The NFL season's Week 11 -- the week that kicking died. Philadelphia's Jake Elliott missed (twice), Cincinnati's Evan McPherson missed (twice) and Baltimore's Justin Tucker missed (twice). Even Dallas' Brandon Aubrey missed (just once, he's still the GOAT). That's how this week will always be remembered -- not for the Steelers beating the Ravens again, nor for the Lions handing the Jaguars their worst loss in franchise history, nor for the undefeated Chiefs finally falling. But for the day that kicking died. Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll take a first look at the consequences of "Monday Night Football," break down a major trend or two, and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun. This week, we hand out report cards for four rookie quarterbacks -- Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix -- and size up what might be next for Daniel Jones after his benching. Let's jump in. Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: Rookie QB report cards
Second Take: Jones isn't finished as a starter
Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 11 stats
"Monday Night Football" spin The Big Thing: Rookie QB report cardsEvery week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? I'm handing out report cards today for the four rookie quarterbacks who are starters for their teams. This feels like the right time for a couple of reasons. First, Williams, Daniels, Maye and Nix are all on pretty significant trajectories in their young careers. This is the worst we've seen Daniels play and the best we've seen Nix play. Williams just had an offensive coordinator change, and Maye ... well, Maye has just been flat-out good the whole time. This is also the best time to talk about these four because I'm thinking about what this class might become. If all four become fine starting quarterbacks for their franchises -- something that is a reasonable expectation for each, given what we've seen this season -- then this is already an excellent QB class. If one or two end up as great-to-elite starters, as seems to be the case, then this 2024 quarterback class might be one for the history books. And that's before we've seen a start for the eighth (Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr.) and 11th (Minnesota's J.J. McCarthy) picks! What a treat! On each report card, I have reasons for faith, reasons for doubt and a letter grade. But don't yell at me about the letter grades until you have actually read the report cards! Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
2024 stats: 2,016 passing yards, 9 TD throws, 5 interceptions, 306 rushing yards Why there's reason for faith: Let's start here: Watch this throw from Sunday's loss to the Packers. This is a difficult throw. Corner routes can be thrown either on a line or on an arc, and throwing them with arc requires a lot of touch -- you have to get it over the sinking zone defender, but it can't float, or the safety will have time to get to the catch point. You also have to throw it to the upfield shoulder so the receiver can protect the catch point from the safety, and hitting that upfield placement is a lot tougher on a corner (when the receiver is running away from you) than on a deep cross or post route (where the receiver is running across your vision). This is sick, and it's why Williams was drafted first overall in April. He has every single club in his bag, every single arrow in his quiver. He is a special thrower of the football. Now, Williams has missed plenty of throws this season -- including a few layups on curl routes, speed outs and checkdowns. But we all know Williams, as well as 60 other quarterbacks in the NFL right now, can consistently hit those passes. They're easy, and when they're missed, it's often the product of some other issue -- pressure, jumpy feet, receiver miscommunication -- than a reflection on accuracy. While Williams' off-target throw rate is high this season (22.7%), I have total confidence in his capacity for accuracy. There isn't a throw he can't make; there is just a lot of stuff to clean up in the margins. Watch this throw on third-and-19 with the game on the line against Green Bay. Forget about the escape for a second -- we're going to talk about Williams' Houdini tendencies in a little bit -- and just focus on the throw he achieves on the run. Moving to his right at a high speed, Williams snaps his whole body into a laser beam against his momentum. The throw is accurate and (critically) so fast that it prevents the defensive back from playing on the catch point. This is the sort of play that made Aaron Rodgers a force for 15 years in this league. You can neither teach nor defend this. Other rookie quarterbacks in this class can do replications of this -- say, about 80% of this play. But they can't do this entirely. Williams isn't just trying to hit trick shots, too. He constantly hangs in the pocket (often to his own detriment) and tries to make progression plays late in the down. He puts faith in his receivers and play designs when he should perhaps get to a scramble. Williams has only three games this season with a scramble rate over 10% (the Packers game, Rams game and Commanders game when he was pressured on over 50% of his dropbacks). His willingness to execute the offense as written extends to the pre-snap operation, where he has been excellent this season. Williams regularly changes protections, flips playcalls or adjusts routes at the line -- all things that indicate the rookie has full command over the offense and its intricacies. Again, this might not be good for the Bears overall, as the design of the offense was so poor that it got offensive coordinator Shane Waldron fired midseason. But it is a good sign for Williams, who isn't just an incredible athlete masquerading as a quarterback. As such, many of the issues for Williams