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Executives and agents left baseball's general manager meetings last week more optimistic than they usually are. In recent years, it has felt more common for the sides to talk past one another -- failing to communicate the sort of information that can lead to a free agent signing -- and cause Major League Baseball's winter to grind to a halt before it even begins. The conversations this year struck a number of people involved as productive. Teams identified their free agent targets. Agents suggested reasonable financial parameters. None of this means a fast-moving market will necessarily follow, but if one were to emerge, the clarity provided by the 72 hours in San Antonio offers a reason. The likeliest segment of the market to move quickly, both parties suggested, is starting pitching. It's the deepest position in the class, full of high-end, midtier and bargain options. There are one-year, make-good deals to be found on pitchers with Cy Young-level ceilings and short commitment opportunities to land brand-name talent. Pitching will be expensive -- it always is -- but teams have steeled themselves for that. The top-heavy hitting class could dictate how the rest of the market operates. The finite number of impact hitters can wait until the proper deal materializes, particularly with a paucity of top-tier bats available via trade. Complicating matters is the collapse of MLB's regional sports network structure. RSN money buoyed the league for the past decade-plus, and the shift of a half-dozen teams to the league running their local TV operations -- and the uncertainty of another half-dozen who either are TV free agents or could wind up without a home amid the legal troubles of Diamond Sports Group, whose financial issues run deep -- means less revenue. The stark local TV divide grows more obvious by the upcoming Diamond Sports court hearing. The biggest teams -- the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays -- all have stable RSN situations. The number of small-market teams affected by the potential failure of Diamond -- the Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays, among others -- only deepens a financial chasm that already existed. Despite those factors, there are teams ready to spend big in a year with stars such as Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki and Corbin Burnes headlining a strong free agent class. Here is everything you need to know about the winter ahead, from free agent hitting and pitching to the top potential trade options. Jump to: Free agent hitters | Free agent pitchers | Trade candidates
Free agent hittersThis year's crop of free agent hitters isn't as strong top to bottom as we have seen from other recent classes, with nine position players projected to get at least $50 million by ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, but the player at the top of the class is second to none. Juan SotoHe is in a category of his own among hitters, among this class and, really, among all free agents since the advent of free agency. Never has there been a free agent as young and prolific as Soto. Among players with at least 3,000 plate appearances through their age-25 seasons, here are the OPS+ leaders. Ty Cobb, 180 Mickey Mantle, 174 Mike Trout, 172 Jimmie Foxx, 171 Albert Pujols, 167 Tris Speaker, 166 Rogers Hornsby, 165 Juan Soto, 160 Joe DiMaggio, 156 Eddie Mathews, 154
Seven of the 10 played before free agency existed. Trout and Pujols signed contract extensions that kept them from hitting the market young. The closest comparisons to Soto are Alex Rodriguez (142, 21st) and Bryce Harper (139, 27th). It's no wonder, then, that some of the biggest markets in baseball are lining up for his services. Soto is starting to take meetings with teams this week in California, and the Blue Jays will be first, according to major league sources. After trying to land Shohei Ohtani last winter, Toronto is serious about adding a star alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and has targeted Soto. Another team with Soto at the top of its want list: Boston. The Red Sox also have a meeting on the books with Soto this week, and, like the Blue Jays, their aggressiveness extends into the starting pitching market as well. The two favorites in the Soto derby, the Mets and Yankees, also have meetings scheduled, according to sources. (Yankees manager Aaron Boone confirmed theirs.) The Mets' pursuit has gotten a hand from shortstop Francisco Lindor, who would love another star in Queens and has taken a role in recruiting Soto, while the Yankees can point to Soto's excellence in the Bronx this season as a precursor for more. If the money level was not clear at the beginning of the winter, it is now: Because of his age, Soto is going to warrant perhaps the longest contract in baseball history -- Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 14-year, $340 million deal holds the record -- and an expected guarantee in excess of $600 million. Other teams have shown interest but could be priced out. The Dodgers won't chase after Soto -- Ohtani's presence at designated hitter would leave them with limited options should Soto's defensive range force a move -- but would gladly consider him in the unlikely event his market softens. The Rays always appreciate unique players -- they were genuinely heavy on Freddie Freeman during his free agency -- but the prospect of them guaranteeing $600 million-plus when they have spent about that much for their past eight years' worth of teams is dubious. Soon enough, perhaps even before the winter meetings begin Dec. 9, we'll learn where Soto lands. This isn't going to be something that stretches into the new year. The biggest deal ever by pure value (when factoring Ohtani's deferrals) is coming.
