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Is your favorite team a potential 2024 World Series contender ... or is 2025 (or beyond) a more realistic target? One thing we were reminded of last season is that prognostications are all about expectation, not destiny. We divide the clubs into five tiers based on projections and probabilities. The higher the tier, the more likely a team is to find itself in the next Fall Classic. Last season, the eventual champion Texas Rangers landed in my preseason Tier 3; their World Series opponents, the Arizona Diamondbacks, were in Tier 4. This reflects the new reality in Major League Baseball, with its expanded postseason and more room for chaos. To paraphrase managers and executives around the game: "We just want to get into the tournament." With that in mind, let's see how teams stack up based on my most up-to-date simulations, run just before last Thursday's openers, and what the outcome of those simulations tells us about where each franchise is and where it might be going.
A note on methodology: Teams have been slotted into tiers according to their likelihood of being handed the Commissioner's Trophy after the last out of the World Series seven months from now. That likelihood is based on my final preseason forecast for each team, a projection for each club's win total built on a rating of the rosters, depth charts, strengths and weaknesses of the consensus projections for each team. That rating is then used in a run of 10,000 simulations of the 2024 schedule to estimate each team's chance to win it all. Teams are ranked by average simulation wins and are then placed into one of five tiers according to their playoff and championship probabilities. For the latter tiers, a rough ETA for their arrival as contenders has been added. Jump to a tier: Tier 1: Their time is now | Tier 2: Their time could be now
Tier 3: We're saying they have a chance | Tier 4: Wait 'til next year
Tier 5: Two years away ... at least  TIER 1: THEIR TIME IS NOWTeams in this group are the front-runners to land the top seed in their league and should be all-in trying to win the 2024 World Series.  Los Angeles DodgersWin average: 100
In the playoffs: 96.4%
Champions: 22.3% State of the franchise: It really hasn't changed. The Dodgers are almost always among the best on-paper clubs entering the season. They are postseason fixtures and heavy favorites to win the National League West. This year, the Dodgers have one of their strongest projection-based outlooks yet, not surprising for a team that swamped everyone else in offseason spending. But just as it is every year, so it is in 2024: This season is all about what happens after Game No. 162. Pivotal issue: The Dodgers don't just spend at the top of the roster. They address every stratum of the organization with a constant churn of moves and depth-building transactions. In theory, this should make them impermeable to unforeseen misfortune, but in baseball there is no such thing. And so even the Dodgers found themselves short in the rotation once the 2023 playoffs began. They appear to be strong in that department once again, especially as Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and other injury returnees are peppered back in. But finding a healthy, well-functioning rotation group by the time the next NLDS round gets underway is one of the most important objectives for the Dodgers during the new season.
 Atlanta BravesWin average: 99.7
In the playoffs: 96.3%
Champions: 21.7% State of the franchise: The Alex Anthopoulos Braves have reached a very similar stature to that of the John Schuerholz Braves. That is, they've become a cinch for the postseason, and they have the entire NL East in a headlock. But they are also similar in that they are still trying to convert all of that regular-season dominance into championship rings. The Braves won it all in 2021 but have also had a number of postseason disappointments. In this way, they mirror the Dodgers. That similarity extends to the near-term outlook as well as the recent past. The Braves and the Dodgers have uncommonly powerful preseason outlooks but even if both squads fulfill those expectations and become powerhouses in a tier all their own, only one of them can play in the next World Series. For both teams, there is no other objective. Pivotal issue: The Braves have a strong projection for a bullpen led by Raisel Iglesias. And let's face it, you don't end up with projections at the level of the Dodgers and Braves if you have roster holes. Nevertheless, as you flash forward to October, it's still the bullpen you zero in on for Atlanta. Iglesias is just the right combination of dominant and consistent, but the bridge between the rotation and him has to be sturdy once the most crucial games begin. There is no reason to think this is going to be a problem. But if a problem does emerge on this roster, it's that bridge area that seems the most susceptible. TIER 2: THEIR TIME COULD BE NOWTeams in this group don't project to land the top seed in their league but could easily end up in the top tier by season's end. They are all clearly in the win-now category.  Houston AstrosWin average: 97.1