are calibration problems. He has so many clubs in his bag that he's often trying to do too much as a creator, thrower and line-of-scrimmage manager. A better offensive system in 2025, with hopefully better O-line and receiver play, will take some of the responsibilities off his plate, and he'll play faster and cleaner as a result. Why there's reason for doubt: Williams' highs this season are more than enough to hang his hat on, but there's no doubt the lows are extremely low. While other quarterbacks (young and old alike) see their negative plays expressed as cowardly checkdowns, panicked throwaways or prayerful 50-50 heaves, Williams' negative plays are much more devastating: sacks. He is currently taking a sack on 32.3% of his pressured dropbacks, which is behind only Will Levis this season. In the past five years, the list of quarterbacks who have had a season over 30% is not very encouraging: Now, Williams hasn't been pressured at a preposterously high rate this season -- 38.1% of his dropbacks is an above-average but not exceptional number. When Williams does get pressured, it comes from a variety of sources. He has 59 quick pressures on the season (under 2.5 seconds), 33 unblocked pressures and 15 extended pressures (plays longer than four seconds). Each of those is a top-five number in the NFL. The pressure issue for the Bears comes from everywhere. It was a schematic issue for Waldron, who struggled to scheme up clean pockets with additional bodies in pass protection or find quick and easy completions outside of the screen game. It's a personnel issue, too, as the Bears were giving up plenty of pressures to start the season along the offensive line and are now enduring plenty of injuries across the board. But Williams also creates his own pressure problems, and he has been doing so since college. Ever a big-play hunter who believes he can escape the first defender at every turn, Williams has the third-longest time to throw after a pressure (1.05 seconds) in the league. Instead of getting a rid of the ball when pressure arrives, Williams tries to escape. As Williams grows in the pros, there are three outcomes: He continues trying to escape every pressure as it appears. Short of being Lamar Jackson, this is not a tenable approach. At USC, Williams regularly out-quicked or out-muscled Pac-12 defenders in the pocket. In the NFL, it would appear he can do it only intermittently. Magical escapes will always be part of his game, but he needs to cut back on how often he attempts one. Williams learns how to erase sacks by throwing the ball (either away or to a receiver), which takes his sack rate from a worrying level to a high-but-acceptable level. This is hard to do. The only quarterback who comes to mind to have achieved meaningful change is Joe Burrow, who took his sack-to-pressure rate from 29.3% in 2021 down to 25.8%, then 25.0%, then 24.6% and now 18.8% this season. It's worth noting that Burrow and Williams have some similarities as magical playmakers. The 2021 version of Burrow believed, much like 2024 Williams does, that he could create an explosive play on nearly every down, if he could just get out of the pocket. As Burrow's O-line improved, he learned how to play more within himself. That improvement is in the cards for Williams, as well. Williams never learns how to stop taking sacks and accordingly always limits his offense. No amount of spectacular plays can outweigh a high sack rate, and plenty of QBs have never reached their ceilings for never learning that lesson. Bears fans should know that ... Justin Fields was one of them.
Because the infrastructure around Williams has been so dreadful, I'm willing to give him plenty of grace on the sack rate. But other young passers wouldn't have nearly the sack rate that Williams does if they dropped into this offense. Daniels would get away from more pressures. Nix would throw the ball away more. The environment is bad, but it's also bringing to light an aspect of Williams' game that was always going to require improvement. The report card: Williams has made plenty of the prototypical rookie errors in his season with the Bears. He'll spray on routine throws, get stuck on reads that he should have eliminated pre-snap and snowball bad plays into worse ones. But he has also shown several excellent traits and skills that are not typical of rookie quarterbacks at all. His high-difficulty throws can stack up against those of any elite QB in football. He has been given more command at the line of scrimmage than most young signal-callers get and has responded well. And he has done this in an offensive ecosystem that has seen bad line play compounded by injury and an offensive coordinator fired. With better play around him, Williams can clearly hang at the NFL level, and his ceiling will be defined by ironing out the snap-to-snap roller coaster he's currently riding. The grade: C+
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders2024 stats: 2,338 passing yards, 10 TD throws, 3 interceptions, 482 rushing yards Why there's reason for faith: On the season, Daniels is seventh in the league in EPA per dropback and eighth in success rate. He's also top 10 in adjusted net yards per attempt and Total QBR. It's easy to forget, because we in the NFL media have the memories of goldfish, but as of last month, he was on a fairly historic rookie quarterback pace. Even now, here's how Daniels' rookie year stacks up with all rookie quarterback seasons since 2010: second in success rate, sixth in EPA per dropback, seventh in first-down/touchdown rate and fifth in Total QBR. Only Dak Prescott was better by success rate, while Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Justin Herbert were the five better in EPA. The numbers are telling us that Daniels is going to be a good QB in this league for as long as he stays healthy. And so is the