Judging biggest overreactions for NFL Week 11 games

I'm not entirely sure what was going on in Detroit on Sunday afternoon, but it sure seemed like Lions coach Dan Campbell was overreacting to something. Maybe the Lions were mad about almost losing to the Texans last week. Maybe they didn't like that a week had gone by without anyone talking up Jared Goff for MVP. But whatever it was, the Lions absolutely poured it on against the Jaguars, continuing to throw the ball in the second half even once they were ahead by four (and then five) touchdowns.

When the smoke cleared and the final whistle mercifully blew, the Lions had beaten the Jags 52-6 to improve to 9-1 for the season. It's the second time in four games that the Lions have scored 52 points, and it improved their league-best point differential to plus-159, which means they're outscoring their opponents by an average of 15.9 points per game. (The second-best point differential in the league is Buffalo's plus-106.)

So now talk of Goff for MVP can start up again, especially after Lamar Jackson lost to the Steelers, and that three-day run of "Are the Eagles the best team in the NFC?" was fun while it lasted. And it's also probably only fair that we start Week 11 overreactions -- where we judge a few potential takeaways as legitimate or irrational -- with the most basic one we can think up.

The Lions are going to win the Super Bowl

The level of domination the Lions are inflicting right now is hard to put into perspective. Sure, it was the dead-in-the-water Jaguars they did this against Sunday, but that doesn't mean it wasn't impressive. The Lions set franchise records for margin of victory (plus-46), total yards (645) and total first downs (38).

Detroit also scored touchdowns on each of its first seven offensive possessions Sunday. The Lions are only the third team in the past 45 years to do that, according to Elias Sports Bureau. The other two are the 2009 Patriots and 2007 Patriots -- a team you might remember won every game it played that season until the Super Bowl.

The Lions aren't going undefeated, because they lost to the Buccaneers way back in Week 2. But the way things are going, they could match the 2007 Pats' record for wins in a regular season. They still have home games left against the Packers, Bills and Vikings and a road game in San Francisco, along with two games against the Bears and next week's trip to Indianapolis. So it's not the easiest-looking schedule we've ever seen. But considering Detroit is beating teams by two touchdowns per game, does the schedule matter that much?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Let me be clear: I believe the Lions are the best team in the league so far this season, and if the Super Bowl were next week and they were playing the Chiefs, I'd still pick the Chiefs to win. But that's just because of who the Chiefs are and how good they are at winning that final game.

That disclaimer out of the way, what's not to like about the Lions? Sure, it remains to be seen whether their pass rush, minus the injured Aidan Hutchinson, can finish games against top teams in the postseason. But other than that, their young secondary is playing well and their offense is a juggernaut. They can impose their will in the run game and obviously, as Sunday indicates, they can air it out with the best of them if necessary. The offensive line is fantastic, and that means the offense travels and can win in a number of different ways.

This is a team that had a 17-point halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco last season and is hungry to avenge that loss. And it looks like it is good enough to do so.

The Colts never should have benched Anthony Richardson

After their Week 8 loss in Houston, in a game in which their second-year quarterback famously asked out for a play because he was tired, the Colts took the starting quarterback job away from the No. 4 pick of the 2023 draft and handed it to veteran Joe Flacco. The idea was to give Richardson some time to get his head right and, ideally, give themselves a better chance to win games in the meantime.

Well, they did not. Flacco turned the ball over six times in games against Minnesota and Buffalo, and the Colts lost both of those games to fall to 4-6. So early last week, they announced they were going back to Richardson for the Week 11 game against the Jets. You can be forgiven if you have whiplash. Colts fans do, too. But then Richardson went 20-for-30 for 272 yards and a touchdown pass Sunday, while running for two more touchdowns. He was also 9-of-11 on passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield, per ESPN Research. And the Colts beat the Jets 28-27 to hang on the fringe of the AFC playoff race.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

It's easy to second-guess it now, but Richardson's play was in a pretty low place at the time of the benching, and he probably wasn't in the best possible position to deliver wins against the Vikings and Bills. Yes, of course it could have gone better with Flacco, but there's little reason to believe it would have definitely gone better with Richardson starting those games. And maybe he did need a couple of weeks to turn things around. Maybe the woebegone Jets were just a better team for him to face at this point than Minnesota or Buffalo.