In the playoffs: 91.9%
Champions: 14.3% State of the franchise: Teetering on the brink? Look, I think the Astros will be excellent again this season. If Houston is back in the ALCS for an eighth straight time, I will not be remotely surprised. If they win another World Series, it will be just another October. Nevertheless, it does seem like the Astros dynasty is showing cracks. One indicator is the nature of their acquisitions. The best teams get creative when it comes to solving roster problems. For years, the Astros have been at the vanguard of finding cost-efficient but effective solutions for their team, a process simplified by the steady supply of talent from the minors. The past couple of years, it seems like the Astros' solution to filling holes was to sign a shiny thing, landing big-name players with a fair amount of age-related downside. A five-year deal for Josh Hader? He's great, and he should be great this year. After that, well, he's a reliever. It's that kind of myopia that has me concerned about the Astros' long-term outlook. Pivotal issue: Depth is the concern. Adding Hader to the bullpen raises the ceiling there. But that splash was motivated by the quantity of departures among the setup staff. Jose Abreu's showing in 2023 wasn't horrible, but he's 37 and his performance in recent years has been a red flag. Jose Altuve is still great, but how long can he keep it up? To an extent, the same holds true for Alex Bregman. The 2024 Astros should be fine, but for the first time in a while, they are vulnerable to rosterwide decline.
 Baltimore OriolesWin average: 91.4
In the playoffs: 74.8%
Champions: 7.5% State of the franchise: The arrow is pointing up. During both of the past two years, the Orioles' results have reflected an organization ahead of schedule. The season the Orioles had in 2022 seems like the one they should have had in 2023. The season they had in 2023 should have been the upside for Baltimore's multiseason rebuild. But the win column is not always perfectly aligned with the true talent level of a club. For Baltimore, the fact that the team keeps outstripping its baseline talent is a great sign. That's going to be harder to do now that the Orioles' surfeit of high-upside talent is reaching the big leagues. We're already at the point where Baltimore's success isn't determined by what happens from late March to the end of September, but by what occurs after that. That's a good place to be. Pivotal issue: The Orioles need to add to the rotation. That's true even if Corbin Burnes keeps being Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez steps up a level and Kyle Bradish's injury problems prove to be temporary. This is more of an October issue, but it's even more true for Baltimore this season than last because of the injury in the bullpen suffered by Felix Bautista. The good news is that in terms of payroll flexibility and a depth of coveted prospects, the Orioles are as well positioned to add during the season as anyone.
 Arizona DiamondbacksWin average: 89.6
In the playoffs: 73.1%
Champions: 4.4% State of the franchise: The Diamondbacks emerged from a three-year rebuild last season, climbing over .500 despite being outscored and squeezing into the playoffs. Once the D-backs made the tournament, they just kept winning, ultimately falling two wins shy of the franchise's second championship. The postseason run might have exaggerated the actual level of improvement in last season's club, which would have been impressive even without the pennant. In turn, the October spree might heighten expectations entering 2024, but Arizona looks like a contender here to stay, at least for a few years. The Diamondbacks added key veterans all over the roster and have built a potentially powerful core rotation with the acquisitions of veteran lefties Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery. The fun is just getting started. Pivotal issue: The bullpen came together at just the right time in 2023, but such flashpoint success in this area is often fleeting. With closer Paul Sewald out to begin the season with an oblique issue, the Diamondbacks will be shuffling through late-inning options for a while, and it will be interesting to see what pecking order emerges. The additions to the rotation should eventually give Torey Lovullo the flexibility to work some of his younger starters, such as Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson, into combo-type roles that could come in handy in October. But Arizona has to get back there first.