film. Daniels' elusiveness and acceleration are well known and need no demonstrations, and at LSU, he threw a beautiful deep ball up against the sideline. But in the NFL, Daniels has shown an ability to throw receivers open in the middle of the field that was not often displayed during his time with the Tigers -- and it has been critical to the success of the Washington passing game. Watch Daniels hit Noah Brown on the deep over on the three-step drop, calmly layering it over the sinking Giants linebacker but making sure it arrives before the corner can peel back into the play. Daniels also pulls his receiver away from the corner with the ball placement. Because the linebacker's back is turned, he can't locate the football and play on the catch point. That's advanced ball placement. If he can do that while also consistently hitting nine balls against man coverage and presenting a serious running threat on any given dropback ... I mean, what more can you ask for? Also of critical note for Daniels' success has been his poise. All three of Williams, Maye and Nix have had games this season in which the opposing defense has really gotten under their skin and frustrated them -- if not for the full game, then at least on a key drive or two. That really hasn't happened to Daniels, even in the Commanders' losses. I've yet to see a moment become too big for him, and if the Commanders make the playoffs, that cool head will be a big help. Why there's reason for doubt: Daniels' play has tailed off in recent weeks. Of course, the rib injury has something to do with that -- even if Daniels is no longer feeling any discomfort, as coach Dan Quinn insisted this week. Here's Daniels' production split from before and after his rib injury he sustained in Week 7 against the Panthers. You can't tell me something isn't afoot. Now, he has played some good defenses since the injury, including Chicago, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, so we might just be dealing with a small sample. We might also be dealing with the yearly decline of the Kliff Kingsbury offense. And we might be dealing with general statistical regression; the Commanders were converting third-and-longs at an impossible clip to start the season. I'm confident that the rib injury has some impact on Daniels' play, but we won't know exactly how much until we get through the season and watch him continue to play in healthier weeks. One of the concerns I had with Daniels entering the NFL was how his frame and play style would translate. Independent of the injury, Daniels' play has been electric, though not without its warts. Any quarterback scrambling 25.9% of the time when pressured, as Daniels is, will inevitably leave some plays on the field as he drops his eyes and looks to run. By the way, that 25.9% is the highest number for any QB since 2009, which is as far back as we have data -- and second place is only 22.7% (Justin Fields in 2022). It isn't inherently bad to default to scrambling when pressured, especially when you're as impossibly fast as Daniels. But it is predictable and can leave meat on the bone. Watch this play against the Eagles. It's third-and-6, and Daniels wisely climbs the pocket after it quickly gets muddy. There are two Commanders receivers -- running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Zach Ertz -- open for guaranteed first downs. It seems like Daniels sees them (or at the very least Ertz), given how his helmet scans the field. But Daniels pump-fakes and runs right into linebacker Nakobe Dean, who is focused on taking away the Daniels scramble over prioritizing coverage. If your quarterback is actively processing but willing to scramble, your offense becomes very dangerous on broken plays. However, if the defense knows he needs the scramble to survive, the offense becomes predictable, and big plays can be left on the field. This was always going to be something for Daniels, who had wild college scramble rates, to improve on in the pros. Unfortunately, it's not the sort of thing that just gets flicked like a switch. Teams will continue trying to bait Daniels into relocating the pocket and getting on the move. Sure, he will burn them with his legs on occasion, but that's better than enduring coverage busts when Daniels inevitably escapes sacks in the pocket. The maturation needed from Daniels is to be expected. But meanwhile, the production has been levels ahead of what we expect from rookie passers. So it's tough to get too upset about anything for Daniels right now. It is worth remarking that Daniels' offense does have a pretty hefty set of training wheels attached to it. This is to be expected from a Kingsbury offense and is not at all a referendum on Daniels. But it is important when we contextualize his play with that of other rookies. Almost 40% of Daniels' dropbacks this season have come with either a screen or play-action fake; only Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa are seeing fewer true dropbacks than Daniels. The good news? On non-screen, non-play-action dropbacks, he's still third in EPA per dropback and sixth in success rate. The kid's good, no two ways around it. The report card: From a play-style perspective, Daniels is as billed. He's great throwing vertically, cool in the pocket and devastating as a runner both on designed plays and outside of structure. There will need to be some maturation as NFL teams increasingly force him to win from the pocket, but given the talent he has shown as a thrower this season, it's reasonable to expect him to grow with the game. From an effectiveness standpoint, he's levels above where most rookies are when they start in the NFL -- and without a great supporting cast. Hopefully most of his recent downturn is the result of a rib injury and those effects wane over time. The grade: A