The other nine-figure batsWilly Adames, shortstop: The 29-year-old is coming off a 32-homer season with the Brewers and has hit the second-most home runs in the past six seasons among shortstops, behind only Lindor. Though he makes all kinds of sense for the Giants, Adames' willingness to play third base ties him to the Mets and Yankees, too. The Dodgers will be in the mix as well. Adames should cash in, though any reports of contracts already offered are incorrect. Alex Bregman, third baseman: Bregman remaining a lifetime Houston Astro alongside Jose Altuve is a real possibility, particularly with the Astros concerned about ponying up for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who hits free agency after next season and is looking at a $300 million-plus deal. If it's not the Astros, Bregman would be an excellent fit in Detroit -- where he could reunite with former manager AJ Hinch -- as well as Toronto, should it fall short on Soto. Pete Alonso, first baseman: Alonso is unlikely to jump the market, especially with the interest of both New York teams currently tied up in Soto. For all of Alonso's warts -- he's a right-right, first-base-only power hitter who turns 30 in a month, and historically that profile ages poorly -- his production is impossible to deny. Over the past six years, only Aaron Judge has more home runs than Alonso's 226 -- and barely. Nobody has driven in as many runs as Alonso's 586.
Stock-up hittersTeoscar Hernández, outfielder: Hernández's desire for a deal of at least three years was only helped by his great division series and World Series performances. The Dodgers are the favorites to bring him back where he thrived in 2024. Boston is in. So is Baltimore. And the Yankees want him if Soto doesn't come back, though Hernández could have already signed by the time New York knows where it stands with Soto. Chances are Hernández will be one of the first big names off the board. Anthony Santander, outfielder: He's a switch-hitter. His 44 home runs in 2024 ranked second to Judge in the AL. He's a welcome clubhouse presence. At 30, Santander has been a consistent two- to three-win player, and because he brings big power in what's expected to be a sub-$100 million deal due to his low on-base percentage, he's drawing interest from lower-revenue teams as well as from the big boys. Christian Walker, first baseman: A productive hitter who is widely regarded as the best defensive first baseman in baseball, the 33-year-old is a late bloomer primed to snag a three-year deal. For a Yankees team looking to improve its defense, the three-time reigning Gold Glove winner would be an ideal fit. Jurickson Profar, outfielder: He ranked seventh in MLB in on-base percentage, behind Judge, Soto, Guerrero, Yordan Alvarez, Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr. Pretty good company. He hit a career-high 24 home runs and is a switch-hitter with an 88th-percentile strikeout rate. Profar, who turns 32 before Opening Day, checks boxes for a lot of teams. Hye-seong Kim, infielder: A .304 hitter during his eight seasons in the KBO, Kim's all-around game is alluring to teams inclined to gravitate toward players in their prime years. He will be 26 on Opening Day, and his ability to play up the middle (he's a second baseman who has experience and aptitude at shortstop), steal bases (30 this year, 211 in his eight-year career), hit for average (four consecutive .300-plus seasons) and occasionally damage a ball (a career-best 11 home runs this season) makes him a popular midtier player. Tyler O'Neill, outfielder: Judge was the best hitter in the majors against left-handed pitching this year, but O'Neill wasn't far behind. In 156 plate appearances against lefties, O'Neill hit 16 home runs and slashed .313/.429/.750 with the highest slugging percentage in MLB. The Red Sox would like to bring him back, and he would fit with the Giants and Tigers as well. Joc Pederson, outfielder: Pederson is the right-handed O'Neill -- and brings with him the sort of clubhouse presence teams crave. In 407 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Pederson hit .281/.392/.531 with 22 home runs. Like O'Neill, he warrants a multiyear deal.