 New York YankeesWin average: 88.8
In the playoffs: 63.6%
Champions: 4.5% State of the franchise: The Yankees' run of winning seasons reached 31 last year -- barely. But that's not the streak fans in the Bronx care about. More crucial are the World Series and pennant droughts that have reached 14 seasons. That matches the 14-season stretch between Yankees World Series appearances from 1982 to 1995. To find a longer drought than that, you have to go back to the days before Babe Ruth. So, yeah, followers of the game's most successful franchise are getting antsy. Pivotal issue: Health. The Yankees still project as a likely (but not surefire) playoff team, but a similar expectation for 2023 was kneecapped by player absences. That's been a chronic problem for the Yankees, especially when it comes to starting pitching. If the Yankees can keep their on-paper team on the field, they will contend. Obviously, hopes for doing that have already been impacted by Gerrit Cole's inflamed elbow.
 Philadelphia PhilliesWin average: 87.6
In the playoffs: 63.4%
Champions: 3.3% State of the franchise: The Phillies were a little better last season than they were in their pennant-winning 2022 campaign. That's a more impressive statement than it sounds given Bryce Harper's early-season absence and the full missed season by since-departed Rhys Hoskins. Ultimately, the Phillies proved to be a formidable postseason club once again, though they fell one game short of winning a second straight pennant. All indications are the Phillies are right at the same level once again, though in the division race that leaves them a tier below the Braves. But Philly has done just fine as a wild card over the past two years. Pivotal issue: Outfield defense has been the hot-button issue for the Phillies in recent years. Now the problem is more about the offensive production of the outfielders than the glovework. That's part of the fallout of Harper moving to first base, which in turn puts Kyle Schwarber into more of a full-time DH role. The defense on the grass is certainly better with Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache in the mix. But the Phils could use a big season from Nick Castellanos and perhaps a breakout at the plate from Marsh in order for this club to reach its ceiling.
 Tampa Bay RaysWin average: 86.6
In the playoffs: 53%
Champions: 3.4% State of the franchise: The Rays have won 95 of every 162 games they've played since the beginning of the 2018 season, a six-year run of success exceeded by only the Dodgers, Astros and Braves. The highest-ranked Opening Day payroll they had during that span was 25th, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. They've done this with almost constant roster turnover, with the first team in that winning span (the 90-72 Rays of 2018) entirely scattered to the various corners of the baseball world. This year, the Rays' Opening Day payroll is up to 24th, and expectations haven't changed. That is, everyone expects Tampa Bay to keep winning, even if so many aren't sure how the Rays keep doing it. Pivotal issue: A starting rotation of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Taj Bradley is top-notch and full of upside. Also, all five of those pitchers are on the IL as the season begins. The Rays scout, develop and acquire pitching as astutely as any team, but last year, the staff was in tatters by the time the playoffs arrived. In an AL landscape with a lot of quality teams, Tampa Bay needs rotation innings to get back to October. If the Rays manage that, the next step will be to actually score runs in the postseason, which hasn't happened the past two years, with just two runs over four wild-card games.
 Texas RangersWin average: 86.2
In the playoffs: 50%
Champions: 2% State of the franchise: The Rangers are riding a wave of sudden success fresh off the franchise's first championship. Texas' season was weird. It looked like baseball's best team for much of the season. Then it almost faded out of the playoff race altogether after the pitching staff was ravaged by injury. Texas did earn a spot in the tournament, however, after a regular season in which the Rangers featured the run differential of a 96-win team but won just 90. All of the strangeness congealed into a masterpiece by the time October arrived, and the finishing touches were added in November when Texas beat Arizona. It was a magical season, but there are lots of reasons to think this year's Rangers have a real chance to be even better. Pivotal issue: The first couple of months of the season will be crucial for Texas as it gradually folds in the injury returns of Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. If that trio can ramp up to full capacity in time for October and join Nathan Eovaldi in a fearsome playoff rotation, the Rangers will be tough to beat. But they have to navigate those early weeks to be in position to deploy that plan. They need to get enough length from the starters they have and avoid over-taxing the improved back end of the bullpen. A deep, powerful and well-balanced lineup will certainly make that quest easier for Bruce Bochy.
