Olgs' Notebook: The kid who is bucking an NBL trend in a big way

Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem.

The kid bucking an NBL trend

When Karim Lopez first signed with the New Zealand Breakers as a Next Star back in August, a decision-maker from a rival NBL team texted through.

"'He's f---ing good, man," this person said, annoyed. "He might be one of the best Next Stars."

The 17-year-old Mexican entered the league with fascinating expectations; an obvious high-level prospect who would more-than-likely hear his name called quite early in the evening when the 2026 NBA Draft comes around, but still so unbelievably young. Sure, someone can be immensely talented -- and Lopez undoubtedly is -- but kids are rarely ever effective NBL players.

Well, Lopez is bucking that sentiment. The 6'9 wing is coming off three straight elite two-way performances for a Breakers team that's now somewhat comfortably atop the league's ladder with a 6-2 record.

Lopez posted 13 points, 10 rebounds, one assist, one steal, and two blocks against the Sydney Kings -- widely seen as one of the better teams in the NBL, who entered the game as a top-three defence -- before dropping 17 points and seven rebounds in a blowout win over the Adelaide 36ers.

The impressive stretch of games was capped off by yet another impressive line against a Melbourne United team most saw as the championship favourite, with the clear best defence in the league; Lopez finishing with 17 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, one steal, and four blocks in the Breakers' stunning blowout win on the road.

"I've been watching the NBL for a long time, and I can't remember a game that a Next Star did that many different things against this level of competition," ESPN's draft analyst, Jonathan Givony, told me on Tuesday morning, on Lopez's game against United.

"Impacting winning and making these kinds of contributions; filling up the boxscore in so many different ways. I can't remember another kid that did that. Usually these guys are bad players, the Next Stars -- they're not efficient, they don't rebound, they don't guard -- but he does all that stuff, which is insane, because he's only 17."

The counting stats are obviously impressive, but it's the indicators that have been most encouraging, both for short term success with the Breakers and for his long term career.

The form on his jump-shot is still a work in progress, but he's made a three-pointer in each of the last three games, bumping his efficiency up to 36.4% from downtown. That allows him to be an ideal complementary player alongside Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who's the current MVP frontrunner and best advantage creator in the NBL. With regard to the jump-shot, the free throw shooting should also lead to some optimism; he was 10-of-13 from the charity stripe against United on Monday.

Those are the swing things that will determine his ceiling, but the reason he's able to be effective right now is because of his ability to utilise his point of difference in the NBL, which is his size and athleticism.

"The scoring is probably going to be up and down this season, but the way he's able to impact the game defensively is incredible," Givony said.

"Just flying around like a madman, contesting everything at the rim, deflections, rebounds, and then pushing the ball off the glass. They're really running stuff through him, taking advantage of his passing ability. And then, just the physicality he's playing with.

"There were two plays where he just went straight through Chris Goulding. There was another play where I think he just went straight through Jack White. The same thing in the Adelaide game, going straight through Jarell Martin. These are grown men. You don't usually see a 17-year-old finishing through contact, drawing fouls, bringing that level of physicality and intensity.

"That's usually the part of the game that needs to improve the most with a 17-year-old, and he's already got that. I think that's what makes him so playable in this league, because it's such a physical league. That's where most young players struggle; they're not used to this type of intensity, and speed of the game, and he is clearly.

"Some of these extension finishes where he's palming the ball with one hand and pushing the guy off with the other, that's special; you don't find that anywhere."

It's early in the season, and did we mention how young he was? There'll be bumps in the road because there always is. What's ominous, though, is that we all knew what Lopez was supposed to be in 12 months' time, but he's already showing glimpses -- and some -- of it right now, on a team that's winning games.

That's the scariest, most interesting part of this: how high could that ceiling be?

Adelaide's concerning defensive issues

The signs of life from the Adelaide 36ers have been a lot of fun, but their main deficiency is the kind that makes it reasonable to consider them just a good-enough team, and not quite a real championship contender.

We can start with the good. Obviously Montrezl Harrell (19.7 ppg and 10.1 rpg) and Kendric Davis (20.4 ppg and 5.8 apg) have been extremely productive, making the most of their extremely high usage -- both are in the top-six in the league -- by putting points on the board for the fourth best offence in the league right now. They are, at the very least, a fun team to watch; and, at most, a seemingly high-powered offensive team that has self-creation from enough positions to make them a scary one to go up against.

