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Now that the excitement of Opening Day has begun to fade into the grind of the long season ahead, it's time to turn our focus to one of the most valuable positions on the field. Every year, we rank the top starting pitchers in baseball, though this season is unique as the main storyline on the mound is an issue that is building across MLB: injuries. I've done editions of these ace rankings at the start of the last few seasons, but this year's version felt different from the beginning. Going into 2024, we had a number of injured ace or ace-adjacent pitchers from last season -- Jacob deGrom, Walker Buehler, Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara -- while long-term aces like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw had fallen out of that tier and were also injured. Then the recent rash of injuries hit, with another half-dozen pitchers who would figure prominently in these rankings going down since the start of spring training. In total, nearly half of the starting pitchers in the three tiers below are injured right now. In fact, the only Cy Young Award winners from the last 14 seasons that are active this week are Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes. With so many aces not currently on the mound, the list of healthy ones is quite short. So, I've decided to include injured pitchers in the tier they'd rank if they were healthy while also digging a bit deeper to explore the concept of what an ace, or number two pitcher, actually is in today's game. Now on to our list of the best pitchers in baseball right now -- or when they are able to return to the mound -- combining my own opinion with thoughts from evaluators across the industry.
The AcesHealthy (4): 1. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
2. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
3. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
4. Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants Injured (5): Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers
Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros Here's my yearly reminder that the concept of an ace or No. 1 starter isn't that there are 30 of them. It's an amorphous idea that scouts and executives use to pinpoint the top tier of starters, usually eight to ten pitchers at any time. (There are a number of ways to define an ace, varying from person to person.) We have nine aces right now, but only four are actively pitching at the moment. Valdez was the most recent to be scratched, though his injury may not be as serious, as the club hasn't placed him on the injured list. Wheeler is the closest of these four to the Platonic ideal of an ace: 6-foot-4, a pedigree of eliteness that dates back to high school, a mid-90's fastball and a plus breaking ball. He's an aggressive strikeout pitcher, throwing a lot of strikes while also being durable. Meanwhile, Gausman barely throws a breaking ball (just 4% of pitches so far this year), Burnes relies on an unusual cutter/slider/curveball combination for 93% of his pitches and Webb slings from a lower slot with below-average velocity. That goes to show that there are many ways to succeed when you're dictating the action.
The Almost AcesHealthy (11): 5. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
6. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
7. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Pablo Lopez, RHP, Minnesota Twins
9. George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
10. Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
11. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
12. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
13. Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Blake Snell, LHP, San Francisco Giants Injured (8): Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Justin Steele, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Max Scherzer, RHP, Texas Rangers
Justin Verlander, RHP, Houston Astros
Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers This group will start a lot of discussions and is basically the top half of the "No. 2" starters. Snell is the defending National League Cy Young recipient, Nola signed for $172 million this past offseason, Miller has made just 24 big league starts and Gallen's fastball is sitting at 92.4 mph right now. While three of the four aces in the first group find success in a myriad of ways, everyone in this group has one notable hole in their resume. That said, one dominating season can patch that hole, so I would expect at least one of these pitchers to make the leap this season -- Miller and Skubal are trendy picks to do just that, while Yamamoto has looked more like what scouts were originally expecting in his last two starts. Alcantara was the number one pitcher at this point last year, but a weak 2023 season leading to Tommy John surgery killed his momentum. Bieber came out this season -- a contract year -- looking like a new pitcher, but now he looks like a candidate for a pillow contract while he finishes his Tommy John rehab, so he'll have to prove next season that he's still that guy.
The Next TierHealthy (10): 16. Cole Ragans, LHP, Kansas City Royals
17. Zach Eflin, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
18. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
19. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
20. Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
21. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
22. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
23. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
24. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Chicago White Sox
25. Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta Braves Injured (9): Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dustin May, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Eury Perez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Kodai Senga, RHP, New York Mets
Jeffrey Springs, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Alex Cobb, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Robbie Ray, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies I think this group can be considered the bottom half of the number two starters, wrapping up what scouts would call "frontline" starters. I could have included another 10-12 similar-type guys, but I cut our ranking off at 25 as we're getting increasingly far from the concept of an ace. There are solid candidates that just missed the list where another month could show that they belong (Shota Imanaga) or you could argue for some up-and-comers like Tanner Bibee or Bryce Miller, or even a steady veteran (Joe Musgrove, Sonny Gray, etc.). I'd also toss in the top two pitching prospects still in the minors -- Paul Skenes and Jackson Jobe. Once they come up, it could only take about a month for them to be seen on par with some young pitchers listed above like Ragans, Rodriguez and Crochet. These players that just missed this final group feel like the top of the No. 3 starter tier. Most of the players in this group probably can't jump into ace territory with just one great season. Crochet has started three big league games after starting just thirteen in three college seasons. Sale has had durability issues and is now 35 years old, so there will be concerns at this time next year even if he throws 185 innings this season. Glasnow has never thrown 121 innings in a big league season before. You could argue if Ragans draws Cy Young votes after this season, he may be able to make that leap given his youth and the fact that he basically became a new pitcher in 2023 -- and has been a low-end ace since then -- but he's now at 23 career big league starts. On the injured side of things, May has seemed primed for a breakout into ace territory for years but has started just 34 games in five seasons. Perez has all the pieces you look for and was starting to put it together in the big leagues, but now won't get on a mound until at least next summer. Painter was very recently the top pitching prospect in baseball but hasn't thrown in a game since September of 2022. It's a sobering thought that half of MLB's good pitchers are injured right now. The marvels of science -- in terms of pitch design, training and surgery -- have helped get us to a point where pitchers can do things they've never done before. We can only hope that another breakthrough can help pull us out of this current predicament.
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