| | It's probably an accurate assumption that the Astros will not be able to replace Mike Hampton.
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ASTROS LOWDOWN |
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|  | | Moises Alou finished third in the 1998 MVP voting. |
1999: 97-65
Runs: 823, 8th in NL
Allowed: 675, 2nd in NL
Key facts
Billy Wagner has set a major league record for most strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 50 innings) each of the past three seasons: 14.4, 14.6 and 15.0 in 1999.
The Astros drew 728 walks and gave up just 478. The 250-walk differential tied the 1969 Giants for best ever.
Craig Biggio's 107 doubles over the past two seasons were the most in a two-year span since 1937.
Tim Kurkjian's scenarios
Best-case: Enron Field provides a better hitting area for Jeff Bagwell, Moises Alou and Craig Biggio, Scott Elarton returns from arm problems and the Astros win their fourth straight division title.
Worst-case: Not enough pitching after the front two, no playoffs.
Prediction: 2nd in NL Central
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Sure, Jose Lima has had consecutive successful seasons, but it's hard to envision him as a cerebral staff ace. Yes, Shane Reynolds has the stuff and demeanor to be an ace, but he still doesn't give the Astros the left-handed presence of Hampton. Octavio Dotel had his moments with the Mets last season and could be a future ace. Scott Elarton has a great arm, but it's not healthy enough to open the season in the rotation.
Besides, the Astros pitching staff is about to enter unchartered territory. No longer will they work in the comfortable confines of the Astrodome, where balls used to die in outfield gaps. Instead, they will be placed in hitter-friendly Enron Field, a retractable state-of-the-art dome.
That means scoring, a problem for the Astros last season, should be up even though they have lost one of their top run producers. Unlike Hampton,
Carl Everett's 108 RBI can be replaced by the return of Moises Alou, who
will battle it out with Atlanta's Andres Galarraga for Comeback Player of
the Year.
Alou's 1999 season was lost to a couple of freak knee injuries. The first one occurred while he was running on a treadmill before the start of the
season. With the Astros fighting off the Reds for their third consecutive division title, it seemed as if Alou might be able to make a return in time
to help them for the stretch run and in the postseason. Then, he fell off his bike while playing with his kids and aggravated the torn anterior cruciate
ligament.
The second injury didn't require surgery, but it ended all hope of his return.
It will be interesting to see how Alou, 33, returns after a one-year absence. His success is critical for the Astros, a team whose window of opportunity to win a world championship is slipping away even as they enter their posh new ballpark.
A lot of people believe the Reds and Cardinals caught and passed the Astros this winter. But if Alou can return and duplicate his 1998 numbers
(.312, 38 homers and 124 RBI), there's no reason the Astros cannot win a fourth straight division title.
Jeff Bagwell hit 42 homers last year, but only 12 of those came in the Astrodome. Don't be surprised if he ends up with more home runs that Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Craig Biggio is still the game's best leadoff hitter, Roger Cedeno adds incredible speed to the lineup and Billy Wagner is one of the game's best closers.
Yes, the Astros lost an ace this winter, but they haven't lost hope.
-- Bob Brookover
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Lineup comments and grades from ESPN The Magazine
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Player
|
Comment
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Grade
|
|
C. Biggio, 2B
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Third season with 50-plus doubles. Only Tris Speaker (five) has more
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A
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R. Cedeno
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Breakout year quieted even L.A. doubters. But he may lack discipline for two hole
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B
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J. Bagwell, 1B
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Has most NL MVP votes (965) in last six years, six more than Piazza
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A
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M. Alou, RF
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Missed a year? He could sit out five years and hit line drives the first day back
|
A
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K. Caminiti, 3B
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Too many takeout slides and headlong dives have worn down this warrior's body
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C
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R. Hidalgo, LF
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Complete player, but platoons with Daryle Ward, who has too much power to sit
|
B
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Eusebio/Bako, C
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Rookie Mitch Meluskey could come up if this platoon fails
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D
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Tim Bogar, SS
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Won't hit much, but makes the routine plays and gets to balls in the hole
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D
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Pitching comments and grades from ESPN The Magazine
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Pitcher
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Comment
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Grade
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Jose Lima, SP
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ERA has dropped the last five seasons: 13.50, 6.11, 5.70, 5.28, 3.70, 3.58
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A
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S. Reynolds, SP
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Averaged 5.32 strikeouts per walk last year, best ratio in NL
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B
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S. Elarton, SP
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Big-time talent will miss the first month rehabbing right shoulder
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B
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O. Dotel, SP
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Great arm, stuff. But will he be spooked by Enron power alleys?
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C
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Jay Powell, RP
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He and Jose Cabrera bring needed strikeout stuff to jams in late innings
|
A
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B. Wagner, RP
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Think lefties (.167) find him tough? They're just happy they're not righties (.128)
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A
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