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Hiring a new head coach is the weightiest, most scrutinized and least predictable factor in any college basketball program's success, men's or women's. Statistically speaking there's roughly a one-in-two chance that any such major-conference hiring will end with a firing. A significant number of athletic directors flip that momentous coin every spring. We thought it was high time to check in on how well these recent hires are doing. "Recent" will be defined here as those coaches who are now in their second seasons, having been hired during the carousel season of 2022. Why not look at brand-new rookie head coaches, you ask? That sample is a bit too small for our comfort in early December. Instead, we'll consider coaches with a full season already under their belts. Which hiring decisions already look pretty good? To address the question, we've split out second-season professionals into mid-major and major-conference categories (with one coach placed in a category of his own). Here are seven of the game's most promising second-year coaches: The mid-majors Chris Gerlufsen, San Francisco Dons
Amaze your friends: Gerlufsen shares a biographical feature with, of all people, Rick Pitino. Like the Hall of Fame coach at St. John's, the Dons' coach also served a stint as interim head coach at Hawai'i. Pitino did so at age 23 in 1976. Gerlufsen followed in those footsteps 43 years later (2019-20). After serving as an assistant to Eran Ganot in Honolulu, Gerlufsen took on the same role for the Dons with then-head coach Todd Golden in 2021-22. Considering he built a reputation as a forward-thinking assistant on offense, Gerlufsen the head coach looks like he might have one surprisingly stout defense this season. USF is forcing opponents to commit a good many turnovers, and even when they hold on to the ball, those same opponents are missing their 2s.
 Talvin Hester, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Bulldogs haven't played in the NCAA tournament since 1991, but try telling that to Division I's athletic directors. Each of Hester's two predecessors parlayed success at Louisiana Tech into new head-coaching gigs: Mike White was hired by Florida in 2015, and Eric Konkol took the reins at Tulsa in 2022. Now Hester appears to be returning the Bulldogs to that 1991 level of performance. Daniel Batcho made 16 starts at Texas Tech, and he has been excellent since transferring to Ruston prior to this season. Louisiana Tech could push Liberty for Conference USA's regular-season title.  Chris Markwood, Maine Black Bears
Our wall-to-wall coverage of University of Maine hoops continues! Last week, while ranking all 50 states and the District of Columbia in terms of March success, we happened to mention that the Black Bears have never played in the NCAA tournament. This particular bit of trivia is unlikely to change in 2024, but Markwood does have Maine poised for what could be the program's first .500-or-better record in America East play in 13 years. Given the Bears' recent history and particularly their five-year adjusted efficiency margin prior to Markwood's hiring, such an outcome would be little short of remarkable. The majors Sean Miller, Xavier Musketeers
No need to overthink this pick. Miller got results right away in 2022-23, taking Xavier to its first Sweet 16 in six years. Of course, this is the coach's second go-round with the Musketeers, having reached the second weekend twice in five seasons with this very program back in the aughts. Conversely, the beginning of this season has been more of a struggle for Miller. Jack Nunge turned down what would have been a seventh year of eligibility (yes, seventh) and now plays in Italy. Colby Jones declared for the draft with eligibility remaining last March and was selected in the second round. Jerome Hunter and Zach Freemantle have been sidelined by health issues and are yet to appear this season (though it appears Hunter could return to action soon). When given a full complement of healthy players, however, Miller has demonstrated he can get the job done.  Lamont Paris, South Carolina Gamecocks
Over the past half century, the South Carolina men's basketball program has given new meaning to the term "feast or famine." After reaching the 1973 Sweet 16, the Gamecocks recorded zero wins in the NCAA tournament across five decades -- except, that is, for four victories from 2017 alone. That was the year South Carolina went all the way to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed. Can Paris improve this feast-to-famine ratio? After a rocky 11-21 debut last season, early indications are indeed positive. Wofford transfer B.J. Mack has excelled alongside co-featured scorer Meechie Johnson. The perimeter-oriented Gamecocks spread the floor yet favor the same kind of deliberate pace Paris displayed in his previous stop at Chattanooga. South Carolina looks like a team that could set a new standard for consistent success in men's hoops in Columbia.  Jerome Tang, Kansas State Wildcats
Having required overtimes to secure wins at home against Oral Roberts and North Alabama, Kansas State does not currently look like a team about to make a repeat trip to the Elite Eight. Nor does the new and expanded Big 12 figure to be particularly kind to a Wildcats rotation that's attempting to replace the likes of Markquis Nowell and Keyonte Johnson. Be that as it may, Tang appears to have the program well positioned for the long haul. Even a potential "down" season in 2023-24 projects to be an improvement over and above what the program posted as recently as 2021-22 and, especially, 2020-21. Tang has been notably adept at navigating the transfer portal, not only landing Johnson last year but following it up this season with Arthur Kaluma and Tylor Perry. Who knows, if the Wildcats manage to hang on to the ball and hit some 3s, Tang's second season could yet hold surprises. A quite specific "replacing a legend" category  Jon Scheyer, Duke Blue Devils
When one is replacing the winningest men's Division I head coach of all time, the task at hand is not to "move the needle." It is instead to keep that incredible needle right where it is. Scheyer is off to a good start in that respect. Yes, the young Blue Devils are coming off road losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech. Nevertheless, the second-year head coach did win his first ACC tournament, and he already sports an undefeated record (2-0) against rival North Carolina. Scheyer is also achieving the same level of success as his illustrious predecessor on the recruiting trail. To this point, at least, it has been a smooth transition for Duke's first new head coach since 1980.
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