 Minnesota TwinsWin average: 85.9
In the playoffs: 55.6%
Champions: 2.8% State of the franchise: After back-to-back disappointing seasons, the Twins won 87 games and their third division crown in five years. Even better, Minnesota beat the Blue Jays in a wild-card series to snap the franchise's reality-bending 18-game postseason losing streak. Still, it's now been 32 seasons since the Twins' last pennant and World Series win. Rather than bolstering the roster with veteran reinforcements, Minnesota slashed payroll. The Twins still look like a strong favorite in their soft division, but that's a low bar. Pivotal issue: A rash of early injuries to the bullpen, most significantly the oblique issue that has star closer Jhoan Duran on the shelf, is just one area in which the Twins' depth will be tested early and often. The rotation, which already had depth concerns, is now minus acquisition Anthony DeSclafani for the entire season. And the lineup is once again missing super-talented and oft-injured Royce Lewis. Minnesota needs some breakout performances. TIER 3: WE'RE SAYING THEY HAVE A CHANCEThe odds looked stacked against these teams in terms of immediate title contention, but a playoff berth is in play, so anything can happen.  Seattle MarinersWin average: 85.8
In the playoffs: 47.5%
Champions: 2% State of the franchise: Talk about a weird plateau. The Mariners have won 90, 90 and 88 games over the past three seasons, even though their run differential (minus-51, plus-67 and plus-99) keeps getting better. Maybe it's just a perception issue, but it sure feels like for all the shuffling Jerry DiPoto is always engaged in, when the dust settles, Seattle kind of winds up in the same place. Pivotal issue: You can imagine the Mariners becoming a very dangerous team in a playoff setting. In Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, Seattle has as good a rotation big three as anyone. The back of a healthy bullpen, which it currently is not, could be a strong playoff unit. But the offense looks uneven once again and more than anything, you'd love to see the Mariners land a dynamic bat to provide Julio Rodriguez with some better protection in the lineup. That puts the onus on someone already on hand -- Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco -- to have a huge season.
 Toronto Blue JaysWin average: 85.6
In the playoffs: 47.9%
Champions: 2.5% State of the franchise: Impatience. The Blue Jays are working on a string of four straight winning seasons and have made the postseason in three of those campaigns. They have lost all six playoff games they have played during that span. The regular-season performance has plateaued for the most part, and while it's a good plateau to be at, you wonder how long it can last. Toronto's Opening Day payroll this season ranks sixth in the majors and that's the Blue Jays' highest ranking since at least 2000, which is as far back as Cot's data goes. The modest rise over last year is more organic than a product of any real additional push. Toronto needs October results and soon, or else this may start to get peeled back. Pivotal issue: The Jays appear to have a very well-balanced team without any obvious red flags, provided their rough early-season injury luck starts to even out. Toronto needs a breakout campaign to put a real charge into this current run of winning. The Blue Jays need their projected stars to perform at the upper end of their probabilities for that to happen and, yeah, we're pretty much talking about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If Toronto is going to break through its current good-not-great ceiling, it starts with Vlad returning to MVP-level production.
 Cleveland GuardiansWin average: 84.5
In the playoffs: 47.2%
Champions: 1.9% State of the franchise: For a third straight season, the Guardians are starting with one of baseball's youngest rosters. The formula got them a division crown followed by a nice little run in the 2022 postseason, and a slide back under .500 in 2023. You expect a young team to move forward, not backward, but this may simply be the reality of baseball in Cleveland as long as it shies away from bolstering the mix with an impact veteran or two. Pivotal issue: The rotation has the potential to be one of baseball's strongest, but the Guardians need all of their various components to be performing at the same time. A return to health for Shane Bieber certainly helps. But they need Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee to continue to progress, Triston McKenzie to be more 2022 than 2023 and for Gavin Williams to get healthy. The team's defense and bullpen are well situated to complement a quality rotation, but this unit needs to hold up its end of the bargain.
