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The MLB offseason is off to a slow start -- but things are expected to heat up soon. While we wait for the action to pick up, we asked a panel of experts to predict what's to come. Which teams will be the busiest when the free agency and trade movement starts? Which players are set to cash in, and where will stars such as Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Corbin Burnes land? Here's how 18 MLB team executives and baseball insiders answered those questions and more. (Respondents were given the option to skip any questions, so not every answer has 18 votes.)
Will Juan Soto get more than $600 million, and who will give it to him?Survey says: $600 million? Yes 11, no 7 Who will sign him? Yankees 12, Mets 4, Blue Jays 2 More of our panel agreed on where Soto will sign than on how much money he'll get. A common belief from our respondents was that the Yankees will match (or come close enough to matching) any number agent Scott Boras brings them to keep Soto in pinstripes. The message we heard from our insiders was clear: The Yankees don't let stars walk. That happens to other teams. "Do you think George Steinbrenner would allow one of the best players in the world to leave?" one executive from a smaller market said. "I know the Dodgers are the new Yankees, but he's in pinstripes now." Some execs pointed to the on-the-field fit that helped propel New York to the World Series. The Yankees had craved a left-handed hitter to balance their offense for years. Now that Soto excelled in filling that role, letting him go would essentially mean starting over. "I think Brian Cashman will show ownership just how valuable he is to their lineup," another executive opined. One voter who picked the Mets believes that any amount of money Steve Cohen pays to get Soto to move across New York would be justified, considering his rare combination of youth and ability. "Cohen spent on [Justin] Verlander and [Max] Scherzer at the wrong age for both of them," he said. "[Francisco] Lindor is proof [signing a big star] can pay off. And Scott will sell him on that [Soto's age, 26]."
Where will the top three free agent aces with MLB experience sign?Survey says: Corbin Burnes: Mets 7, Red Sox 2, Orioles 2, Dodgers 2, Rangers 1, Cubs 1, Giants 1 Blake Snell: Giants 7, Phillies 4, Blue Jays 2, Reds 1, Mets 1, Red Sox 1 Max Fried: Mets 4, Dodgers 2, Giants 2, Cubs 2, Braves 2, Red Sox 2, Reds 1, Rangers 1, Orioles 1 As expected, there was a large variety of answers to a question that required our panel to play some free agency dominoes in picking landing spots for the top three veteran pitchers available. One thing was clear, though: Our insiders expect the Mets to be one of the key players for the big free agent pitchers available this winter -- and with New York's resources, our panel expects the Mets to land at least one of the biggest three. "They might lose all three starters who led them in the playoffs," one executive opined. "Why not try to get better?" The voter who picked Burnes going to the Cubs thought a reunion with Craig Counsell made a lot of sense, but Chicago has indicated it won't be swimming in that end of the free agency pool. Why were the Giants such heavy favorites to retain Snell after he opted out of his deal in San Francisco? "It clicked for him on the West Coast," one executive said. "I don't see him leaving."
Will Pete Alonso leave the Mets?Survey says: No 10, yes 8 It's a near toss-up, according to our executives. It seemed as if Alonso was as good as gone a year ago at this time, said one executive who expects the first baseman to stay in Queens. But Alonso's attachment to the team and city only grew through the Mets' unexpected playoff run. New York knows about the downside of a potential long-term contract for an aging first baseman, but the Mets also know what Alonso means to a group that rode chemistry and a powerful lineup deep into October. "Their current payroll allotment for next year is way below where this year's was," one executive said. As another added, "I think the playoffs did the trick for him. I'm not sure he'll get a better deal than from the Mets." Nearly half of our voters do expect Alonso to sign elsewhere -- though one predicted he would still call the National League East home. "He signs with Washington as a vibes/power guy similar to when they signed Jayson Werth before 2011, before their team was fully formed," one voter said.
Will Alex Bregman leave the Astros?Survey says: Yes 11, no 7 In another fairly close vote for a longtime star, the value of Bregman's experience and leadership tilted executives to him leaving Houston. "Because other teams need his bat and battle-tested vet presence more than Houston does," one said. A few of our respondents offered potential landing spots if Bregman leaves Houston, including Philadelphia if the Phillies trade Alec Bohm or San Francisco in a bigger-than-expected deal. Boras, Bregman's agent, has indicated a position change wouldn't be out of the question for the third baseman, and that would open the door to joining Matt Chapman in San Francisco's infield. "Bregman moving to second base seemed directed at the Giants," one voter stated.
