In a normal 21st century year, the churn rate for men's college basketball head coaching jobs in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC collectively should be about 14%. Yes, Jim Boeheim and Mike Krzyzewski will stay put forever and continue to make Tom Izzo look like a newcomer. Just the same, there will be, on average, 10 coaching changes at major-conference programs in any given year.
In fact, 10 was (barely) on the low side as recently as the 2019 hiring season. That was the year when Nate Oats (Alabama), Eric Musselman (Arkansas), Mark Fox (California), Juwan Howard (Michigan), Fred Hoiberg (Nebraska), Mike Anderson (St. John's), Buzz Williams (Texas A&M), Mick Cronin (UCLA), Jerry Stackhouse (Vanderbilt), Mike Young (Virginia Tech) and Kyle Smith (Washington State) all stepped into new jobs.
But 2020 was no average year. Instead of 14%, the churn rate after last season was 1% due in large part to the limitations caused by the coronavirus pandemic. So, how will that affect 2021?