Drake Maye, New England Patriots2024 stats: 1,236 passing yards, 9 TD throws, 6 interceptions, 260 rushing yards Why there's reason for faith: Maye currently leads the NFL in off-target throw percentage at 9.9%. Now, some of Maye's accuracy is the product of the ask in this offense. To account for a shaky offensive line in pass protection, Maye is averaging only 6.8 air yards per attempt, and 22.1% of his dropbacks end with throws behind the line of scrimmage, the 10th-highest rate in the league. The Patriots run every quick-game concept under the sun -- slants and choice routes for DeMario Douglas, stick routes for Hunter Henry and fast routes out of the backfield for Rhamondre Stevenson -- as well as a deep menu of screen passes to manufacture explosive plays without holding up in pass protection. But even with the context considered, Maye's accuracy is eye-popping -- especially for a guy tagged with some footwork and mechanics concerns coming out of the college ranks. On throws of 10-plus yards downfield, Maye is ninth best in off-target rate, yet bottom five in EPA per dropback, success rate, explosive play rate and first-down/touchdown rate. If that doesn't tell you about the limitations of the Patriots' receiver room, I don't know what does. While the New England offense improved once Maye took over for Jacoby Brissett in part because of that accuracy, it hasn't even been the biggest area of improvement. That, instead, has been via Maye's play under pressure. Here are his stats when pressured compared to those of Brissett. So much of Maye's success when pressured has boiled down to two factors: his legs ... and everyone else's. Over 70% of Maye's passing yardage when pressured this season has come after the catch, but that isn't really a testament to scheme. Rather, it's Maye's ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately to players who have found space. Take this throw to Douglas against the Rams on Sunday. Watch Maye buy a half-second in the pocket by drifting to his right, then make an accurate throw across his body while getting hit. Because Maye is still able to find Douglas while he's on the move, the quick receiver can create an explosive play after the catch. Maye is also creating explosive plays entirely on his own. No quarterback is averaging more rushing yards per game on scrambles than Maye (37.3). Among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles, Maye is second in explosive run rate and seventh in first down rate. He isn't as quick as Daniels or Williams, but he is big, and he has some actual speed when he gets into the open field -- more than defenders are currently giving him credit for. So let's sum up: Maye has been great under pressure, he's an excellent runner, and he's accurate to all levels of the field. This is happening with a below-average receiver room and remarkably below-average offensive line. Maye has done fewer spectacular things than Daniels, but in terms of net positive plays, he is right there with the Commanders rookie in terms of total optimism generated. (Yes, that's a made-up stat.) Why there's reason for doubt: It's hard to pick too many nits with Maye's game, both out of context and within it. But the big one is an obvious one, and the most common error for all rookie quarterbacks: He doesn't protect the football well enough. Maye has thrown six picks on 190 attempts, and while an interception rate of 2.6% is far from horrible, it is below average. Of Maye's six picks, two have come late in games that the Patriots were trying to win -- downfield against the Rams late in the fourth quarter and downfield in overtime against the Titans. Neither decision nor throw was particularly bad, but young quarterbacks always tend to try to win close games in one massive play. Part of growing up is learning how precious the football is, and while Maye's turnovers to this point are nowhere near perilous, the six picks (and three fumbles on sacks) have hurt his team in these close games. Other than that, I'm shrugging my shoulders. It'd be nice to see more downfield completions as the season goes on, but I'm not expecting it, as the Patriots have no field-stretching receivers nor the O-line to sustain long dropbacks. I know that Maye can uncork it based on his college film, and I'm confident that aspect of his game will return to the offense once the Patriots can actually sustain it. The report card: Maye has been everything the Patriots could have hoped for with the third overall pick. He's decisive, accurate, tough and explosive. He makes plays within structure and outside of structure, and he's maximizing a receiver room that would be challenging for many first-year signal-callers to elevate. The way he is erasing the impact of the leaky Patriots offensive line is particularly impressive and bodes extremely well for his future. Maye is liable to take a bad sack-fumble or throw a big pick, but you expect those plays to go away with time as he continues to adjust to NFL speed and coverages. The grade: A
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos2024 stats: 2,275 passing yards, 14 TD throws, 6 interceptions, 295 rushing yards Why there's reason for faith: What a stretch it has been for Nix! Over the past five weeks, Nix is ninth in EPA per dropback and 15th in success rate. That might not feel like anything to write home about, but given how poor he was playing beforehand -- 29th and 32nd, respectively -- this is an enormous relief for Broncos fans. Nix has done a nice job all season avoiding negative plays. He's a quick scrambler with one of the league's lowest sack rates, and he has a below-average interception rate to boot. The appeal of Nix, a six-year starter at the college ranks at Oregon and Auburn, was always that he would enter the NFL with veteran-like command over an offense, and he has absolutely delivered on that billing to start the season. While Nix