 Chicago CubsWin average: 83.5
In the playoffs: 48.7%
Champions: 1.1% State of the franchise: The Cubs got back on the right side of .500 last season, though the lofty levels of the "Bryzzo" heyday remain elusive. Chicago didn't make a major splash in the offseason other than re-signing Cody Bellinger, but that's really more a matter of holding onto last year's gains. Chicago did deepen the roster with a few targeted free agents, but the headline addition was the manager, Craig Counsell, whose arrival on the North Side heralds in the next era of Cubs baseball. Pivotal issue: One of Counsell's strengths in Milwaukee was his ability to get consistent bullpen production without overworking any of the relief staff's key components. His skill in doing this will be put to the test early in Chicago thanks to key rotation injuries to Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon. The Cubs need their starters to hold their own in the opening weeks, which might simply mean getting through the order at least twice.
 St. Louis CardinalsWin average: 83
In the playoffs: 44.7%
Champions: 1.3% State of the franchise: The Cardinals' 15-year run of winning seasons ended abruptly in 2023, with St. Louis finishing in last place for the first time since 1990. Needless to say, the revered Redbird fanbase is not happy. The Cardinals project to regress which, in their case, is a good thing, but it is also not something that can be taken for granted. The team enjoyed a fairly aggressive offseason, especially when it came to the rotation. St. Louis' brass needs that to be enough because a repeat of last season would be a real problem for a fan base that prides itself on being baseball's best, a description that carries with it a certain expectation for the team to perform at that level. Pivotal issue: Much of the upside on the roster is carried by its youngest regulars, like shortstop Masyn Winn and outfielder Jordan Walker. The Cardinals badly need those players to make a leap. However, that issue has been trumped by a wave of early injuries that will test manager Oliver Marmol, who was recently given a contract extension despite last season's flop. Sonny Gray, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar are among the key Cardinals starting the season on the shelf.
 Boston Red SoxWin average: 82.9
In the playoffs: 33.4%
Champions: 1.3% State of the franchise: The Red Sox have suffered back-to-back losing seasons that landed them in the AL East cellar, and both of those things have now happened in three of the past four seasons. The other season ended in the ALCS, and after a tepid offseason for new GM Craig Breslow, a season more like that needs to happen to keep the Boston horde from growing even more restless. The passive winter was made even more frigid by the season-ending elbow injury suffered by Boston's biggest free agent signee, Lucas Giolito, in spring training. The pressure is on. Pivotal issue: The Red Sox need their youngest players to take steps forward. It's really as simple as that, given the dearth of external additions. Triston Casas needs to approximate his sterling play in the latter stages of 2023, Jarren Duran needs to improve and stay healthy, and Ceddanne Rafaela needs to establish himself. More needs to happen elsewhere on the roster, especially in a thin rotation, but this is the starting point of a Red Sox revival.
 San Diego PadresWin average: 82.5
In the playoffs: 38.4%
Champions: 1% State of the franchise: During the Cot's era (back to 2000), the San Diego Opening Day payrolls have been all over the place. In the middle. Bottom. Dead last (2010). And there was a three-year run in the top 10, culminating in last year's No. 3 ranking. For all of that financial aggression, the Padres got an 82-80 record, a third-place finish and a winter vacation that began after Game No. 162. This year's payroll is back in the middle of the pack, and the scale-back means that a roster still dominated by a handful of stars has seen plenty of flux. Pivotal issue: The San Diego lineup is top-heavy, a problem most noticeable in the outfield slots next to Fernando Tatis Jr. If top prospect Jackson Merrill, the Padres' Opening Day center fielder, proves to be ready, that fills one hole. But that's putting a lot on a player who has yet to play a single game in Triple-A. And then there's left field, where Jurickson Profar was brought back after a flirtation with free agency. The Padres need unexpected production from unexpected places or else a lineup that features Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts is still going to be below average. TIER 4: WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEARThese teams are mostly recent rebuilding units that have moved toward contention status and might be just a move or two away from climbing up the tier hierarchy.  San Francisco GiantsWin average: 82.2
In the playoffs: 37%
Champions: 0.8%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: The Giants could easily be bumped up a tier, but you have to draw the line somewhere, and they are the first team in the pecking order whose title odds slip below 1%. They are still very much part of a close pack of middling teams likely to contend for an NL wild-card slot. If that comes to pass, it will likely mean a winning season, just the second since Farhan Zaidi took over the front office in advance of the 2019 campaign. While the Giants still haven't connected on their biggest free agent swings under Zaidi, this winter was highly productive and positions them for a summer of contention. Pivotal issue: Run prevention should be a strength for the Giants. San Francisco features a strong rotation, bolstered by the addition of Blake Snell, and it should get better as the season goes along as starters return from the IL, including former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. You wonder if the Giants are going to score enough to make a run, and, given the club's tepid middle of the order, San Francisco could really use one of Jorge Soler's big seasons. While Soler will never contend for a batting title, his average is usually a solid leading indicator of how productive he is. When he's had his big homer seasons, his average has been .250 or better. When he's not at that level, he dips down into the .220s or worse. In itself, average isn't important for Soler except for this: When it's on the high side, it means he's making more consistent contact. And when Soler makes contact, the ball goes far.
