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Sometimes, the systems tasked with projecting college stars in the NFL spit out surprising results. Other times, it spits out chalk. That's the case with the edge rusher class for the 2024 NFL draft. The consensus top prospects are also projected to be the best at the position. My SackSEER projection system, which predicts how many sacks a player will have in their first five NFL seasons, ranks Dallas Turner, Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu as the top three prospects this year -- the same order as Scouts Inc.'s draft rankings. The rest of the ranking, however, shows there are some big differences between SackSEER and the scouting consensus. What follows is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects, according to projected NFL success, plus similar comps to prospects from past drafts and a sleeper to watch:
 
1. Dallas Turner, AlabamaSackSEER projection: 26.3 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts Inc.: No. 6 overall
Similar historical prospects: Von Miller, Vic Beasley Turner comes out as the top prospect in the Explosion Index that combines various combine drills. He led all edge rushers in the 40-yard dash at 4.46 seconds, had the highest vertical jump at 40.5 inches and was close to the top in the broad jump at 10-foot-7. Turner also tops all other prospects in the SRAM metric, as he had 10 sacks as a junior and, more impressively, 8.5 sacks as a freshman in 2021. What's holding Turner's projection down is his low total of passes defensed. Passes defensed is a good indicator of pass-rush ability, as it shows a player's skill to get up and slap down the ball when close to the quarterback. Turner only had one in three seasons. When looking for similar historical prospects, I couldn't find any similar to Turner in weight, sack stats and combine drill performance but also very low in passes defensed. (Miller had five in his junior year, for example, plus an interception as a senior.)
2. Jared Verse, Florida StateSackSEER projection: 24.4 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts Inc.: No. 15 overall
Similar historical prospects: Nick Perry, Joey Porter Sr. Verse had nine sacks in each of his two seasons after transferring to Florida State from Albany. He ranked fourth in this class in the Explosion Index based on combine drills -- he posted a 4.58-second 40, a 35-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-7 broad jump. He's held down a little in the projections by a relatively slow 3-cone time of 7.31 seconds.
 3. Laiatu Latu, UCLASackSEER projection: 23.4 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts Inc.: No. 16 overall
Similar historical prospects: Aldon Smith, Mathias Kiwanuka Latu's combine performance was unimpressive in the jumps, with a below-average 32-inch vertical and an average 9-foot-8 broad jump. However, he comes in a close second to Turner in SRAM because he had 10.5 sacks as a junior in 2022 followed by 13 sacks as a senior in 2023.
 4. Chop Robinson, Penn StateSackSEER projection: 21.2 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts Inc.: No. 25 overall
Similar historical prospects: Jevon Kearse, Leonard Floyd What stands out most about Robinson is the 4.48-second 40 he ran at 254 pounds. He is second in the Explosion Index behind Turner. His collegiate sack totals are less impressive, as he had only four sacks last season and 5.5 the year before. But these aren't terrible numbers, considering he's coming into the NFL after three college seasons.
5. Chris Braswell, AlabamaSackSEER projection: 13.8 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts Inc.: No. 42 overall
Similar historical prospects: Jordan Jenkins, Bobby McCray Braswell is a disappointment in the SackSEER projections. He did poorly on the vertical (33.5) and broad jumps (9-foot-7) at the combine. He had almost no playing time until his senior season in 2023, so while he did have eight sacks as a senior, only getting 2.5 sacks the rest of his college career leads to a low SRAM. Maybe it's understandable that he played less, given the presence of Will Anderson Jr. as the featured pass-rusher for the Crimson Tide until Braswell's final season. But when you have a senior without outstanding workouts or production, is that player worth drafting in the first two rounds?
 6. Darius Robinson, MissouriSackSEER projection: 13.0 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts Inc.: No. 27 overall
Similar historical prospects: Charles Omenihu, Ikaika Alama-Francis Here's another player SackSEER is down on, but this one is a bit more complicated. Robinson is much less of a prototypical edge rusher than Braswell. He's 285 pounds, much larger than most edge rushers in the NFL. So yes, Robinson has less sack production in college -- he had only 4.5 sacks through his first four seasons before getting 8.5 as a redshirt senior in 2023 -- but that wasn't always his job. Robinson was originally a defensive tackle at Missouri and can be versatile, moving back and forth from tackle to edge (or playing a 5-tech tackle in a 3-4 scheme). Robinson might be a player teams are looking at more as a run-stopping end who powers his way to the occasional sack rather than strictly being used to get to quarterbacks off the edge. SackSEER is not scoring Robinson on that versatility, so it's probably underrating him. The sleeper Jalyx Hunt, Houston Christian
SackSEER projection: 13.8 sacks through five NFL seasons
Scouts, Inc.: No. 165 overall
Similar historical prospects: Antwan Barnes, Anthony Hargrove Hunt is the clear sleeper for this year's draft. Yes, he played against inferior competition at Houston Christian, which is in the FCS Southland Conference, and he only had four sacks last season. But do you think Hunt ever saw a passing down without a double-team? Hunt was a cornerback in high school and a safety at Cornell before transferring to Houston Christian and moving to edge rusher. He still has a lot to learn but could develop nicely if well-coached. Oh, and that history as a defensive back means you can drop him into coverage a bit, too. When looking for a sleeper in the later rounds, skilled prospects from smaller schools are a much better bet than players from top programs with poor production, workouts or injury history -- the other reasons players fall to Day 3. Hunt is 6-foot-4 with 34-inch arms and had the third-best Explosion Index at the combine behind only Turner and Chop Robinson, with a particularly impressive 10-foot-8 broad jump.
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