was not heralded as a dual-threat player the way Daniels and Williams were, some of his best plays this season have come on the move. Nix keeps his eyes up when resetting his throwing platform and escaping pressure, which allows him to create quick, positive plays outside of structure. I thought the best play of his season to this point was the coulda-shoulda-woulda-been game winner against the Chiefs in Week 10, when he found Courtland Sutton late in the route while climbing away from pressure and leaping through the pocket. Nix's accuracy on extended plays has been critical as the Broncos have largely moved away from a quick-game style of offense and toward one with more fakes, misdirections, screens and prolonged dropbacks. Nix got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on at least 40% of his dropbacks in each of his first three games, but in the eight weeks since, he has done that only once. With the extended dropbacks come more vertical routes, which Nix is hitting all over the field. He had the beautiful nine ball to Sutton to score against the Chiefs, the terrible Troy Franklin drop against the Raiders and this seam ball to Adam Trautman against Carolina. While Nix dinked and dunked plenty during his time in Oregon, he does have the ability to drop vertical routes into buckets, and the Broncos are increasingly unlocking that as the season goes on. If a team has a generally accurate quarterback who avoids negative plays and can create outside of structure, it can build a winning offense. Nix is still clearly more limited than the other three rookie passers here, who all either have much bigger arms, much faster movement or both. But Nix still clears every bar you need in order to stretch defenses. If he can remain as mistake free as he has been -- which, doing so as a rookie passer is very impressive, even with his collegiate experience considered -- while also continuing to be accurate downfield, the Broncos have a franchise quarterback. Why there's reason for doubt: There's a lot of statistical hype going around for Nix right now, and by statistical hype, I mean gross statistical output. Nix just had a 300-yard, four-touchdown, zero-interception game against the Falcons with a completion percentage over 80%, and he is the first rookie QB to ever have such a game. That's pretty cool! But counting stats are lying to you and have always lied to you. With no quarterback is that more true than Nix, who has accumulated dropbacks in a lot of blowout games (both as the leader and the trailer). In fact, Nix has 95 dropbacks this season in game states in which one team (either the Broncos or their opponent) has a win probability over 95%. He had 31 such dropbacks against the Chargers with a win probability of less than 5%, as the Broncos entered the third quarter down 23-0 before chopping their way back to a 23-16 loss. He had another 18 such dropbacks against the Ravens in a 41-10 loss. And against the Falcons, he had 10 such dropbacks, throwing for 96 yards and two scores. Playing in softened game states -- either in such a huge deficit that passing production doesn't really matter, or with such a huge lead that the opposing defense is selling out to try to create negative plays -- has inflated Nix's raw statistical output. Here's how he performs as a passer split by game state: Now, it isn't inherently bad to be getting a lot of dropbacks in these softened game states. In fact, it's good! Nix is getting reps, and the reps are clearly helping. But when we control for non-blowouts, we find that Nix is cellar-dwelling in just about every quarterbacking metric we have. Of 36 qualified quarterbacks, he's 31st in off-target rate, 31st in success rate, 32nd in first-down/touchdown rate, 24th in EPA per dropback, 24th in explosive pass rate and 25th in adjusted net yards per attempt. The poor early-season games are weighing on Nix's numbers, and he has truly played much better in recent stretches. But in so much as Nix has improved, so too have the Broncos done a better job with what they ask from him. On Sunday against Atlanta, 20% of his dropbacks targeted screen routes, including two of his four touchdowns; three of his four most screen-reliant games this season have come in the past four weeks. Play-action is ramping up, too, with four of his heaviest play-action games coming in the past five weeks. Nix has had two games this season in which a majority of his dropbacks have come with a screen and/or play-action fake, and one of them was this past game against the Falcons. Again, there is a game state consideration here. A team that is leading big will inherently call more play-action. But a 300-yard, four-touchdown day in which the QB averages only 4.0 air yards per attempt is a far bigger feather in the cap of the playcaller and offensive designer than it is the quarterback. As such, I'm not convinced that the perceived Nix improvement is much more than a happy storm of soft pass defenses and sharp playcalling from Sean Payton. The Broncos' offense has gotten better as Nix has been asked to do less within it, not more. The straight dropback quick game has been replaced by designer plays that minimize his responsibilities after the snap. This isn't amazing news, as Nix has lost trust, but it can be good for his long-term growth. The Broncos have a base offense that works and can slowly return responsibilities to Nix's plate as he grows in confidence and processing speed. But we shouldn't expect to see the dominance of Daniels or the steady performance of Maye anywhere in Nix's game anytime soon. The report card: Nix has checked all the boxes he promised -- accuracy, decision-making, some creativity and plenty of poise. He's the trusty point guard that Payton wanted and needed to make his offense go. I'm heartened by the willingness to push the ball downfield and some of the