 New York MetsWin average: 80.1
In the playoffs: 27.2%
Champions: 0.6%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: After a 101-win season in 2022, the Mets spent wildly in an effort to get over the top in 2023. Everything went wrong, as New York slipped to 75 wins and spent the latter part of the summer unloading veterans. Now, it's a fresh start for a club that still owns baseball's highest payroll. A good chunk of that money is going to players no longer on the team like Scherzer and Justin Verlander, so for first-year lead exec David Stearns and first-time manager Carlos Mendoza, there is a tiny needle to thread. The expectation remains to win now while also setting up a more sustainable process. Pivotal issue: Beyond Kodai Senga, the reconstituted Mets rotation features a lot of high-variability performers, with former Yankee Luis Severino perhaps the exemplar of that strategy. Senga injured his shoulder in spring training and while he is expected back fairly early in the season, for this version of the Mets to go anywhere, they really need him to be a serviceable No. 1. And even if that happens, New York must get the good versions of Severino, Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea, among others.
 Detroit TigersWin average: 80.1
In the playoffs: 27%
Champions: 0.4%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: The improvement the Tigers made in 2021 turned out to be a false spring. In 2022, Detroit lost 96 games. Then, last season, the Tigers improved to 78-84, though their run differential did not undergird that level of winning. Still, last season's uptick felt more real than the one in 2021 because it was built on the arrival and improvement of several key young performers. As that group grows and keeps getting better, so too will the Tigers rise in the AL Central, and the wait for that to happen may not be very long at all. Pivotal issue: The Tigers signed veterans Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty to stabilize a young rotation. They of course tried to do the same thing previously with Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen. At some point the young group needs to move to the fore -- also, at some point, they aren't going to be all that young anymore. Casey Mize is back from injury. Tarik Skubal looked like a budding Cy Young candidate late last season. Matt Manning appeared to establish himself in 2023, but Detroit sent him to Triple-A at the end of spring training. But it's this trio, along with other youngsters like Reese Olson, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden and Jackson Jobe, that needs to solidify as the foundation of the future Tigers.
 Cincinnati RedsWin average: 79.1
In the playoffs: 26.3%
Champions: 0.3%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: The Reds were one of baseball's most improved -- and most exciting -- teams in 2023. They were higher in the preseason pecking order when spring training began, but Cincinnati turned out to be right at the top of teams hit hard by the early injury (and suspension) bug. Still, the Reds have edged over .500 in three of the past four seasons and have so many dynamic young players on both the hitting and pitching side, it feels like a breakout campaign is coming sooner than later. Pivotal issue: The Reds seemed poised to go very young in the infield this season. And while Elly De La Cruz is out there doing things you can't stop watching, Noelvi Marte got himself suspended for half the season and Matt McLain injured his shoulder late in spring training, necessitating surgery. The bright side of those blows is that if the Reds can at least tread water over the first half of the season, they can get a lot more dynamic after the All-Star break without making a major transaction.
