MIAMI (AP) -- The balance of power in the NFL's toughest division might be about to shift.

If the Indianapolis Colts win Sunday at Miami, they'll take control of the AFC East race and command consideration as a Super Bowl contender. If the Dolphins lose, title talk in Miami will be superseded by speculation that the Dan Marino era is about to end.

The Colts are on the rise, and Marino is in decline. But the Dolphins aren't yet ready to concede the future -- much less Sunday's game.

"We know we've got to win this one," defensive end Trace Armstrong said. "We know the magnitude."

A victory by the Colts (9-2) would give them a two-game lead in the tough AFC East. Miami (8-3), which shared the NFL's best record just three weeks ago, would likely be left to scramble for a wild-card berth.

The Dolphins are trying to make the playoffs for the third year in a row. Indianapolis finished 3-13 each of the past two seasons, so for coach Jim Mora's young Colts, a December showdown is a new experience.

"The pressure is on them," Miami defensive end Jason Taylor said. "Everyone loves to see who is going to perform under pressure, and this is where it starts."

The pressure will also fall heavily on the 38-year-old Marino, who is struggling to recover from a pinched nerve in his neck. After returning to the lineup on Thanksgiving Day at Dallas and throwing five interceptions in a 20-0 loss, Marino's job could be in jeopardy.

It was once unthinkable, but a poor start Sunday could force coach Jimmy Johnson to yank the most prolific passer in NFL history.

"There's pressure every week, no matter what the situation," Marino said. "That's part of the position. Last week I did struggle, but that's gone. I'm going to play as hard as I can to help this team win this week."

With Marino's future in question, a Dolphins defeat could also signal the end is near for the Johnson era. He considered retirement in January before returning for a fourth season in Miami.

Johnson has often stressed the need for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs. Both may be beyond reach with a loss Sunday.

"Our team is now at a critical point in the season," he said.

Ditto the Colts. They've won seven consecutive games, but a win over Miami -- on the road, late in the season, against a perennial contender -- would still represent a breakthrough.

"I see the Dolphins as a more experienced team, a team that has experienced success more than our team, a team that everybody picked to be a Super Bowl candidate this year," Mora said. "Nobody looked at our team that way. This week we're facing our biggest challenge of the season. It's a very meaningful, important game for us."

Miami beat the Colts 34-31 on Oct. 10 despite Peyton Manning's three touchdown passes. That's the most recent loss for an Indianapolis team that touts the AFC's most diverse and dangerous offense.

Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison lead the AFC in passing, rushing and receiving yardage, respectively. The young trio gives Indy a chance to dominate the division for a long time.

"It looks like it's going to be a great team for a while," James said.

A victory Sunday would confirm as much.

The Dolphins know it.

"It's as big a game as we've played here in the last couple of years," Marino said. "That's for sure."

INDIANAPOLIS Season schedule and results

MIAMI Season schedule and results

September 12 Buffalo W 31-14 September 19 @New England L 28-31 September 26 @San Diego W 27-19 October 10 Miami L 31-34 October 17 @NY Jets W 16-13 October 24 Cincinnati W 31-10 October 31 Dallas W 34-24 November 7 Kansas City W 25-17 November 14 @NY Giants W 27-19 November 21 @Philadelphia W 44-17 November 28 NY Jets W 13-6 December 5 @Miami 1:00pm ET December 12 New England 1:00pm ET December 19 Washington 1:00pm ET December 26 @Cleveland 1:00pm ET January 2 @Buffalo 1:00pm ET

September 13 @Denver W 38-21 September 19 Arizona W 19-16 October 4 Buffalo L 18-23 October 10 @Indianapolis W 34-31 October 17 @New England W 31-30 October 24 Philadelphia W 16-13 October 31 @Oakland W 16-9 November 7 Tennessee W 17-0 November 14 @Buffalo L 3-23 November 21 New England W 27-17 November 25 @Dallas L 0-20 December 5 Indianapolis 1:00pm ET December 12 @NY Jets 4:05pm ET December 19 San Diego 1:00pm ET December 27 NY Jets 9:00pm ET January 2 @Washington 4:15pm ET

Records source: STATS, Inc.

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