accuracy on those throws, but I am suspicious of the ceiling of an offense built around screens and rollouts. The grade: B- Second Take: Daniel Jones will have a perfectly acceptable post-Giants careerESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view. The benching of Jones is one of those things you just shrug at as it goes by. Yeah, he was benched. It's not a season-saving move. It's not a surprising move. It's not going to have a meaningful impact on the team in either direction, negative or positive, in either the short or long term. This is what it looks like when a team is totally nowhere; it benches its franchise quarterback, and it doesn't really matter. Jones' benching is more of a bookkeeping move than anything else. Jones is cuttable after this season. He'll hit the Giants' cap for only $22.2 million in dead money if they cut him outright in 2025, which is a pittance for a quarterback and only half of his 2025 cap hit ($41.6 million) if he stays on the roster. But Jones would not be cuttable were he injured in action during the final stretch of the 2024 season, as $23 million of his $30 million base salary in 2025 is guaranteed exclusively for injury. The Giants are telling us that they envision a new starting quarterback for the team in 2025, which is far from surprising, in that they were openly pursuing Maye at the top of the 2024 draft mere months ago. As the sun sets on Jones' tenure as the Giants' starting quarterback, I feel worse about Giants general manager Joe Schoen than I do about Jones. Schoen extended Jones after his peak 2022 season, the first season for Jones under coach Brian Daboll -- a move that led to the franchise-tagging and eventual well-documented free agency of star running back Saquon Barkley. That 2022 season was pretty evidently fool's gold, and even if it wasn't, it was a pretty modest peak to invest in. After that investment, the Giants remained unable to buttress their offense with the necessary playmakers to succeed -- either with a second-contract veteran quarterback or a hapless rookie. The best player that Jones has ever thrown a pass to was Barkley. The second best? Maybe those 30 targets to 31-year-old Darren Waller, or perhaps the 119 to also-31-year-old Golden Tate? The hope is that Malik Nabers will end up being that guy, but it was too little too late at receiver. Jones will be 28 years old next season, still young enough that you can expect his mobility to remain a big part of his game for the next few seasons. He'll be as old with his next team as Baker Mayfield was when he joined the Buccaneers, and I can't help but wonder if Jones' career will follow the same arc. Mayfield bounced from the Panthers to the Rams before he ended up the bridge starter for the Bucs, but when he finally landed in Tampa Bay, he had multiple quality pass catchers, a great offensive line and an ascendent playcaller in Dave Canales. He took the lessons learned from a rocky first tenure in Cleveland and became a totally fine starter worthy of a midtier quarterback contract. I can see that future for Jones on a team with far better offensive infrastructure than he ever enjoyed with the Giants. I've heard the Jets mentioned, but I don't really like how that feels; Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will pull their weight, but what about the offensive line? Who is the playcaller? I'm also keeping my eyes on the Steelers (current running favorite), Titans and Browns. It doesn't have to happen next year for Jones, and it likely won't. We didn't know Sam Darnold would have the opportunity he has now in Minnesota until weeks before the season began. But this is not the end of Daniel Jones in the NFL, and while my expectations for him aren't high, I'm confident the next team he plays on will have a better environment for stable QB play than his Giants teams ever did. From y'allThe best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here. From Ben: "Thoughts on Jerod Mayo so far this year? Do you see improvement or just Drake Maye covering up issues? I always think first-year coaches should be given time and see an upward trend; people seem overly critical of every mistake. Thoughts?" I agree with Ben (real person, not talking to myself). I've seen some frustration with Mayo for defensive scheme rigidity, for how he has handled player effort and quality of play, and even for how he brought along Maye behind Brissett this season. I think there's fair spots to critique the QB plan, but I also get why the Pats wanted to protect Maye from this offensive line. I think some of the Ja'Lynn Polk frustration and wide receiver benching has gone too far, but I also understand the importance of setting a culture when you're stepping into shoes as large as the ones Bill Belichick left behind. In short, even those decisions Mayo has made that I don't love, I still find defensible. The Patriots have largely been more competitive this season than anyone expected, and now that they are competitive, there's angst over them not winning games. But we should remember the state of this roster, which was terribly mismanaged by Belichick in his waning years, especially as injuries have accumulated. Christian Barmore (blood clots) has obviously been absent for most of the season; star linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (torn pec) was lost for the year, as was center David Andrews (shoulder). Starting offensive linemen Cole Strange (knee) and Caedan Wallace (ankle) are both out, too. Pass rusher Oshane Ximines (knee), out. Safety Jabrill Peppers is on the commissioner's exempt list for domestic violence charges. An already thin roster has lost a lot of playing time this season. I'm not sure just how much I believe in Mayo, but I've also seen far too little of a meaningful sample to come away with any big conclusions. Give the Patriots time.
