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Wednesday, November 3
Updated: November 4, 7:43 PM ET
 
War Room: Chiefs (5-2) at Colts (5-2)

The War Room

Kansas City offense vs. Indianapolis defense
Ideally, the Chiefs would like to run the ball 40-plus times to control the time of possession and keep their defense well rested. Bam Morris, Tony Richardson, Donnell Bennett and Mike Cloud are doing an excellent job of sharing the load as witnessed last week when they combined for 98 yards on 38 carries. However, the Colts will stack the line of scrimmage with a lot of eight-man fronts to defend against the run and dare the Chiefs to beat them in the air.

CHIEFS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5
Pass 24
Tot. Yds. 17
Scoring 6
Int's allowed 7
Sacks allowed 8
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 18
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 20
Turnover differential -13

Indianapolis has yielded 98.6 yards per game on the ground and should be even more stout against a team like the Chiefs that will struggle to sustain drives by throwing the ball. Colts strong safety Tito Wooten will undoubtedly play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual and create more of a 4-4 look on obvious running downs. The Colts get great upfield pressure from their defensive ends, Chad Bratzke and Shawn King, which means that outside linebackers Mike Peterson and Cornelius Bennett play much bigger roles in the run defense because they are responsible for plugging the off-tackle holes that open up.

Middle linebacker Michael Barber is the key to the Colts' run defense against Kansas City. Barber needs to stack up strong in the "phone booth," stringing the Chiefs' inside running game to the outside where there is great penetration and containment. If Barber fills the holes inside and holds his ground, Kansas City's powerful running game will be neutralized, and the Chiefs will be forced to throw the ball to win the game.

The Colts secondary is going to be exposed a bit on Sunday, on purpose, to provoke Kansas City to go up top with the ball. Cornerback Tyrone Poole will play press coverage on the line of scrimmage against wide receiver Derrick Alexander. Free safety Jason Belser will cheat to Poole's side, giving the corner help in the deep third if he bites on some of Alexander's underneath moves.

This means that cornerback Jeff Burris will matchup man-on-man against No. 2 receiver Kevin Lockett. Burris will be forced to play soft coverage because he will get little help behind him with all the eight-man fronts that the Colts are expected to play.

The Chiefs are going to have to open up the playbook more in order to take advantage of the outside matchups that they will be given in the passing game. The difference in this contest will be quarterback Elvis Grbac's ability to burn the Colts off of the play-action fake when he is presented with single-coverage on his receivers down the field.

Indianapolis offense vs. Kansas City defense
Indianapolis' balance on offense and ability to manipulate defensive schemes has distinguished this unit as one of the most explosive and diverse attacks in the NFL. Rookie running back Edgerrin James has established himself as one of the top backs in the league with his consistent play in the Colts' first seven games. James is averaging more than 90 yards per game as a rookie and also has proven himself as a reliable blocking back as well as a receiver out of the backfield.

COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 2
Tot. Yds. 4
Scoring 3
Int's allowed 8
Sacks allowed 4
CHIEFS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 5
vs. Pass 14
Total yds. allowed 9
# of Ints. 4
# of Sacks 17
Turnover differential +7

The Chiefs are in an interesting predicament defensively. They lead the league in the giveaway/takeaway category with a plus-13 because of their aggressive style of play up front. They use outside linebackers Derrick Thomas and Donnie Edwards as rush ends to get great upfield pursuit, but they are putting themselves at risk against the Colts if they overpursue.

The key for the Chiefs is going to be to get upfield off the edges, but to do so while keeping great containment. They cannot afford to let James get outside with a good angle to the sideline because of his great burst and speed in the open field. James' increased role in the passing game is cause for even greater concern as the Chiefs look to pressure Peyton Manning. If Kansas City uses all seven men up front to create a pass rush, it puts them at a severe disadvantage against the dump-off pass to James out of the backfield.

Kansas City needs to be able to use the rush to not only get to Manning, but also to funnel James back inside. The outside linebackers are going to have to be aware in pass rush and recognize when James is looking to get to the flats. If Thomas and Bennett are not aware on the rush and break it off to cover James, the Colts will be able to pick up a lot of yardage in the short passing game against the blitz.

The one advantage that the Chiefs have is a very stable secondary that should be able to hold up against the Colts receiving corps downfield. Cornerback Chris Dishman will play aggressive, press coverage close to the line of scrimmage on wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Dishman is comforted by the fact that he will get help in the deep third from free safety Jerome Woods.

Woods is the key to the Chiefs' pass defense Sunday. Woods needs to cheat over to Dishman's side and keep everything in front of him. The Chiefs can afford to give up some yardage underneath, but with a struggling offense, Kansas City cannot give up any cheap plays to the Colts' passing game. That would force Kansas City's offense to play catch-up football.

On the other side, James Hasty is capable of covering the Colts No. 2 receiver, Terrence Wilkins in single-man coverage. Hasty can shut Wilkins out of this game and force Indy's passing game to become more one-dimensional. In nickel situations, cornerback Eric Warfield has proven capable of handling team's No. 3 receivers. Warfield continues to play impressive tight coverage even when teams have targeted him in the passing game.