Point is, Richardson looked like a different player Sunday. It was not perfect, of course. The missed throw on the two-point conversion attempt following the late go-ahead touchdown is a prime example of where he needs to get better and become more reliable. But if he's going to play the way he did Sunday, he's the one who gives them the best chance to win games. If the Colts had ridden it out with him the past couple of weeks, that might not be true. We'll never know, and Indy does have to play the Lions next week -- and that could look ugly. But moving forward, the hope for the Colts is that the benching was what Richardson needed at the time.

The Dolphins can still make the playoffs

After falling to 2-6 with a Week 9 loss to the Bills, Miami has won two games in a row -- last Monday against the Rams and Sunday against the Raiders. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back from his four-game stint on injured reserve due to a concussion, and while the offense might not look all the way like itself, it was more than good enough to beat Las Vegas (thanks to a big day from tight end Jonnu Smith).

The Dolphins are now 4-6. The division is obviously a runaway with Buffalo lapping the field, but the AFC wild-card race remains shockingly accessible. At the time Miami's game ended Sunday, the final wild-card spot in the conference belonged to the 5-5 Broncos, which means the Dolphins were only one game out of the playoffs.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Broncos, Colts, Bengals and Dolphins don't inspire much excitement, but the math says at least one of them will make this season's AFC playoff field. Miami is obviously combatting its well-earned reputation for second-half fades, and there are some trouble spots on the remaining schedule (including road games in Green Bay and Houston, plus a home game against the 49ers).

But with Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins have a shot to look like themselves on any given week. And if they can get Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle going, they have an offense that can be dangerous and a defense that's playing well for first-year coordinator Anthony Weaver.

It might not be the most daring or thrilling claim we've ever made in this space, but it is clearly quite possible that the Dolphins find themselves in the postseason following a 2-6 start to the season. And that would be awfully impressive regardless of who else is in the race.

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Bo Nix will win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Nix was incredible Sunday in a 38-6 victory over the Falcons, throwing four touchdown passes and completing 28 of 33 passes for 307 yards. He completed passes to nine different receivers. Denver had 400 yards of total offense and no turnovers, too. The Broncos scored touchdowns on three of their four first-half possessions and their first possession of the second half. It was an eye-opening performance by a team that had its heart ripped out a week earlier when the Chiefs blocked its winning field goal attempt in the final seconds.

Nix has nine touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and just one interception in his past four games. He has thrown two interceptions since Week 2. And since the start of October, Nix leads all rookies with 1,615 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns. The Broncos are 6-5 and currently occupy one of the AFC wild-card spots behind his play.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

For a while now, this award has looked like a lock to go to Washington's Jayden Daniels, who has been one of the great stories of this season. But Daniels has hit a bit of a rut lately, posting sub-40 QBRs in each of his past two games (both losses) while dealing with a painful rib injury. There are seven weeks left -- almost 40% of the season -- and that's plenty of time for early-season narratives to turn around.

If Washington and Daniels continue to struggle while Nix and the Broncos continue to ascend, this becomes a good race more quickly than people might realize. Take the vote right now, and Daniels probably wins it -- and deserves to win it. But the vote isn't for seven more weeks, and a lot can happen.

Bonus: This week's underreaction

This is the part where we flip the script and throw out something people are underreacting to right now -- something that's not getting the attention we think it should.

Matthew Stafford is playing really well in his 16th season

Stafford and the Rams flew across the country to play an early-window Sunday game the week after playing on Monday night, and they rolled over a Patriots defense that people keep insisting to me is better than we all think. Stafford was 18-for-27 for 297 yards and four touchdown passes, his second game this season with four TD throws. He was also 7-of-11 for 177 yards and three touchdowns on passes of at least 10 air yards.

The Rams have won four of their past five after a 1-4 start and are right in the mix in the four-team NFC West race. Having weathered the portion of the season in which top receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (and basically the entire offensive line) were out with injuries, Stafford and the Rams look primed for another second-half run and perhaps another surprise postseason appearance.