From Jacob: "How will the Lions adjust their scheme and game plan with all the front-seven injuries stacking up? They're down three LBs (two starters now and a critical rotation/ST player)." Man, I'm not too sure. I'm pretty confident the three best players on a healthy Lions defense are Brian Branch, Aidan Hutchinson and Alex Anzalone. We know the Lions won't have Hutchinson (tibia/fibula) for a playoff run, and now Anzalone's availability is in jeopardy, as he broke his forearm in the Week 11 win over the Jaguars. I'd feel better about the Lions' ability to coach around the Anzalone absence if not for the existing injuries to Derrick Barnes (knee) and Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck). With that said, I've been extremely impressed with the creativity of defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, whom I still believe should be as hot of a head-coaching commodity as offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been. The Lions have been blitzing and moving bodies along the defensive line in an effort to create pressure, and while they've found intermittent success, the stickiness in man coverage as the secondary remains healthy is what's really powering them. Veteran cornerback Carlton Davis III still has the goods, while rookie CB Terrion Arnold is playing better week over week as he eliminates some of the penalties from his game. Those two need to be stars, and fast. The Lions ran really hot with injury luck last postseason -- it was a big part of their run. This year, it's a tougher mountain to climb.
From Dylan: "What does two weeks of the Jags' offense without Trevor Lawrence tell you about him?" Nothing I didn't already know. Good quarterback.
From Raccoon: "Who is leading in the clubhouse for DROY? Jared Verse, Quinyon Mitchell or a dark horse?" Verse is plenty deserving, but if I had a vote, it would be for Mitchell without hesitation. You don't see rookies become lockdown No. 1 corners to such a degree that they just don't get tested, like, at all. (But they don't give me a vote for a reason.)
From Steen: "Ideal head coach for the Bears next season? Let's say Ben Johnson is not an option." Of course, everyone will want an offensive coach, as the pendulum swings away from the defensive-minded Matt Eberflus if and when Chicago makes a change. I'm not sure I trust the body of work of any of the current hot playcallers -- Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen, Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady -- just yet. I don't love the game management of Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, though I do wonder how much of that approach is managed by coach DeMeco Ryans. Of the named guys, I think I'd like Petzing the best for the Bears. The Cardinals do really cool stuff, and stylistically, there's a solid comparison between Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams. But if Bears fans were willing to endure a defensive-minded coach, man, I would endorse Aaron Glenn to just about anyone. I think he's a great leader, has a good system and has the right mindset for building a team from his time in Detroit. I also think that Bears defense is an excellent unit and deserves a good defensive coach to continue building on what they've started there. So I'd take Glenn. (Get Tanner Engstrand, Lions passing game coordinator, in the building as the offensive coordinator, too.) Next Ben StatsNFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below. 50%: That's the percentage of the Lions' plays that went for first downs against the Jaguars on Sunday. They ran 76 plays and had 38 first downs. It's perhaps the most preposterous thing that has happened this season. Since 1933 -- which is as far back as Elias Sports Bureau tracks -- the Lions are only the second team to run at least 70 offensive plays and produce a first down on 50% of them. The 2013 Saints did it in a merciless shellacking of the Cowboys (40 first downs on 80 plays), which is probably a bit more impressive than doing it to the dispirited Jaguars. But still ... a 50% first-down rate is very, very hard to accomplish. The Lions put 645 yards on the Jaguars. They held the ball for 39 minutes. They scored 5.8 points per drive, which is the second most in a regular-season game in the past 45 years. They had seven consecutive touchdown drives to start the game and settled for a field goal on the eighth drive only because backups were in. This was the Lions' fourth game this season with more touchdowns than incompletions, and they are the first team since at least 1933 to have four such games in one season. We all saw the Lions' Sunday night game against the Texans in Week 10. No team in the NFL is immortal. But when the Lions face an inferior opponent, they are merciless. The 2024 Lions at their best is a level of offensive dominance that matches any recent juggernaut you want to name -- the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs, 2013 Broncos, all of them. The Lions have built the Death Star.