Hitters with biggest questionsHa-Seong Kim, infielder: Even coming off a labrum surgery on his throwing arm that caused him to miss the postseason, Kim has options. He could sign a high-dollar, one-year deal, but the shoulder issue hasn't dissuaded teams from pursuing him for multiple seasons. Gleyber Torres, second baseman: One of the youngest free agents in the class at 28 on Opening Day, Torres is a prime change-of-scenery candidate after never living up to his early excellence. Max Kepler, outfielder: Like Torres, Kepler had the makings of a star but hasn't reached it after a 36-homer season in 2019. His ceiling remains tantalizing to teams, and even at 32 on Opening Day, he should do well. Paul Goldschmidt, first baseman: How much is left? At 37, Goldschmidt is coming off the worst season of his 14-year career. He also was much better in the second half. Between his history and his makeup, Goldschmidt will find teams willing to hand him their first-base job in hopes of getting a more representative version of him. Yoan Moncada, third baseman: He's still just 29, but Moncada's last good season came in 2021, and teams doubt his ability to have a midcareer turnaround. Alex Verdugo, outfielder: His offense cratered this season and left teams wondering whether he's primed for a bounce-back season or, at 28, is trending the wrong way younger than expected. Jorge Polanco, second baseman: He's an excellent candidate for a one-year, make-good deal after undergoing surgery on a left knee that hampered him throughout the 2024 season. Jose Iglesias, infielder: He was the Mets' amulet for much of 2024, and while a .382 average on balls in play boosted his batting average to .337 -- the highest in MLB among players with at least 250 plate appearances -- how much teams buy into his ability to run it back could differentiate between a one- and two-year deal. Jesse Winker, outfielder: The good Winker showed up in 2024 and will ensure him a guaranteed deal for 2025. If he takes a one-year deal and does it again, he could cash in big time going into the 2025-26 winter. There is one position you'll notice missing from this list so far: catcher. There's not much impact available. Kyle Higashioka's slug is alluring; his on-base aptitude is not. Danny Jansen is very good -- against left-handed pitching. Travis d'Arnaud, Carson Kelly and Yasmani Grandal round out a soft group.
Free agent pitchersWhat the hitting crop lacks in depth, the group of available free agent pitchers makes up for with close to a dozen midrotation-or-better starters on the market. Let's begin with the most unique free agent case in years. Roki SasakiWhenever he is posted this winter, Sasaki is going to generate the fiercest 30-team recruitment since Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels in 2017. Not only is the 23-year-old right-hander among the most talented pitchers in the world, but he will cost pennies compared with what he's expected to produce. Had Sasaki waited two years to leave Nippon Professional Baseball after turning 25 years old, he could have pursued a contract along the lines of the 12-year, $325 million deal the Dodgers gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Instead, the 6-4 right-hander will take the same route as Ohtani: signing a preposterously under-market minor league deal as an international amateur free agent. If the Chiba Lotte Mariners wait until a few days into December to place Sasaki in the posting system, it would make him eligible to sign in the new international period (which starts Jan. 15, 2025) in lieu of the current one (which ends Dec. 15), increasing the amount he can receive. In the 2025 scenario, the absolute maximum Sasaki can receive would be $12,088,800 -- and only from the eight teams (Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay) with the maximum amount of international bonus pool space. Even then, those teams have commitments to international players already, so using their full $7,555,500 pools and trading for the maximum amount of extra space (60% of their pool, or $4,533,300) is a long shot. But it is possible that someone will -- that's how much teams value Sasaki. His surplus value is exponentially higher than that of any other free agent in this class because the ceiling on the outlay to get him is capped. All the expected teams will do their best sales jobs: the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers and even the Rays. Sasaki has not said what he values in a team, which leaves them guessing -- and hoping. Because with his 100 mph fastball and perhaps the best splitter in the world, Sasaki has everything he needs to become the game's best pitcher.
