| | ESPN.com
For their third season, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have replaced the artificial turf at Tropicana Field. By midseason, the path between the home dugout and the pitcher's mound might already be worn out.
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DEVIL RAYS LOWDOWN |
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|  | | Juan Guzman and the pitching staff must keep the score down. |
1999: 69-93
Runs: 772, 11th in AL
Allowed: 913, 13th in AL
Key facts
Jose Canseco hit 31 of his 34 home runs prior to the All-Star break last year.
Roberto Hernandez recorded a career high 43 saves in '99.
Fred McGriff's 32 homers last year were the most he hit since 1994 when he had 34.
Tim Kurkjian's scenarios
Best-case: Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla, Jose Canseco and Fred McGriff combine for 150 home runs, which gets fans interested.
Worst-case: The D-Rays break the major league record by the 1930 Phillies by losing 10 games in which they score at least 10 runs.
Prediction: 5th in AL East
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Sure, the Rays may score runs in bunches. To a team that already featured sluggers Jose Canseco and Fred McGriff, the Devil Rays added Vinny Castilla (trade) and Greg Vaughn (free agent). After hitting just 145 homers as a team last year -- only the Twins hit fewer in the AL -- the Rays could well lead the American League in homers; the aforementioned foursome hit 144 all by themselves.
But to what end? Tampa will sell more tickets, because the last few years have demonstrated that chicks aren't the only ones who dig the long ball. Nothing packs more people into a ballpark than homers (besides winnings, that is), and that's no small consideration after the club suffered a huge dip in attendance after the novelty of the first-year franchise dissipated.
If the Devil Rays think that power is the way to win, they might be in for a surprise. Seattle led the league in homers last year and finished third in a four-team division. The Detroit Tigers hit three more homers than the Cleveland Indians, but finished a full 27½ games back where it counted -- in the standings.
Pitching will determine Tampa Bay's success and the picture here isn't encouraging. After Juan Guzman, the pitching is thin. John Burkett and Steve Trachsel were veteran free agent additions, but struggled last getting hitters out.
Wilson Alvarez, a bust in his first two seasons in Tampa, is again a physical question mark and Guzman has averaged fewer than eight wins over the last five seasons.
All of which is a shame since, in manager Larry Rothschild, the Rays have someone fully capable of developing young pitchers. But the organization's insistence on winning now -- with a envious eye cast on expansion brethren Arizona -- means that Rothschild's skills are being wasted.
Look for a lot of high-scoring, 10-9 games. And, look for the Devil Rays to lose more of those than they win.
-- Sean McAdam
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Lineup comments and grades from ESPN The Magazine
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Player
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Comment
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Grade
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G. Williams, CF
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Not a classic leadoff guy, but Braves went 52-21 with The Iceman up top
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C
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D. Martinez, RF
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Their best all-around outfielder may be trade bait come June
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C
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J. Canseco, DH
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One 100-RBI season since 1991. Nobody wants Tampa Bay to stay in AL more
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B
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Fred McGriff, 1B
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As long as his legs are healthy, can still power the ball to the alleys
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B
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Greg Vaughn, LF
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His enthusiasm and willingness to knock down middle infielders are contagious
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A
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Vinny Castilla, 3B
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Thinks getting away from Coors will stabilize his mechanics
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B
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John Flaherty, C
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Franchise linchpin as they develop young pitchers
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B
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Kevin Stocker, SS
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New turf at The Trop will help his legs. Catches what he reaches and turns DPs
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C
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Miguel Cairo, 2B
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Looks like character from Fear Strikes Out, with hands three inches apart on bat
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D
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Pitching comments and grades from ESPN The Magazine
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Pitcher
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Comment
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Grade
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W. Alvarez, SP
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Tends to stop throwing his fastball the first time someone gets a hit off one
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B
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J. Guzman, SP
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In 20 starts, good to brilliant. In other 10, get the long man ready early
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B
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S. Trachsel, SP
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Crossroads season for a horse with 15-game-winner stuff, but self-doubts
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C
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Ryan Rupe, SP
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From a near-fatal car crash in college to majors in one pro year -- a special dude
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C
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Esteban Yan, RP
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Larry Rothschild stretched his arm out this spring so he can start or go long
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C
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R. Hernandez, RP
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Will close big games this season. But not for D-Rays
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A
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