Special teams
Pete Stoyanovich has been consistent as usual this season, connecting on 11 of 14 field-goal attempts, with a long of 51 yards. Punter Daniel Pope has shown a big leg, averaging 42.9 yards per punt, but his directional kicking is a concern. He is taking his coverage units out of position, and he has also not taken advantage of punting position, landing just eight punts inside the 20-yard line on the season.

NFL RANK
Category KC IND
Punt return avg. 12 21
Kickoff return avg. 20 14
Opp. punt return avg. 6 31
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 4 19
Time of possession 10 12

The Chiefs desperately need Tamarick Vanover to return to his job of returning punts. He has been nicked up all season and has averaged just 11.3 yards per return on the season.

Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt has not been impressive, but has only missed four of 16 kicks. His leg strength has been a concern with a long of just 43 yards, but his mechanics seem consistent, and he should be reliable. The Colts' punt coverage units are of grave concern. They are allowing a league-worst 17.8 yards per punt return.

Key matchups

  • Colts WRs Harrison and Jerome Pathon vs. Chiefs CBs Hasty and Reggie Tongue
    The Chiefs are confident enough in their cornerbacks that they will leave them alone on an island on a lot of run downs, in order to play an extra man in the box. However, the Chiefs are going to need help in the deep third, especially on Harrison's side, in order to avoid the big play and to force the Colts to sustain drives.

  • Colts OT Tarik Glenn vs. Chiefs DE Leslie O'Neal
    This is a classic matchup between two of the best at what they do in the NFL. Glenn has done an excellent job of protecting Manning's backside all season long against the best in the business. On Sunday, Glenn will again be faced with a stiff challenge when he lines up against O'Neal. O'Neal has been battling some injury problems this season, but he is still a game-breaking pass rusher off the end in certain situations.

  • Chiefs RB Morris vs. Indianapolis front seven
    The only way that the Chiefs will be able to stay with the firepower of the Colts offense is to keep them on the sidelines. Morris is going to have to carry the load on Sunday in hopes of wearing down the front seven of the Colts while simultaneously chewing time off the clock.

    The Chiefs will win if ...

  • Morris runs the ball 25-plus times. The Chiefs cannot afford to lose the time-of-possession battle. Against the Colts, the key will be to establish a running game that will keep the Chiefs out of third-and-long situation and allow them to sustain some drives. Morris will have to pound it out inside against the Colts and pick up three and four yards an attempt in order for his offense to hold onto the ball.

  • Grbac limits his mistakes and protects the ball. Grbac continues to improve as far as knowing his role. He finally realizes that he needs to be a caretaker on this offense instead of being the playmaker. On Sunday, it is important for Grbac to lead this team by committing very few errors and by throwing no interceptions. If the Chiefs hold onto the ball and take time off the clock, it will give their defense a chance to rest and keep the Colts' high-octane offense off the field.

  • The linebacking corps can blitz Manning without getting burnt underneath. The Chiefs want to get after Manning, but they also realize Manning's ability to burn the opponent when they are caught out of position. Look for the Chiefs to run a lot of zone-blitzes that will mix up the coverage looks and make sure that there is personnel responsible for every zone of the field.

    The Colts will win if ...

  • They get Harrison in motion and vary his starting positions to give the receiver a better chance of breaking free off the line of scrimmage. Because of his explosive start to the season and natural ability to take over a game, Harrison is a marked man. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore is going to have to find a way to get Harrison free off the line of scrimmage and create better angles for Harrison to get into his routes.

  • They run the ball at Thomas. The Chiefs linebacker has rejuvenated his career in Kansas City, but he is having trouble when teams run right at him. The Colts need to assign either a tight end or pulling offensive lineman to get out and attack Thomas in the run game. James should have great success when running at Thomas' side and should be able to catch Thomas off guard when he get too far up the field against draws and counters on obvious passing downs.

  • The defense can force the Chiefs into a lot of third-and-long situations. Kansas City does not want to have to throw the ball to win. Indianapolis will dare Kansas City to throw the ball on first and second downs by playing man-to-man on their outside receivers and walking up the safeties in run support. If the Colts force third-and-long situations for the Chiefs, they are going to tee off on Grbac with the pass rush and get out to an early lead.

    The War Room edge
    This is a great test as to where the Chiefs really stand in the AFC. Kansas City has been winning games with excellent defense and mistake-free offense -- Gunther Cunningham style -- but how long can it last? The Chiefs head into Indianapolis to find out how effective this system is against one of the best in the league. The Colts have proven that they are the real deal.

    Week in and week out, Indianapolis continues to execute on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are going to try to slow down the tempo of this contest, but the Colts' offensive guns are too much for Kansas City to keep up with. The Chiefs will keep it close into the third quarter, but the Colts should run away with it once they establish some rhythm on the offensive side of the ball.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com




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