Corbin BurnesThe most coveted domestic pitcher warrants his own category, too, and even at a high price point, the 30-year-old is drawing significant interest. He could anchor the Giants' rotation alongside Logan Webb or add to an already-strong quartet of Blue Jays starters with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis, who had a 1.53 ERA in nine games after he transitioned to starting Aug. 7. Don't forget about the Orioles, either. They are intent on filling out their rotation this winter, and new owner David Rubenstein is ready to spend. Burnes returning to Baltimore would be welcome for an organization that regressed in 2024 and is surrounded in the AL East by teams that plan to spend heavily this winter (New York, Toronto, Boston). At 30, Burnes has been a front-line starter for the past five years, and his ability to eat high-quality innings has been matched by few over the past three seasons. Only Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez have better ERAs with more than 500 innings pitched. And while Burnes' strikeout rate has dipped, his deadly cutter and high ground ball rate give him a high floor -- precisely the sort of thing teams want when they're almost certain to have to commit seven years and $200 million-plus to a starter.
The other nine-figure armsMax Fried, left-handed starter: He's exactly the sort of pitcher the Red Sox would like to anchor their rotation as their ascent back to contention begins. Toronto is in. San Francisco and Baltimore will be part of the mix, too. And don't forget the Dodgers, who are targeting at least one high-end starter. Fried, 31 on Opening Day, looks likely to get the second-largest guarantee for a pitcher this winter after posting a major-league-best 2.81 ERA over the past five seasons. Blake Snell, left-handed starter: His prospects will be better this winter than last, when he took a two-year deal from San Francisco that included an opt-out after the first year. Snell's final 14 starts were a reminder of how good he is: 80⅓ innings, 33 hits, 30 walks, 2 homers allowed, 114 strikeouts and a 1.23 ERA. He never allowed more than three runs in a game over the final three months of the season, and he allowed three just once. Jack Flaherty, right-handed starter: There's a chance Flaherty doesn't reach $100 million, but his doing so is enough of a possibility to warrant his inclusion in this tier. He threw 162 innings in 2024, the most he had in five years, and booked a 5-to-1 strikeout-walk ratio. If the Washington Nationals decide to spend on an anchor for their rotation, Flaherty could make sense. And the Yankees -- who killed a deal for Flaherty at the trade deadline out of concerns about his back -- could be in again.
Upper-middle-tier startersSean Manaea, left-handed starter: The market for his services is bountiful, and landing a four-year deal in the $20 million-a-year range looks likely. The Mets are hoping for a return engagement after a new arm slot led to career bests in ERA (3.47) and innings pitched (181⅔). Yusei Kikuchi, left-handed starter: He's awfully popular, too, after shoving for Houston following a maligned trade from Toronto. The Astros want him back, and other teams expected to operate in the midtier pitching market -- the Cubs, Dodgers, Angels and, if they whiff on the bigger names, Blue Jays and Orioles -- could compete for the 33-year-old's services. Nick Pivetta, right-handed starter: He almost certainly won't accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency. Teams believe his stuff plays like a front-line starter, and whether it's the Cubs, Orioles, Atlanta Braves or others, Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter. Nathan Eovaldi, right-handed starter: He opted out of a $20 million guarantee from Texas and will get at least that per year on a multiyear deal. Teams love his competitiveness, athleticism, consistency and leadership. Luis Severino, right-handed starter: He had the fourth-hardest fastball among 58 starters who qualified for the ERA title. His slider grades out as one of the best pitches in baseball. At 31 on Opening Day, he could be a front-line type for a lesser team or a splendid midrotation option for a better one. He also could return to the Mets on the $21.05 million qualifying offer.
