|
The intrigue around All-Star pitcher Garrett Crochet overflowed during Major League Baseball's July trade deadline, with everyone in the industry wondering whether the Chicago White Sox would trade him. Four months later, some of the mystery has evaporated. "They're going to trade him this winter," said a rival evaluator in attendance at last week's general manager meetings. "It's not a matter of if; it's a question of when." It's no surprise. Chicago binged on defeat in 2024, going 41-121, and the franchise desperately needs an influx of major league players, particularly among its position player group. If the rebuilding job were a football field, the White Sox would be at their own 1-yard line, with years of development ahead of general manager Chris Getz and new manager Will Venable. The front office seems to be in the preliminary stages of this round of Crochet talks, with a lot of surface-level conversations so far. The collective takeaway from rival executives is that its preference in a deal now is the same as it was back in July: In return for a difference-maker left-hander who whiffed 209 batters in 149 innings last season, Getz wants a package of prospects constructed around at least one high-ceiling youngster to anchor the deal. Chicago's preference is for that main piece to be a position player, but sources say that depending on the depth and quality of the prospects offered, it would consider taking a pitcher as the centerpiece. Last year, Crochet's representative, Andrew Nacario, conveyed the message that the pitcher would need a contract extension in order to pitch in the postseason, but interest remained high. The Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves were the best-positioned team to make deals in July. But Getz and his staff decided that unless somebody met their high bar in an asking price, they would keep Crochet. Right after the deadline, some evaluators with other teams believed that Getz absolutely should have dealt the pitcher -- both because Crochet was the most sought-after option in the pitching market, and also because of the inherent risk of injury or a decline in performance in a season in which he was destined to throw a career high in innings. But Getz' gamble seems to have paid off. Over the past two months, Crochet continued to pitch under a reduced workload, maintaining his dominance and demonstrating that he could be effective as a starter over a full season. "I think [Getz] is going to get at least as much" as he asked for back in July, said one executive. This winter, Crochet's value will be heightened as the best alternative to the more expensive free agent starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried will likely each make more in a couple of months of their forthcoming deals than Crochet has made in his career, to date. It goes without saying that any team could use someone like Crochet, whose strikeout-to-walk ratio in the first innings of games was 23.5, and who held opponents to a .189 average when he faced hitters for a third plate appearance in his starts. But there are probably only a handful of teams that would be willing to pay the high prospect price for Crochet, with two more years remaining before he'll become eligible for free agency. (The presumption among multiple evaluators involved in the Crochet trade talks is that the team that acquires him will negotiate the contract extension he wants -- perhaps in January, when Crochet is scheduled to go through arbitration.) Based on conversations with sources around the majors, these are teams that could be a fit for a Crochet deal.
Philadelphia PhilliesThe Phillies would have landed Crochet in July, in all likelihood, had they agreed to include pitcher Andrew Painter as part of their offer. Painter, now 21 years old and a Top 100 prospect, has worked in the Arizona Fall League recently as part of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and looked good in five starts, posting a 2.08 ERA. Dave Dombrowski, the head of baseball operations for the Phillies, is operating a win-now team. Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner and Aaron Nola are in the prime of their respective careers, and catcher J.T. Realmuto, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and left-hander Ranger Suarez are all a year from free agency. If Dombrowski pulls off a Crochet deal, he could build a monster rotation -- something he knows about, some peers say, noting his time with the Detroit Tigers -- of Wheeler, Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Suarez and Crochet. (Taijuan Walker is also under contract for two more seasons, at $18 million annually, and coming off a season in which he posted a 7.10 ERA.) Besides augmenting the Phillies in the immediate future, Crochet -- who is 25 years old -- could be part of a bridge into the future for what is generally an older team. And with the White Sox in rebuild mode and their payroll on the way down, it's possible that a Crochet-Phillies deal could provide some kind of financial offload for the Phillies. Getz spoke with Philadelphia at the GM meetings. San Diego PadresPadres GM A.J. Preller has demonstrated he is capable of adding or subtracting any caliber of player. He has traded for and swapped away Juan Soto, who will likely shatter the record for the biggest contract ever this winter (in present-day value). Last spring, he made a deal with Getz for Dylan