The defensive end is extremely concerning, though.

It's concerning enough that, if there isn't a substantial shift on that end, then it's tough to put them in a tier with some of the other teams we'd consider title contenders.

Right now, the 36ers are conceding 118.1 points per 100 possessions, which is good for bottom-two in the NBL, and well below the league average of 112.2. The Cairns Taipans are the team below them (119.1 DRtg), but have been missing the bulk of their starters for some time.

The eye test tells us a few things. The guys on the perimeter have struggled to contain the point of attack, often leaving the bigs to fend for themselves; opposing teams are shooting 66% at the rim against the 36ers, according to SpatialJam, which is bottom-two in the league. Mike Wells feeling the need to play his two-big lineup for bulk stretches also makes it tough to guard perimeter-heavy lineups; Harrell and Jarell Martin, for example, aren't built to stay in front of quicker wings.

Saturday's game against the Breakers was particularly bad, from a defensive standpoint. The 36ers had a Defensive Rating of 143.1 in that contest, allowing a heap of penetration from both Jackson-Cartwright and the Breakers' bigs; Petteri Koponen's team was 21-of-24 (88%) at the rim.

It's become widely accepted in the NBL that, if you have an above-league-average defence, then there's a considerable chance you'll finish in the top half of the ladder by the end of the season, and we've consistently seen the best two defensive teams match up in the Championship Series. It's effectively a non-negotiable for long-term success in the NBL, so it's something this 36ers team needs to shift in a significant way if they're to be considered a serious contender.

Of course, Tasmania's offensive issues linger

The JackJumpers' issues are on the other end of the floor.

This is something we've touched on in this column before, so it's not worth harping on too much, but there's value in noting it's something the team hasn't done anything to remedy.

At least, not yet. The decision-makers within that franchise are still engaged in internal discussions regarding a potential change to bolster the team's offence, sources told ESPN, so we're in a holding pattern until that eventuates, assuming it does.

There are no impact Australians the JackJumpers can swoop in and get at this point, so all eyes will be on if they have to sacrifice one of their imports -- likely Craig Sword -- for someone who fills a more pressing need.

Against the Sydney Kings on Sunday afternoon, the JackJumpers fell 88-60, putting up their lowest score in franchise history. The team was only able to muster 27 second-half points. Clint Steindl hit a short corner jumper with 6:41 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, and the JackJumpers didn't score another field goal for the rest of the game.

The advanced numbers over the season for the JackJumpers speak for themselves. Scott Roth's team is last in both Offensive Rating (98.6 points per 100 possessions) and True Shooting (48.4%), with no real signs of improvement.

"We've had open shots early on, and they just don't go in and then that snowballs into: we just can't make anything... that can really open the floor up a little bit," Roth said postgame on Sunday. "The grind is the grind, and we'll just keep pushing through."

How good can Ben Henshall be?

In the immediate aftermath of the Perth Wildcats' Friday night win over the Illawarra Hawks, an NBA scout texted through.

"I told you so," the scout told ESPN.

This tracks back to a conversation we had at the end of 2023, where we discussed who the best prospect not named Alex Sarr in the NBL was. The usual names came up. Alex Toohey, Rocco Zikarsky, and AJ Johnson were all mentioned; as was Henshall, who this scout said was the most interesting prospect in the league.

Henshall's impressive NBL Blitz saw his name re-emerge in conversations among NBA people, and Friday's performance -- a career-high 26 points, shooting 5-of-8 from downtown, with six assists and only one turnover -- added to the intrigue.

Henshall is a 6'5 combo guard, who's still just 20, with a unique knack for scoring the ball. He showed off the whole range against the Hawks, finishing at and around the rim, shooting off the catch, and demonstrating some of his impressive self-creation. The defensive deficiencies that have been issues in the past have been alleviated enough to not harp on them too much, allowing the elite offensive feel to come to the forefront of conversations.

The next step for Henshall is then consistency. He gets some grace because he's just 20, but NBA teams want to see him string multiple quality games together in order to continue getting serious about him as a prospect.

Favourite plays of the week

The adjustment in the air here from Sean Bairstow was really impressive. He made sure to get that defender committed to him before lobbing it up to Freddie Gillespie for the dunk.