Short-term bonanzasWalker Buehler, right-handed starter: Buehler showed during the postseason that he still has front-line ability, and without a qualifying offer to drag down his market, he's in line to get a big-money, one-year contract from a contender even after a disappointing regular season. A multiyear deal isn't out of the question, though at 30, Buehler could take the risk of a pillow contract in hopes of getting nine figures next winter. Shane Bieber, right-handed starter: He underwent Tommy John surgery in early April and is expected to return relatively early in 2025. He can take a one-year deal and hit the market again at 30 or lock in a strong guarantee over two years. Max Scherzer, right-handed starter: Once the pitching market starts to shake out, Scherzer will be available as a high-ceiling option. Yes, he's 40. He's still a surefire Hall of Famer. And has something to prove. Justin Verlander, right-handed starter: Like Scherzer, Verlander is coming off a disappointing 2024 -- and, for the first time in his illustrious 19-year career, he was knocked around consistently. He'll be 42 on Opening Day. Short-term rotation playersCharlie Morton, right-hander: He intends to pitch next season at 41 and remains a reliable innings eater with strikeout ability. He'll get a one-year deal with a contender. Matthew Boyd, left-handed starter: Tremendous in his return from Tommy John surgery -- including 12 postseason innings with only one run allowed. An arrow-up guy who went from midsummer flier with Cleveland to a multiyear deal this winter. Tomoyuki Sugano, right-handed starter: He had a 1.67 ERA and walked only 16 over 156⅔ innings with the Yomiuri Giants. At 35, he doesn't have stuff that sizzles, but he's the sort of practitioner of pitching who still can find success in the big leagues. Michael Lorenzen, right-handed starter: He doesn't strike out many. He walks more than he should. He also gets outs and is beloved for his work ethic and clubhouse presence. Frankie Montas, right-handed starter: The stuff is good enough that he'll get a strong one-year deal. Jose Quintana, left-handed starter: He put up numbers strikingly similar to Severino's and Manaea's for the Mets, and though his age and stuff will prevent him from getting a big deal, he earned a rotation spot somewhere in 2025. Andrew Heaney, left-handed starter: Heaney threw 160 innings -- his most since 2018 -- struck out 159 and will draw interest as a back-end sort. Others: left-handers Shinnosuke Ogasawara, John Means and Wade Miley and right-handers Trevor Williams, Michael Soroka, Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Spencer Turnbull.
Top relieversTanner Scott, left-handed reliever: Scott's fastball-slider pairing is so hard to hit that it barely matters that he walks too many hitters. Over the past two years, batters are slashing .186/.274/.254 against Scott. He'll get three years easy, and interested teams could use a fourth year -- still at a hefty average annual value -- as a separator to land the best reliever available. Jeff Hoffman, right-handed reliever: The former No. 9 draft pick found the best in himself after turning 30, and his fastball-slider-splitter combination led to 89 strikeouts in 66⅓ innings. Even after a bad postseason, Hoffman made enough of an impression to warrant at least a three-year deal. Carlos Estevez, right-handed reliever: After escaping Colorado in 2022, Estevez was an All-Star in 2023 and has saved 57 games over the past two years. He can close or play a multipurpose high-leverage role. Clay Holmes, right-handed reliever: In four years with the Yankees, Holmes threw 217⅔ innings of 2.69 ERA ball. His sweeper is one of the best pitches in baseball, and his sinker sits 96-98 mph. He's likely to wind up with a three-year deal.
Fine-wine relieversKirby Yates, right-handed reliever: Arguably the best non-Emmanuel Clase reliever during the 2024 regular season, Yates will be 38 on Opening Day. While he won't get a deal that takes him into his 40s, he should cash in on a high-dollar, shorter-term contract. Blake Treinen, right-handed reliever: At 36, Treinen has lost a few ticks on his sinker but has gained even more respect for his postseason excellence. He can close or serve as a fireman. David Robertson, right-handed reliever: Year 16 was classic Robertson. Massive strikeouts with lots of innings (99 in 72) and excellent grades on his cutter and curveball. He'll turn 40 in April. Kenley Jansen, right-handed reliever: His cutter is still elite, and, with 447 career saves, the 37-year-old could jump ahead of Hall of Famer Lee Smith into third place with 32 more.