Cease. With Cease and Michael King a year from free agency and Joe Musgrove expected to miss next season following elbow surgery, Crochet would be a big help for the San Diego rotation for at least a couple of years. But some rival evaluators say it would be all but impossible for the Padres to land Crochet unless they include Ethan Salas, the 18-year-old who might baseball's best catching prospect, and/or Leodalis De Vries, an 18-year-old shortstop, who are ranked among the Top 30 prospects in the majors. Even for Preller, a price tag involving one or both might be too high, given that the Padres need an influx of cheaper players, given some of their big-dollar obligations. New York Yankees The Yankees wanted to deal with the White Sox last summer, but Chicago focused on other teams, largely because they didn't feel the Yankees had the kind of quality of prospects they were looking for (a view shared by other teams). Landing Crochet would help the Yankees in a lot of ways -- augmenting their rotation, landing a relatively young pitcher. But the Yankees don't seem well-positioned for a Crochet deal. Los Angeles DodgersThe Dodgers talked to the White Sox about Crochet last season, and in recent years, L.A. seems to get what it wants. Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty are in free agency now, and while the full industry expectation is that Clayton Kershaw will re-sign with the Dodgers, it's impossible to know what he'll provide, in his age-37 season (he made seven starts last year). So the Dodgers do have a need, and they are capable of generating an offer that would get the attention of the White Sox. Atlanta BravesWith Max Fried and Charlie Morton free agents, some rival executives and agents see the Braves making at least one big move this winter -- and it might be for a shortstop, like free agent Willy Adames. But Alex Anthopoulos' history is that he does not pay retail for anything: His roster is filled with players who signed long-term deal early in their careers. Adames could get more than Dansby Swanson -- whom Anthopoulos was unwilling to pay just two winters ago; in the last offseason, the Braves pursued Nola and were outbid by Phillies. Crochet would be costly in prospects but not so in salary: He served as a reliever in the early years of his career when he wasn't hurt, and made just $800,000 last year. He's due for a hefty raise, but even a generous one would not be nearly as costly as signing someone like Burnes or Fried. The Braves were involved in the Crochet trade talks in the summer, and it figures they will be again -- at the very least, to push the Phillies, as they did in the Nola negotiations. Baltimore OriolesThe Orioles' need for starting pitching is as obvious now as it was before the trade deadline, and with Burnes a free agent, Baltimore has multiple rotation holes to fill. Their interest in Crochet is "sincere," to borrow the word of one source. He would fill the need for an ace, and because of his relatively low salary, he would fit their budget. The question about the Orioles now, as it was back in July, is how deeply the team's leadership is willing to dig into the team's wealth of prospects, especially with Baltimore right in the middle of its theoretical window to win. The O's clearly match up well with the White Sox in what each team needs from a deal. This is the first offseason the Orioles have operated under new owner David Rubenstein, and the great unknown is how he will affect the choices of the front office -- or if he will push general manager Mike Elias, as many other owners do. Boston Red SoxCraig Breslow, head of baseball operations for the Red Sox, oversees a system teeming with four elite prospects, from outfielder Roman Anthony to catcher Kyle Teel, and at some point, the Red Sox might have to make a decision on whether to move Rafael Devers to first base, which could free up Triston Casas. So the Red Sox are fully capable of putting together an offer to land Crochet -- and if that happened, said one rival evaluator, "They would compete for the playoffs next year." Breslow is seen as more deliberate in his decision-making than Dombrowski or Preller, and might prefer to keep his homegrown guys and spend dollars on pitching, rather than prospects. In theory, they could sign a Burnes or a Fried and hoard the prospects. But the Red Sox have the financial and prospect ammunition to take either path. New York MetsThe Mets need starting pitching desperately this winter, and they undoubtedly have the prospect capital to put together an offer. But with David Stearns just starting his second year as the head of baseball operations for the Mets, staffers around the majors believe it makes more sense for Stearns, at the moment, to use his extraordinary payroll flexibility for free agents, rather than dealing from his evolving farm system. The Mets already are pursuing Juan Soto, and Stearns obviously knows Corbin Burnes well from their days with the Brewers today. "If they get multiple free agents, then the draft pick hit wouldn't be as severe," one executive noted. One argument for the Mets to load up in a trade for Crochet: His relatively low salary for the next two years would help to offset other expenditures. One early concern about the Mets' position players prospects: While they have future major-leaguers, do they have the kind of high-impact young player around which they can anchor an offer for Crochet?
|
