Wednesday, November 3 Updated: November 4, 7:43 PM ET War Room: Chiefs (5-2) at Colts (5-2) The War Room |
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Kansas City offense vs. Indianapolis defense
Indianapolis has yielded 98.6 yards per game on the ground and should be even more stout against a team like the Chiefs that will struggle to sustain drives by throwing the ball. Colts strong safety Tito Wooten will undoubtedly play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual and create more of a 4-4 look on obvious running downs. The Colts get great upfield pressure from their defensive ends, Chad Bratzke and Shawn King, which means that outside linebackers Mike Peterson and Cornelius Bennett play much bigger roles in the run defense because they are responsible for plugging the off-tackle holes that open up. Middle linebacker Michael Barber is the key to the Colts' run defense against Kansas City. Barber needs to stack up strong in the "phone booth," stringing the Chiefs' inside running game to the outside where there is great penetration and containment. If Barber fills the holes inside and holds his ground, Kansas City's powerful running game will be neutralized, and the Chiefs will be forced to throw the ball to win the game. The Colts secondary is going to be exposed a bit on Sunday, on purpose, to provoke Kansas City to go up top with the ball. Cornerback Tyrone Poole will play press coverage on the line of scrimmage against wide receiver Derrick Alexander. Free safety Jason Belser will cheat to Poole's side, giving the corner help in the deep third if he bites on some of Alexander's underneath moves. This means that cornerback Jeff Burris will matchup man-on-man against No. 2 receiver Kevin Lockett. Burris will be forced to play soft coverage because he will get little help behind him with all the eight-man fronts that the Colts are expected to play. The Chiefs are going to have to open up the playbook more in order to take advantage of the outside matchups that they will be given in the passing game. The difference in this contest will be quarterback Elvis Grbac's ability to burn the Colts off of the play-action fake when he is presented with single-coverage on his receivers down the field.
Indianapolis offense vs. Kansas City defense
The Chiefs are in an interesting predicament defensively. They lead the league in the giveaway/takeaway category with a plus-13 because of their aggressive style of play up front. They use outside linebackers Derrick Thomas and Donnie Edwards as rush ends to get great upfield pursuit, but they are putting themselves at risk against the Colts if they overpursue. The key for the Chiefs is going to be to get upfield off the edges, but to do so while keeping great containment. They cannot afford to let James get outside with a good angle to the sideline because of his great burst and speed in the open field. James' increased role in the passing game is cause for even greater concern as the Chiefs look to pressure Peyton Manning. If Kansas City uses all seven men up front to create a pass rush, it puts them at a severe disadvantage against the dump-off pass to James out of the backfield. Kansas City needs to be able to use the rush to not only get to Manning, but also to funnel James back inside. The outside linebackers are going to have to be aware in pass rush and recognize when James is looking to get to the flats. If Thomas and Bennett are not aware on the rush and break it off to cover James, the Colts will be able to pick up a lot of yardage in the short passing game against the blitz. The one advantage that the Chiefs have is a very stable secondary that should be able to hold up against the Colts receiving corps downfield. Cornerback Chris Dishman will play aggressive, press coverage close to the line of scrimmage on wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Dishman is comforted by the fact that he will get help in the deep third from free safety Jerome Woods. Woods is the key to the Chiefs' pass defense Sunday. Woods needs to cheat over to Dishman's side and keep everything in front of him. The Chiefs can afford to give up some yardage underneath, but with a struggling offense, Kansas City cannot give up any cheap plays to the Colts' passing game. That would force Kansas City's offense to play catch-up football. On the other side, James Hasty is capable of covering the Colts No. 2 receiver, Terrence Wilkins in single-man coverage. Hasty can shut Wilkins out of this game and force Indy's passing game to become more one-dimensional. In nickel situations, cornerback Eric Warfield has proven capable of handling team's No. 3 receivers. Warfield continues to play impressive tight coverage even when teams have targeted him in the passing game.
Special teams
The Chiefs desperately need Tamarick Vanover to return to his job of returning punts. He has been nicked up all season and has averaged just 11.3 yards per return on the season. Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt has not been impressive, but has only missed four of 16 kicks. His leg strength has been a concern with a long of just 43 yards, but his mechanics seem consistent, and he should be reliable. The Colts' punt coverage units are of grave concern. They are allowing a league-worst 17.8 yards per punt return.
Key matchups
The Chiefs are confident enough in their cornerbacks that they will leave them alone on an island on a lot of run downs, in order to play an extra man in the box. However, the Chiefs are going to need help in the deep third, especially on Harrison's side, in order to avoid the big play and to force the Colts to sustain drives.
This is a classic matchup between two of the best at what they do in the NFL. Glenn has done an excellent job of protecting Manning's backside all season long against the best in the business. On Sunday, Glenn will again be faced with a stiff challenge when he lines up against O'Neal. O'Neal has been battling some injury problems this season, but he is still a game-breaking pass rusher off the end in certain situations.
The only way that the Chiefs will be able to stay with the firepower of the Colts offense is to keep them on the sidelines. Morris is going to have to carry the load on Sunday in hopes of wearing down the front seven of the Colts while simultaneously chewing time off the clock.
The Chiefs will win if ...
The Colts will win if ...
The War Room edge
Week in and week out, Indianapolis continues to execute on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are going to try to slow down the tempo of this contest, but the Colts' offensive guns are too much for Kansas City to keep up with. The Chiefs will keep it close into the third quarter, but the Colts should run away with it once they establish some rhythm on the offensive side of the ball.
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