How the trade market could shape the winterThe name that dominated talk at the trade deadline will also be the most-coveted ace on this winter's trade block -- but there is also a strong group of potentially available position players, especially for teams looking for infield help. Garrett Crochet, left-handed starter: The prize of the winter trade market, Crochet is almost certainly going to be dealt by the Chicago White Sox. His cheap salary for the next two years -- because he spent his first four seasons as a reliever or injured, the arbitration system will limit him severely -- is eminently appealing. Also desirable to some teams: Crochet's willingness to sign a long-term extension. Still, he won't just take any deal, which could complicate general manager Chris Getz's ability to move the 25-year-old. Tommy John surgery kept Crochet out all of 2022 and most of 2023, and though teams might be inclined to give up more in a deal if they know they can lock up the lefty, his medical records will be scrutinized by any team looking to acquire him -- as they were in a similar situation last year, when the Dodgers acquired right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Whether it's the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles or any other of a number of interested teams, the winner of the Crochet sweepstakes will get a pitcher who struck out 209 batters in 146 innings. Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley, right-handed relievers: One GM recently made an important point as Milwaukee considers moving Williams and St. Louis ponders Helsley, a year before each reaches free agency: Shouldn't both teams hold on to their relievers and cash in at the deadline, when contenders are willing to give up more talent? It's a reasonable argument, though so is the counter: The risk of either getting hurt, and the possibility of not getting to cash in should their teams succeed -- remember the hullabaloo over the Josh Hader deal? -- makes now the proper time to strike. The Cardinals aren't as likely as Milwaukee to be in contention and might be more motivated this winter to move the major league saves leader. Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo, right-handed starters: Both wield full no-trade clauses, so all of this could be moot. St. Louis is open to moving the 35-year-old Gray amid a reset, and if the Mariners were to pluck from their MLB-best rotation to address offensive deficiencies, the soon-to-be-32-year-old Castillo would be the likeliest to go. Any deal, of course, would necessitate approval from the veterans. Nico Hoerner, second baseman: The Cubs don't have to trade the 27-year-old this winter, but with Matt Shaw big-league-ready, they could use Hoerner to land a starting pitcher. Hoerner's ability to play shortstop as well is appealing to teams interested in middle-infield help. Another Cub available: Cody Bellinger, who opted into a $27.5 million salary for 2025. Alec Bohm, third baseman: Coming off a career-best season, the 28-year-old Bohm nonetheless finds himself on the trade block. While he was a well-above-average hitter -- .280/.332/.448 with 61 extra-base hits -- his first-half OPS was nearly 150 points higher than in the second half, and the Phillies are looking to shake up their team after a disappointing postseason ouster by the Mets. Nolan Arenado, third baseman: Another player whose no-trade clause complicates things, Arenado turns 34 in April and spent 2024 as a league-average hitter. Arenado is valuable -- his glove at third still dazzles -- but with $74 million left on the final three years of his deal (Colorado is paying $10 million of it), the Cardinals would need to eat money. Josh Naylor, first baseman: The 27-year-old Naylor is a middle-of-the-order threat -- and, because he's a free agent after this season, the sort of player the Guardians typically move in their constant three-card roster monte. To teams unwilling to pony up for Alonso or Walker, he's a solid fallback plan. Jordan Montgomery, left-handed starter: The Diamondbacks want to move him and will eat some of his $22.5 million salary to do so. He's near the top of the list of players likeliest to get dealt after a rough 2024, and he'll head to his new team with plenty to prove as another go-around at free agency beckons Brandon Lowe, second baseman: The Rays will field plenty of calls on Lowe and first baseman Yandy Diaz, their two highest-paid position players. They're also two of Tampa Bay's best players, so either moving is no guarantee. LaMonte Wade Jr., first baseman: As new president of baseball operations Buster Posey reimagines the Giants' roster, Wade -- whose .376 on-base percentage ranks 11th among the 144 players with at least 900 plate appearances over the past two years -- is available. So is outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, a free agent after the 2025 season. Brendan Rodgers, second baseman: The Colorado Rockies are open to moving the 28-year-old Rodgers as well as right-handed reliever Justin Lawrence, whose slider could be even more dastardly if he didn't play half his games at Coors Field.
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