakness). It can work pretty nicely, especially with sturdy veterans like Zinchenko and goalkeeper Dovbyk reinforcing the team's spine. A lack of upside in the midfield could doom them, but the pieces do fit together pretty nicely.  Romania
• FIFA ranking: 46th
• Odds: 12% first place, 23% second, 31% third, 35% fourth (57% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 2 games, 2.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Nicolae Stanciu (MF, Damac), Denis Alibec (FW, Muaither), Valentin Mihaila (LW, Parma), Razvan Marin (MF, Empoli), Ianis Hagi (RW, Deportivo Alaves) It's been a long time coming for Romania. The country's golden generation -- Gheorghe Hagi, Gheorghe Popescu, Miodrag Belodedici, Florin Raducioiu -- led Romania to the World Cup knockout stages three straight times from 1990 to '98 while qualifying for two straight Euros (and reaching the quarterfinals in 2000), but they haven't qualified for a World Cup since, and while they've twice qualified for the Euros, they didn't win a match either time. They took full advantage of a weak qualification group this time around, however, rolling unbeaten past Switzerland and Israel, among others. They've got a sturdy spine with Tottenham Hotspur defender Radu Dragusin and captain Stanciu, and if Gheorge Hagi Academy graduates like Ianis Hagi and Marin can provide a bit of attacking upside, they could force their way into the knockout rounds.  Slovakia
• FIFA ranking: 48th
• Odds: 8% first place, 26% second, 31% third, 36% fourth (49% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 3 games, 0.00 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Dávid Hancko (DF, Feyenoord), Róbert Bozeník (FW, Boavista), Ondrej Duda (MF, Hellas Verona), Juraj Kucka (MF, Slovan Bratislava), Lukás Haraslín (LW, Sparta Prague) A Golden Generation it is not, but a lot of the bones of the 2016 Slovakia team that reached the knockout stages at Euro 2016 -- Peter Pekarík (37), Kucka (37), Milan Skriniar (29), Duda (29), Patrik Hrosovský (32), Norbert Gyömbér (31) -- are still logging quite a few minutes for the national team. Slovakia have proved more than capable of beating a lot of Europe's other middleweights, and they looked particularly good in a 4-0 win over Wales last weekend. But the last time they beat a team in the current Euro field was when they beat Poland ... at the last Euros. They suffered a pair of one-goal losses to Portugal last year and fell 2-0 to Austria in March. It appears they're just good enough to lose competitively. They'll need some breaks to do some damage.
GROUP F (matchdays: June 18, 22 and 26) Portugal
• FIFA ranking: sixth
• Odds: 62% first place, 25% second, 12% third, 2% fourth (95% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 1.50 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Bruno Fernandes (MF, Manchester United), Cristiano Ronaldo (FW, Al Nassr), Diogo Jota (FW, Liverpool), Bernardo Silva (MF, Manchester City), Gonçalo Ramos (FW, PSG) Argentina won the last World Cup by fitting Leo Messi with just the right supporting cast of energetic youngsters and proper role players. As much as Cristiano Ronaldo hates getting compared to Messi, he has to hope Portugal have found just the right Messi Recipe (Messipe?). As Ryan O'Hanlon recently noted, Ronaldo remains a dangerous goal scorer but does almost literally nothing else on the pitch, and he needs a team with lots of creative pieces to move the ball into position where he can do damage. But with Fernandes, Silva, Rafael Leão, João Félix, João Cancelo, Vitinha and Rúben Neves, Portugal might have the most creative players in the tournament. You can make the case that Portugal might benefit more from focusing on the broader skill set of Jota or Ramos in the middle of the attack, but Roberto Martinez seems bound and determined to win with Ronaldo. He has the personnel who could pull it off, even if meek recent losses to Croatia and Slovenia pointed to some defensive frailties.  Turkey
• FIFA ranking: 40th
• Odds: 18% first place, 33% second, 29% third, 19% fourth (71% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 6 games, 1.17 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Baris Alper Yilmaz (FW, Galatasaray), Kerem Aktürkoglu (LW, Galatasaray), Hakan Çalhanoglu (MF, Inter Milan), Yunus Akgün (RW, Leicester City), Yusuf Sari (RW, Adana Demirspor -- not included on Euro roster) Since a third-place finish at Euro 2008, Turkey haven't done much on the international stage. They haven't qualified for a World Cup since 2002, and six matches at Euro 2016 and 2020 produced just three combined points and three goals. But they find themselves in maybe the weakest group this year -- at least one team ranked outside of FIFA's current top 30 is guaranteed to advance from Group F -- and with a rather young squad overall, there is a major building opportunity here. Turkey boasts two of the most exciting youngsters in the tournament in 19-year-olds Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus), and both have scored outstanding goals for their national team despite limited playing time over the past year. They've also got a huge batch of 23- to 26-year-olds, like Benfica's Orkun Kökçü, coming into their own. Turkey could be set for some nice accomplishments in the future, but opportunity is presenting itself in the present.  Czechia
