UFC 253 viewers guide: Undefeated rivals Adesanya, Costa perfect for 'Fight Island' showcase

Brett Okamoto, ESPN Staff WriterSep 26, 2020, 12:44 AM
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- MMA columnist for ESPN.com
- Analyst for "MMA Live"
- Covered MMA for Las Vegas Sun

You have to give it to the UFC. The promotion has pulled off this 2020 concept of "Fight Island" remarkably well, and I'm not just referring to stringent COVID-19 measures.

The UFC's pay-per-views this year on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, have offered a lot. From the "BMF" champion taking a title fight on six days' notice at UFC 251 in July to now a middleweight title fight between two undefeated stars in Israel Adesanya and Paulo Costa -- one can't ask for much more in terms of storylines and visuals.

And while the Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal main event in July turned into a bit of a dud in the cage, the middleweight main event of UFC 253 on Saturday really should be anything but. Just the visuals of a "skinny" Adesanya squaring off with a hulking Costa this week on an Abu Dhabi beach -- this fight was made for a place called "Fight Island," and it should deliver.

This matchup has felt inevitable, at least to me, since mid-2018, when I watched Adesanya (19-0, 8-0 in the UFC) size Costa up at UFC 226 in Las Vegas. Adesanya was granting interviews backstage when Costa came back following his victory over Uriah Hall. Adesanya wouldn't take his eyes off him, although I honestly don't think Costa (13-0, 5-0 UFC) even noticed at the time.

I remember thinking the two should fight back then as rising contenders, but the UFC let them both work their way up independently. That proved to be the right call, as we will now see only the second men's title fight in UFC history between a champion and challenger both with perfect records.

The matchup has taken on a personal undertone in recent years, which has generated some trash talk, but the real "beef" here from my perspective is simply that two guys recognized early on they were going to fight one day, and have kept an eye on one another as they've risen through the ranks.

And honestly, that to me is one of the best beefs that exist in MMA. A fundamental disagreement -- You're doing well for yourself, but I'm better. Don't forget that.

As much fun as Masvidal's late arrival to Abu Dhabi was in July, this main event -- a matchup that's been years in the making -- should eclipse it in terms of what we get on fight night. And while the storyline in the co-main is also intriguing -- our first look at a post-Jon Jones light heavyweight division, in a title fight between Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz -- I really do believe Izzy vs. Costa has a chance to be the fight we remember most when we look back on this "Fight Island" chapter in UFC history.

Middleweight championship:
Israel Adesanya (c) vs. Paulo Costa

Adesanya won the title last October with a TKO of Robert Whittaker and has defended it once, beating Yoel Romero by unanimous decision in March. Costa also beat Romero by decision in his most recent fight, in August 2019, but prior to that he had finished every opponent he had faced (11 knockouts, one submission).

By the numbers

8.43: Strikes landed per minute in the UFC by Costa, the most in the promotion's history.

65.5: Percentage of his opponents' significant strikes that Adesanya avoids, the second-best striking defense among active middleweights, behind only Marvin Vettori's 67.1%.

15:53: Average fight time for Adesanya, the longest of all time among UFC middleweights. Costa's fights average 7 minutes, 17 seconds, the fifth-shortest time among active 185-pounders.

1.65: Knockdowns per minute by Costa, the most among active middleweights. Adesanya is fourth, at 1.18. Overall, Adesanya has 10 knockdowns in the UFC, tying him with Yoel Romero for the second most among active 185-pounders, behind Anderson Silva's 13.

12: Brazilian fighters who have started their UFC run at 5-0, with Costa among them. Six of those fighters went on to win a championship: Jose Aldo, Renan Barao, Cris Cyborg, Junior dos Santos, Lyoto Machida and Anderson Silva.

Sources: ESPN Stats & Information research and UFC Stats

A look back ...

Five vs. five

Israel Adesanya's most recent results
Win: Yoel Romero (UD, March 7, 2020; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Robert Whittaker (KO2, Oct. 6, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Kelvin Gastelum (UD, April 13, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Anderson Silva (UD, Feb. 10, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Derek Brunson (TKO3, Nov. 3, 2018)

Paulo Costa's most recent results
Win: Yoel Romero (UD, Aug. 17, 2019; watch on ESPN+)
Win: Uriah Hall (TKO2, July 7, 2018)
Win: Johny Hendricks (TKO2, Nov. 4, 2017)
Win: Oluwale Bamgbose (TKO2, June 3, 2017)
Win: Garreth McLellan (TKO1, March 11, 2017)

Zero vs. zero: A UFC history

Saturday will be only the second time in UFC history that two undefeated men compete for a championship. The first was over a decade ago: Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida on May 23, 2009, at UFC 98 in Las Vegas.

Evans came into that bout at 13-0-1, having won the light heavyweight title from Forrest Griffin five months earlier, but really making his mark four months before that with a stunning KO of legendary ex-champ Chuck Liddell.

Machida was 15-0 but was given the title shot only because the UFC's planned challenger, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, injured his knee. Machida made the most of his opportunity, knocking down Evans in the first round and finishing him in Round 2 with a flurry of punches that sent the champ awkwardly to the canvas.

Although that's the only title showdown between unbeaten men, there have been several in the women's game -- all but one involving Ronda Rousey. During a stretch from February 2014 through November 2015, "Rowdy Ronda" defended her bantamweight title five times -- with all but one defense coming against an undefeated challenger.

On Feb. 22, 2014, at UFC 170, Sara McMann came in 7-0 and lost to Rousey via TKO at 1:06 of Round 1. At UFC 184 on Feb. 28, 2015, Rousey submitted 9-0 Cat Zingano in 14 seconds. On Aug. 1, 2015, at UFC 190, Rousey KO'd 9-0 Bethe Correia in 34 seconds. Then, on Nov. 15, 2015, at UFC 193, the 12-0 Rousey was felled by 9-0 Holly Holm's second-round head kick heard 'round the world.

The other championship fight between undefeated women: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, 12-0 at the time, defended her strawweight belt against 10-0 Karolina Kowalkiewicz on Nov. 12, 2016, at UFC 205. The champ retained her title via unanimous decision.

Dom and Gil's film study

Dominick Cruz breaks down Adesanya's footwork:

Gilbert Melendez on how Costa is like Mike Tyson:

And the winner is ...

It can be hard to gauge a fighter's confidence leading up to a fight. Sometimes an athlete puts up a good front, hiding the uncertainties underneath. Sometimes an athlete really is confident all week but loses it when the moment actually arrives. I will say this, though: Both Adesanya and Costa look supremely confident going into Saturday. Adesanya has said he'll make it look easy. Costa has told his team he predicts a first-round knockout. And I truly believe they both mean it. Costa is going to come with pressure I don't think Adesanya has faced in his UFC career, while Adesanya will counter with precision and technique Costa hasn't seen in his. I think it goes into the championship rounds, and Adesanya's experience and accuracy decide it. Adesanya via TKO, fourth round.

Light heavyweight championship:
Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz

This is a fight for the title longtime champion Jon Jones vacated in August. Reyes (12-1, 6-1 UFC) is coming off his only career loss, but that defeat in February came against Jones in a contest many believe the challenger won. Blachowicz (26-8, 9-5 UFC) has won his past three fights and seven of his past eight. He earned his spot in this title bout with a first-round knockout of Corey Anderson in February.