 Miami MarlinsWin average: 78.5
In the playoffs: 20.7%
Champions: 0.3%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: Unstable, as ever. The Marlins have managed two winning seasons and playoff appearances over the past four years. They made real gains last season under now former lead exec Kim Ng and NL Manager of the Year Skip Schumaker. But the team parted ways with Ng last season. Perhaps even worse, with the club poised to solidify its wild-card contender status with a couple of targeted, even pricey, offseason additions, Miami instead took its typically passive approach. Pivotal issue: The most exciting part of the Marlins' semi-rise was the depth of the young starting pitching in the organization. Alas, Miami opens the season with Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera on the IL. Alcantara is the only one we know we won't see in 2024, and for Miami to make a push, it needs its starting rotation to be one of MLB's best. The offense has some solid performers, but there is not enough in the middle of the order to keep the scoreboard turning.
 Milwaukee BrewersWin average: 78
In the playoffs: 22.5%
Champions: 0.4%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: Like the Twins -- their Central Division champion counterparts in the AL -- the Brewers slashed payroll over the winter and have a brand-new look as 2024 dawns. That begins in the dugout, where longtime bench coach Pat Murphy takes over for his onetime protege in Counsell. The rotation has been stripped down thanks to injury (Brandon Woodruff) and trade (Burnes) and can no longer be looked at as the foundation of the club. That designation now lies in the Brewers' clutch of exciting young outfielders, exemplified by top prospect Jackson Chourio, who broke camp as the Brewers' every-day right fielder. Pivotal issue: The Brewers of recent vintage have tended to feature take-and-rake offenses with high strikeout totals and low batting averages. This version might be more speed-based, and while the potential is there for a lot of stolen bases, for that to translate into average or better offense, Milwaukee needs to stand out in the average and on-base columns. Even with the Brewers' rotation in flux, and with standout closer Devin Williams out with a bad back, Milwaukee looks like a plus run prevention club. The Brewers need to get to average or better on offense, and their collective athleticism seems like the best path to get there.
 Kansas City RoyalsWin average: 70.5
In the playoffs: 4.3%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: There is a strange amount of optimism around the 2024 Royals for a team that doesn't have a highly ranked farm system and lost 106 games a season ago. That's what an aggressive winter will do for a fan base. You have to turn that into improvement on the field, though, and that's where things get complicated. Kansas City was a good bet to regress in the right direction no matter what it did during the offseason, but by raising the floor of the roster with so many middling veteran additions, now that improvement seems all but assured. Still, the long-term prospects for the franchise will be determined by another version of that word -- prospects. The Royals need to get on a roll in scouting and development. Pivotal issue: Getting from a 70-win baseline to the playoffs is tricky, but in the AL Central, we're really talking about being on something like an 82-win pace by the time trade season arrives. If Kansas City can overachieve for a couple of months, it would have a lot to gain by taking on some short-term money for a second-half push. None of this is particularly likely, but going onto the offseason after the 106-loss catastrophe, such talk would have seemed impossible.
 Pittsburgh PiratesWin average: 70.4
In the playoffs: 5.3%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: If you had to wager on which team from the middle two tiers would most exceed its baseline projection, the Pirates might be your best bet. Pittsburgh has put up five straight losing seasons, but in 2023 they made a 14-game leap and even led the NL Central for a good portion of the season. The Pirates have a good mix of veterans and young players, and among the youngsters there are some real high-upside performers like Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and the back-from-injury Oneil Cruz. Ke'Bryan Hayes is a Gold Glove third baseman whose bat seems to be getting better, and Henry Davis is back for his first full season at the big league level. Helping put all of this into focus is a strong bullpen, an organizational strength for which Pittsburgh probably doesn't get enough credit. Pivotal issue: The Pirates don't have a strong offense entering the season, and two of the weakest spots -- first base and DH -- are areas at which a young team like the Pirates needs stable production. The onus is on veterans like Rowdy Tellez, Connor Joe and Andrew McCutchen to produce. If they can, this can be a very exciting team.