17: That's how many tight ends have ever had a game with 13 receptions in the regular season or postseason. The Raiders' Brock Bowers became the 17th this past Sunday against the Dolphins and the first to ever do it in his rookie season. Here are the other 16, with the Hall of Famers marked with an asterisk: Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Kellen Winslow*, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez*, Travis Kelce, Brandon Myers, Ozzie Newsome*, Mike Ditka*, Antonio Gates, T.J. Hockenson, Eric Johnson, Shannon Sharpe*, Logan Thomas and Darren Waller. If we (safely) assume that Kelce, Gates and Witten make the Hall of Fame, then about half of the tight ends to ever produce a 13-catch game are Hall of Fame players. Bowers is now on pace for 119 receptions and 1,200 yards. While both would certainly break the rookie tight end records (1,076 yards by Ditka in 1961, 86 receptions by Sam LaPorta last season), the 119 reception number would also break the record for all tight ends. Ertz currently holds it with 116, set for the 2018 Eagles. The most receptions for any rookie, regardless of position, are the 105 snagged by Puka Nacua last season. Yes, Bowers is on pace for that one, too. Besides the Ditka yardage record, the milestones that Bowers might hit are a testament to an increasingly pass-happy NFL that knows how to use tight ends in unprecedented ways. If Bowers entered the league 20 years ago -- 10 years ago, even! -- it's almost certain he would not be on this pace. With that said: Holy smokes, this kid is good. Pound for pound, he's one of the best yards-after-catch players in football right now, and he catches everything. Most tight ends aren't reliable enough separators and receivers to bear the responsibility of weekly double-digit target status, as prime Kelce did. But I think Bowers easily clears that bar. If anyone is going to become the next Kelce among all the great young tight ends (Trey McBride, LaPorta, etc.), I'd take Bowers over the field.
2-0: That's the Steelers' record this season in games in which they have not scored a touchdown. The rest of the NFL combined is 2-19. And over the past two decades, only one other team (2016 Rams) won multiple games without scoring a touchdown. I'm not sure if this is good or bad news. It's bad news that the Steelers did not score a touchdown yet again Sunday against the Ravens. The main point of offense is scoring touchdowns, with things like time of possession and field position falling into secondary importance. The Steelers had four red zone trips in 13 drives and ended with three field goals and a turnover. That's very bad and puts a hard ceiling on how far this team can go against a devastating AFC playoff field. But it's good news that the Steelers can win games like this. They are built to play low-scoring games in which they control the football, avoid turnovers and win with their defense on the field; that's exactly what happened on Sunday against the Ravens, who have one of the top offenses. The ideal formula for Pittsburgh still inarguably includes a touchdown or two, but when you play such strong situational football as Mike Tomlin's Steelers, you actually have a punching chance in games when you can't score at all. One last, critical note: Over the past few weeks, we've seen games with multiple misses from many of the league's best kickers: Jake Elliott, Younghoe Koo, Evan McPherson and even Justin Tucker in this very game. Pittsburgh's Chris Boswell? He was 6-for-6, including three from 50-plus yards. Boswell is now the only kicker in history with at least three games of six made field goals, two of which came this season. The Steelers' style of play means they have to trust their kicker with their life, and Boswell has earned that trust.
0: That's how many rush attempts Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had against the Bills on Sunday. It's his first game with zero rushing attempts since Week 5 last season and only the ninth such game of his career. Mahomes has long been one of the most devastating scramblers in the NFL, and this season has been no different. Entering Week 11, Mahomes was scrambling on 6.5% of his dropbacks -- right around league average. But on third and fourth downs, that scramble rate doubled to 12.3%, second highest in the league. It was a huge part of his late-down success, as he had 10 first downs or touchdowns on 14 late-down scrambles entering the game against the Bills. Overall on third and fourth downs, Mahomes was first in the league with a 53.8% first-down/touchdown rate. Then he ran into Buffalo, where he got three first downs on eight late-down dropbacks, five of which were pressured. He took two sacks and never got out of the pocket. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Mahomes' worst game on late downs was against the Bengals, when he produced 4.8 yards per dropback; against the Bills, he had 2.8. The magic for Mahomes this season has been in his ability to pick up key first downs. Get a rid of that, and this undefeated Chiefs team becomes suddenly beatable. 'Monday Night Meh'Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from "Monday Night Football" and break down what it means for the rest of the season. For 10 weeks of this season, I have given earnest recaps and takeaways from "Monday Night Football." We made it to Week 11 before we were dealt a game with no significant takeaway. The Cowboys have now played six straight home games in which they've been down by at least 20 points, which is an NFL record. They've lost five games in a row for the first time since 2015. But also: What did you think was going to happen to the Cowboys on Monday? A rallying win for a beloved coach in Mike McCarthy? Quarterback Dak Prescott was already barely keeping this offense afloat, and now it's Cooper Rush who is floundering behind a leaky offensive line, suffering from a poor running game and wondering where the pass catchers are besides CeeDee Lamb. Defensively, Dallas is closer to full health, but it hasn't been a serious unit all season. The Cowboys are no good, but if you learned that this past Monday night, you haven't been paying attention all season. They need a new coaching staff and an infusion of younger, pluckier talent. (The Texans are also far from perfect, but again ... if you learned that Monday night, you haven't been paying enough attention, either.)
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