| | All innings are not created equal
Say, what? Indeed, in order to succeed in postseason baseball you need to succeed over the final three innings. That means bullpen depth and quality pinch-hitting off the bench.
Take a look at how many runs each team has scored from the seventh inning on during each World Series this decade and compare that with totals through the first six innings. The World Series champion is listed first:
|  | | John Rocker and the Braves bullpen could be the key to the Series. |
Team 7th+ 1st-6th
1990
Reds 4 18
A's 0 8
1991
Twins 9 15
Braves 14 15
1992
Blue Jays 8 9
Braves 4 16
1993
Blue Jays 18 27
Phillies 10 26
1995
Braves 11 12
Indians 7 12
1996
Yankees 8 10
Braves 2 24
1997
Marlins 14 23
Indians 11 33
1998
Yankees 14 12
Padres 4 9
Only one World Series winner this decade has been outscored from the seventh inning on, the '91 Twins. But even that is a little misleading. Nine of Atlanta's 14 post-sixth inning runs came in a 14-5 blowout in Game 5. The Twins won the final two games in extra innings.
As you can see, however, only one World Series winner this decade dominated its opponent in the first six innings, the '90 Reds, who outscored Oakland 18-8 in the early frames.
Over the years, people have liked to point to Atlanta's bullpen problems. Actually, a bigger problem has been the Braves' bench. Atlanta's pinch-hitters have fared very poorly this decade -- just 3-for-27 in World Series play. One of the stranger decisions of the playoffs was Bobby Cox's choice to keep Randall Simon, who hit .317 during the season, off the postseason roster, while keeping the likes of Guillen, Jorge Fabregas and Otis Nixon.
Of course, having a dominating bullpen is vital to late-inning success as well. The Nasty Boys crushed the A's in 1990. Duane Ward and Tom Henke provided a mean one-two punch for the Blue Jays. Mariano Rivera set up John Wetteland in 1996. During Cleveland's two World Series losses, the problem wasn't the lack of a No. 1 starter, but a bullpen that failed in the latter innings.
As for 1999, the Yankees have Rivera, who hasn't allowed a run since July 21. Ramiro Mendoza stopped two eighth-inning rallies in the ALCS. However, Mike Stanton, Jeff Nelson and Allen Watson have been shaky. Joe Torre will likely need those guys to get some key outs.
Atlanta's bullpen has been thoroughly tested so far in the playoffs. The big advantage for the Braves is having three quality left-handers in Mike Remlinger, Terry Mulholland and closer John Rocker. That will help against Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez, as well as Darryl Strawberry, who becomes a key pinch-hitter in the non-DH games.
The El Duque factor
In five career postseason starts, Orlando Hernandez is now 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA. That is only one problem facing the Braves. The other problem is Hernandez is murder on right-handed hitters: they hit just .187 against him this season, while lefties hit .273 off him.
The Braves feature just three lefties among their eight regulars: Ryan Klesko and switch-hitters Chipper Jones and Walt Weiss. Their top lefties off the bench are Keith Lockhart and Greg Myers. More bad news for the Braves? David Cone held righties to a .214 average.
Chipper vs. Bernie
Since Chipper Jones hit four home runs in three games against the Mets from Sept. 21-23, he's hit ... well, he hasn't hit another one out of the ballpark. He finished the regular season with 26 homerless at-bats and has added 32 more in the postseason. That's 58 at-bats without a home run. Meaning Chipper is due.
More than likely, the Braves will need Chipper to do some damage. He's been pitched around by the Astros and Mets -- he's drawn 14 walks, nearly one every third plate appearance -- so it will be interesting to see how the Yankees approach him. Teams have been going after Brian Jordan, who's responded with 12 RBI in 10 postseason games, and Andruw Jones, who's hitting .220 with three RBI.
Bernie Williams remains the vital element in New York's lineup. As a switch-hitter, he separates lefties O'Neill and Martinez. Expect him to get a lot of late-inning at-bats while hitting right-handed. This year, he hit .297 against lefties and .359 vs. righties.
Williams would also like a bit of World Series redemption. Last year, with his free agency impending, his future was constantly questioned throughout the World Series and he hit just .063 (1-for-16). In the 1996 World Series, he hit .167 (4-for-24).
So, like Chipper, he may be due for a big World Series this time around.
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