Which free agent contract is going to raise eyebrows the most?Survey says: Nick Martinez 3, Alex Bregman 2, Jurickson Profar 2, Willy Adames 1, Anthony Santander 1, Tyler O'Neill 1, Nick Pivetta 1, Max Fried 1, Juan Soto 1, Christian Walker 1 Every winter, there's that one player who seemingly everyone agrees is getting overpaid. Who is it going to be this year? Our experts were pretty split on the subject, with only Martinez receiving more than two votes; but that pick appears to be a moot point since he reportedly is accepting the qualifying offer he received from the Reds. If Martinez does, he'll get a $7 million raise and a $21 million payday that is likely more than the annual salary he would have received on the open market. "I think a lot of people were surprised he got a QO," one executive said. "Seems like Nick's reps know something about his market that outsiders may not?" While many of the players on this list were second-tier free agents, some of the headlining names of this winter's class also were mentioned. Bregman might get a bigger payday than some expect for a corner infielder who already has turned 30 simply because teams want to lean on his experience as perhaps a finishing touch to a championship-caliber roster. Profar and Adames showed up on the list because they had career years last season. Yes, even Soto appears here. No matter the player, there will always be some sticker shock to a deal that could exceed $600 million, so perhaps that type of response from a smaller-market executive isn't that surprising. "I think the amount of money that is not deferred is going to be shocking," one voter stated.
Which team will land Garrett Crochet if the White Sox trade him this winter?Survey says: Mets 5, Braves 4, Orioles 3, Phillies 2, Red Sox 2, Dodgers 1, no trade 1 After the White Sox made the surprising decision to hold on to Crochet at the trade deadline, the All-Star pitcher will no doubt be the most mentioned name in trade speculation this offseason. Trying to pick which team will land him kept our executives guessing to the point that one threw his hands up and said, "No trade." That's highly doubtful, though, as the White Sox have an opportunity to move Crochet at his peak this winter. The Mets were the most popular destination here -- as they were in our question above about free agent aces -- but some voters who picked New York mentioned they weren't overly confident about the choice. Members of our panel who picked the Braves see Crochet as a replacement if Fried leaves in free agency. Atlanta and Chicago already have connected on trades since Chris Getz took over as White Sox GM, which could help in laying the groundwork of a deal this winter. "Sox would rather put him in the NL," one voter said. "Wouldn't rule out other big-market clubs. Where Garrett wants to sign an extension is a factor and would think Atlanta is the most appealing landing spot for him long term." If the White Sox deal Crochet within the American League, the Orioles are seen as a strong fit since Crochet's contract will be affordable over his final two years of team control before becoming a free agent. And the Orioles have plenty of prospect capital to entice the White Sox to make a deal. "Chicago wants hitters," one executive said. "Baltimore has them."
Who is another top trade candidate besides Crochet?Survey says: Devin Williams 4, Ryan Helsley 3, Nolan Arenado 2, Alec Bohm 2, Jordan Montgomery 2, Cody Bellinger 1, Adolis Garcia 1, Heston Kjerstad 1, J.T. Realmuto 1 Crochet isn't the only big name our panel thinks could move this offseason. A pair of NL Central closers topped this list. On paper, however, one makes more sense than the other: Milwaukee just won the NL Central by 10 games -- meaning the Brewers have an immediate need for Williams as they try to run it back next season -- while St. Louis is in retooling mode, making Helsley expendable. "Helsley is the first name I thought of," one executive said. "Talk about an unneeded asset at his best? St. Louis can really help themselves." One voter suggested the Brewers hold on to Williams unless they fall out of the race, in which case they could move him in July, when closers bring back the most return anyway. Helsley might not be the only Cardinal to go this winter if St. Louis moves him. "I don't see how Arenado stays there," one voter said. "They'll work around his no-trade clause, and he'll end up in one of the bigger markets -- L.A., Philly or New York." While most of the players our panel picked have been at least mentioned in offseason trade speculation, one name selected caught us by surprise: Realmuto. Would the Phillies trade their star catcher ahead of his final season before hitting free agency? One exec believes it could happen if Dave Dombrowski wants to shake things up after a division series exit in October. According to our voter, Realmuto might be the most tradable player on the Phillies' roster outside of Bohm.
Which smaller-market team will make the most noise this offseason?Survey says: Royals 4, Reds 3, Cardinals 3, Tigers 3, Rays 2, Mariners 1, Brewers 1, Pirates 1 Our panel predicts another active winter for a Royals front office that surprised many with its signings last offseason. Kansas City didn't show up in any of the free agent picks for specific players, but voters who chose the Royals here were pretty confident they'd make some noise after an unexpected postseason run. "Royals have an early start in this category by retaining [Michael] Wacha," one voter said. The Reds showed up in this list, as they were active last winter, as well, and seemed to signal a desire to speed up their timeline for contending when they hired veteran manager Terry Francona in October. "I'll take the Reds just because of Tito," one executive said. "They're not that far off. One good hitter and pitcher puts them in the thick of the [NL] Central." While neither is expected to be busy in free agency, the Cardinals and Rays were popular picks here because our panel thinks both could play a big part in this winter's trade market.
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