I got a text from a buddy a couple of weeks ago. Broncos fan. Watches college football casually. He wanted to know why Cam Ward (Miami) had so clearly become the consensus top quarterback in the 2025 NFL draft over Shedeur Sanders -- a player who, every time he watched Colorado, seemed to always have the big throw in his bag, always escape the sack, always lift the team and strap it to his back.
It was a fair question. Throw out all the trappings of the scouting process -- traits and developmental arcs and personalities and leadership and culture fits and scheme fits and other buzzwords -- and Sanders looks like a really good pro quarterback. His dad, Deion, taught him a thing or two about that -- and he can clearly play the position well. Of all FBS quarterbacks since 1956 who attempted at least 875 pass attempts, only one completed more than 71% of his passes: Sanders (71.8%).
But as my buddy texted me, Sanders' slide in mock drafts was beginning -- not just to the clear second quarterback selected after Ward, but into a muddled race for that spot. Three weeks ago, ESPN BET had Sanders listed at -1600 to be the No. 2 quarterback selected, an implied probability of about 94%. Now, he's down to -280 -- an implied probability of around 74%. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) is gaining steam, but behind him is Jalen Milroe (Alabama) -- a surprise invitee to the draft in Green Bay, Wisconsin, usually an honor withheld for likely first-round picks. Draft analyst Field Yates' bold prediction for the top of the draft is that Sanders won't be the second quarterback off the board.
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It feels like Sanders is falling down draft boards. But draft slides are often more media concoctions than reflections of reality for two reasons. The first is that players don't really "fall" during the draft process, except for major events such as injury or poor athletic testing. Rather, the media's opinion on a player in January is mostly just that -- the media's opinion. Perhaps it is informed by a few casual conversations with decision-makers such as general managers and head coaches, who haven't yet watched the tape or met the individual, and by a few more conversations with scouts who have done that legwork, but don't get the final say. But the information in January is a trickle. By April, the tap opens. Good reporters extract the truth of how teams really see these players, and prospects "rise" and "fall" accordingly, as the media opinion correlates more closely to the league's opinion.
The second reason is that, despite those good reporters doing their due diligence, the media are often wrong. It is not hard to go year by year and find an example. For all of the quarterback-centric reporting, Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 to the Falcons last year still left everyone's jaws on the floor. Will Levis, Malik Willis and Matt Corral all attended the first nights of recent drafts and didn't hear their names until Day 2. The week of the 2018 draft, the Browns were choosing between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen until, suddenly, dark horse candidate Baker Mayfield took the spot.
So, Sanders might be falling. Dart might be the second QB selected, another team might trade up for Milroe and Sanders might hear his name called on Day 2. Or Sanders might not be falling, and he'll go in the top 10, where he was projected to go in January. We don't know, and we won't know, until Thursday.
What I can tell you is how Sanders plays. What he does well, and what he does poorly. What translates to the NFL, and what might limit him. And, of all those non-Titans teams that need a quarterback, I can tell you which are good fits for his game, and which wouldn't mesh with his style.
Jump to a section:
What Sanders does best, and where he struggles
What he needs around him to excel
Ranking his best fits: Where could he thrive?
Sanders, the player
Sanders gets called a lot of things -- clutch, playmaker, accurate, physically limited, risky -- and each has a kernel of truth. But before anything else, he has tremendous feel for the quarterback position. His sense of where space is in the pocket, where it is downfield and how to manipulate the rest of the players on that field is highly impressive.
Take this example: a critical scramble and first-down throw against North Dakota State from Week 1 last season. In the pocket, Sanders is under quick pressure. His left tackle loses on the outside rush, and the looper from the right easily slips between the center and the left guard.