 Los Angeles AngelsWin average: 70.3
In the playoffs: 2.9%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2025 State of the franchise: There may not be a more dysfunctional team at the moment. The Angels are reeling from the loss of Shohei Ohtani in free agency. Their two best remaining players, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, can't stay on the field. The minor league system is so thin that L.A.'s top draft picks like Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have rocketed to the major leagues, ready or not. The team is badly in need of a complete reset but team owner Arte Moreno doesn't seem to want to do it, nor does he want to push heavily into free agency. On top of all that, Trout, who can't be traded without his permission, seems intent to stay put. Pivotal issue: There just isn't much to love on this roster. If Neto, Schanuel and Logan O'Hoppe can make leaps, then perhaps the offense can push into above-average territory. The big "if" in that scenario isn't even about the youngsters, though, it's about Trout and Rendon. If both players can somehow eke out 140 games or so, then we have a necessary precondition in place for an overachieving season in Orange County. Barring that, it looks like more of the same for the Halos, with a real possibility of the floor really falling out beneath them. TIER 5: TWO YEARS AWAY ... AT LEASTThere is work to be done, probably too much to hope for a serious run this season.  Chicago White SoxWin average: 62.7
In the playoffs: 0.7%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2026 and beyond State of the franchise: New lead exec Chris Getz has aggressively pushed into a reset after the last rebuild fizzled. It had to be done, and even before Getz took over, the White Sox had entered the mode of dealing veterans to add depth to the minor league system. The organization is a lot deeper now, but all of the shuffling has left the big league roster with an empty shell of a pitching staff and a lineup full of glaring holes. The short-term looks bleak, and longer term there remains much work for Getz to do. Pivotal issue: In many ways, the season is all about Luis Robert Jr. After he more than doubled his career home run total with 38 blasts last season, the immensely talented center fielder is a star. He's a flawed star -- he remains too aggressive at the plate and likely will always remain thus -- but he's a star, nonetheless. He's also got four years of service time under his belt and turns 27 in August. The club options on the extension he signed a few years ago lock Robert into club-friendly salaries through 2027. Meanwhile, the White Sox system is thin in star-caliber prospects beyond shortstop Colson Montgomery, Kiley McDaniel's No. 8 overall prospect entering the season. Dealing Robert is one possible way to infuse the system with more upside, but whether or not it happens may depend upon how Getz conceptualizes the timeline for turning things around.
 Oakland AthleticsWin average: 61.9
In the playoffs: 0.3%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2026 and beyond State of the franchise: "Sittin' in the morning sun, I'll be sittin' when the evening comes. Watching the ships roll in, then I watch them roll away again." Pivotal issue: An owner who probably needs to listen to his fan base, wherever that ends up being.
 Washington NationalsWin average: 58.5
In the playoffs: 0.1%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2026 and beyond State of the franchise: The Nationals have languished since winning the 2019 World Series, having landed in the NL East cellar in all four seasons since that magical run. At some point the goodwill from a title starts to wear off for fans, and Washington is probably past that point. Frankly, the pessimistic projection is a little surprising. But even if you buy it, the Nationals have some interesting young players in place and some even more interesting players on the way. Pivotal issue: The pitching situation is murky in both the near and longer term, but maybe the plan is to spend big on pitching if the position group can come into focus. So while the 2024 Nats project to hemorrhage runs at a near league-worst rate, their fans can focus on the development of Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and just-promoted third baseman Trey Lipscomb in the majors. And they can count down the days until James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House join the fun. Then we can start puzzling over the pitching.
 Colorado RockiesWin average: 56.7
In the playoffs: 0.1%
Champions: 0%
ETA: 2026 and beyond State of the franchise: Nothing much has changed. It's a bad team with a few decent or better players on it. The owner's public comments remain head-scratching. Despite all of this, the franchise has had winning teams before, and it will again sometime in the future. But definitely not in 2024. Pivotal issue: McDaniel ranks Colorado's system at No. 22 and slotted just two Rockies prospects in his top 100. Which makes you wonder just what it is they're doing here. The Rockies gave an extension to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, which is a sign that they want to create some stability. Tovar has a career .285 on-base percentage, but he's a flashy defender and has both power and speed potential at the plate. He's still very young and the Rockies need him to keep developing. If he doesn't, Tovar's new contract could become an avatar for the organization's failings. Of course, that's a pretty pessimistic way to look at a young player with genuinely exciting upside.
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