• FIFA ranking: 36th
• Odds: 14% first place, 29% second, 33% third, 24% fourth (64% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 0.75 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Tomás Soucek (MF, West Ham), Václav Cerný (RW, Wolfsburg), Lukás Provod (CM, Slavia Prague), Adam Hlozek (FW, Bayer Leverkusen), Jan Kuchta (FW, Sparta Prague) In Matthew Evans' "USA 94: The World Cup that Changed the Game," former U.S. national team star Marcelo Balboa talked about the team's humbling experience at the 1990 World Cup. "We were mainly a bunch of kids who had played at a youth World Cup going up against men," he said. "We had been told we would physically match any side but when we lined up against Czechoslovakia, who had a team made up of players all six foot plus, reality hit." Grown men. Czechia still have tons of them, from West Ham's 6-foot-3 Tomas Soucek to Bayer Leverkusen's 6-foot-3 Patrik Schick to Fiorentina's 6-foot-3 Antonín Barák. They physically overwhelmed lesser recent opponents like Malta (7-1), Moldova (3-0) and Montenegro (4-1), and while they strangely haven't qualified for a World Cup since 2006, they're constant pains at the Euros, where they've qualified for eight straight and have reached at least the quarterfinals four times in the past seven. They suffer from a dearth of creativity -- anything good in that regard is probably coming from Soucek or Wolfsburg's Cerny (who's 6 feet tall, naturally) -- but if you can't handle brute force, reality might hit.  Georgia
• FIFA ranking: 75th
• Odds: 5% first place, 13% second, 26% third, 56% fourth (35% to advance)
• Past 12 months vs. Euro 2024 teams: 4 games, 0.25 PPG Statistical leaders (past 12 months): Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (FW, Napoli), Georges Mikautadze (FW, Metz), Giorgi Chakvetadze (Watford), Budu Zivzivadze (FW, Karlsruher), Otar Kakabadze (DF, Cracovia) Nobody is more excited than Georgia about being at Euro 2024. It is their first major tournament, and what they might lack in depth of major league talent, they make up for it with sheer, devilish charm. With players like Kvaratskhelia, Chakvetadze, Kakabadze, Panetolikos' Levan Shengelia and crafty 36-year old captain Guram Kashia, they have all the creativity that Czechia lack (albeit without nearly as much physical strength). Georgia didn't beat anyone particularly good in their path to qualification, finishing well behind Spain, Scotland and Norway in their qualification group and snagging a spot in the final qualification playoff only because of C-level Nations League success. But once there, they handled Luxembourg at home, then outlasted Greece in penalties. Will their stay last long? Probably not. But they're going to try creative things, and their fans will love every minute of it.
PREDICTIONSNow that we've laid everything out, let's make some predictions. Group stagesGroup A: 1 Germany, 2 Hungary, 3 Switzerland, 4 Scotland
The best team (playing at home) wins the group, and the most in-form team nabs second. Group B: 1 Spain, 2 Croatia, 3 Italy, 4 Albania
The group of death will be a must-watch, both because of the quality of the matchups and, with the different number of places the third-place team could land (and the quality of that third-place team), because of the land mines it could place for one of the other first-place teams. Group C: 1 England, 2 Serbia, 3 Denmark, 4 Slovenia
The Nos. 2-4 teams here might be completely interchangeable, so I gave the edge to the one I claimed was due above. Group D: 1 France, 2 Austria, 3 Netherlands, 4 Poland
I really do think Austria have the potential to cause trouble for the group's two favorites, even though I'm taking no chances whatsoever with my first-place picks. Group E: 1 Romania, 2 Belgium, 3 Ukraine, 4 Slovakia
Belgium's underachievement in Qatar, combined with deficient defensive personnel (at a glance, anyway), could open a door here. I'm not sure Romania or Ukraine are sturdy enough to take advantage, but I had to take at least one risk here, right? Group F: 1 Portugal, 2 Czechia, 3 Turkey, 4 Georgia
With their combination of upside and frailty, Portugal are capable of anything from a title to a group stage exit. I don't trust anyone else in the group to take full advantage if they're wobbly, though. Third-place qualifiers: Italy, Netherlands, Ukraine, Turkey Knockout roundsRound of 16: Spain over Turkey, Germany over Serbia, Italy over Portugal (that's a big one!), Austria over Belgium (I like Austria too much, and it's going to backfire), Netherlands over Romania, France over Czechia, England over Ukraine, Croatia over Hungary Quarterfinals: Spain over Germany (a major hinge-point match), Austria over Italy (we're letting it ride on Ralf Rangnick!), France over Netherlands (Netherlands always lose to superior teams, right?), England over Croatia Semifinals: Spain over Austria (even with a lack of finishing magic, Spain overcome Rangnick magic), England over France (it's time) Final: England over Spain. Spain's finishing dries up, and ... it's coming home.
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